The Daily Widget – Monday, Aug 11 – Obama 344, McCain 194 – Cross-tabbing Gender and Race

[phrigndumass]

Contents:
1. Tidbits
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map and State Chart
8. Links, Definitions and Sources


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1. TIDBITS – Cross-tabbing Gender and Race

After digging through all the state data we compiled together last week, I have arrived at initial vote projections by gender and ethnicity for this year. I will update these figures to reflect the actual registered numbers once the voter registration deadlines pass.

Gender

I am projecting the following distribution of votes by gender this year:

Female – 67,675,470 (53.4%)
Male – 59,045,530 (46.6%)

This is an increase of 2.3 million female voters and an increase of 2.2 million male voters over 2004. State trends since 2000 show that male voters are increasing at a faster rate than female voters, so the 2008 numbers reflect a 0.1 percentage point drop for females (was 53.5%) and a 0.1 bump for males (was 46.5%).

Ethnicity

I am projecting the following distribution of votes by race this year:

African American – 15,387,233 (12.1%)
Hispanic (all) – 8,783,841 (6.9%)
White Non-Hispanic – 101,477,047 (80.1%)
All Other – 1,072,879 (0.9%)

This is an increase of 10% since 2004 for African American voters, and an increase of 16% since 2004 for Latino voters. The other two categories increased by a smaller 2% rate over 2004.

Plugging These Numbers In

Two recent national polls released crosstab data; one is a daily tracker (Gallup) and the other is a monthly tracker (Research 2000). According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Gallup has a pollster-introduced error ranking of +2.40, while Research 2000 has a pollster-introduced error ranking of +1.73. (Gallup introduces more error than Research 2000.)



Link: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/gallups_crosstab_trove.php



Link: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/28/114910/877/167/558168


Observations:

Gallup calls it a close race, but Research 2000 shows a much wider margin for Obama. By gender, Gallup shows Obama +9 for females and McCain +7 for males, while Research 2000 shows Obama +22 for females and a tie among males.

By ethnicity, Gallup shows five points more overall for McCain among African Americans than Research 2000, and a whopping 14 points more overall for McCain among Latinos. Gallup also shows four points more overall for McCain among white voters.

I’ll share more new crosstab information soon. Thanks to everyone for helping with this project!


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2. WIDGETS



^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


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3. NEW STATE POLLS

Three new state polls were released since Friday morning. Michigan and Washington both remain blue without changing columns, and Missouri stays weak red. At least it’s consistent.


Michigan Obama 49, McCain 45 (Rasmussen, 8/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Missouri Obama 44, McCain 50 (Rasmussen, 8/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Washington Obama 54, McCain 42 (Rasmussen, 8/6, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


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4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES



^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)


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5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).


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6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING



^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


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7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP AND STATE CHART








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8. LINKS, DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[fight4my3sons]

1. Good morning, phrigndumass!

Thank you for the initial gender and race voter projections.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

2. Good morning :)

Fun Fact: 53% of Maine voters are female.

:donut: :hi: :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

3. That is a fun fact!

:bounce:

[tekisui]

4. knr!

Bookmarking for a closer look a the cross-tab project.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

5. It does take some time to go through :)

There'll be more soon. Thanks for the links last week.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

6. Off to work kick

:kick: Have a good day

[phrigndumass]

7. .

[Demeter]

8. Stop the Numbers, I'm Drowning!

Can you put a little English in there?

Why does it look more and more like everything is going pear-shaped? Is it a summer slump? Anticipation of the Convention?

Obama has done everything except walk on water--what does a Democrat have to do to get elected around here?

[phrigndumass]

9. That must be the reason for the low response today :)

Flood of information. Now that I look back over it, it seems barely decipherable, lol :blush:

Quick analysis of the graphs:

Obama's indices are beginning to level off after their recent drops. His electoral vote projection hasn't changed much in the past week, and his popular vote projection is beginning to rise again. McCain's popular vote projection is also rising, though.

Trading is down for Obama, but national polls are on the upswing. Trading always seems to lag behind the national polls. Trading for our swing states continues to spiral downward.

About those gender and race crosstabs:

I spent the past week projecting voter turnout in every state based on gender, ethnicity, and age (I'm still working on the age section). I used historical data and trends to make these calculations.

National polls sometimes show how certain demographics are polling (gender, race, age), and I plan on using their demographics data to double-check the state polls for errors and bias. I'm all set up to do that now, whenever new polls are released.

Today I am showing an initial comparison between a daily poll (Gallup) and a monthly poll (Research 2000). Using only the demographics data for gender and race for each poll, each chart in the Tidbits section shows the potential outcome of the election depending on how the Undecideds split. These two polls are the extremes as of July 30.

The question to ask is: Do we agree with each pollster's demographic results, which are displayed in each chart? If not, which one seems more right?

For instance, 57% of Hispanic voters are polling for Obama according to Gallup, but Research 2000 shows 65% of Hispanic voters polling for Obama. Compare the two, and the one that seems more right to you will show you the outcome of the election according to your beliefs.

:D

(let me know if this still looks like matrix code)

[Demeter]

10. That Does Help

I'm sure with a few iterations I will begin to find my feet under me again.

Maybe you ought to get a contract with Obama's campaign to pay for your hobby....

[phrigndumass]

13. Great!

Thank you for being direct with me! I could spend all day knowing what I mean, but that doesn't do anybody else any good. It really helps when someone says, "Speak English."

If I were paid for this, it wouldn't be a hobby :D

:hi:

[Demeter]

16. It Would Be a Hobby That Pays for Itself

That's the best kind.


Did you hear how many new registered Democrats there are, in those states that register by party?
Want to try to figure out how to add that to your prognosticator?

I'd bet money that any new Democrat is voting for Obama.....

[myrna minx]

11. K&R.

:hi: It was a lot of info to sort through. Thanks so much for your hard work. While I have to admit I was slack jawed and mouth breathing while I was reading through this, it was the receiver's comprehension issues, not the sender's information. :D

[phrigndumass]

14. Thanks myrna :)

The sender wants the receiver to comprehend the information. I'm never offended by questions because I sometimes neglect the clarity of the message.

:hi:

[fight4my3sons]

12. thanks :)

That helps. You know how I get when I see all those rows of numbers. :crazy:

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

15. yw :)

Good evening! :D (yup, just saying those words makes me feel like a vampire, lol)