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I think Kerry should set-aside $5 million and do it towards the end of October, right before the election.
By then, Kerry's campaign will know: - Kerry strengths and weaknesses - Bush strengths and weaknesses - issues that swing voters care most about
The Kerry campaign will then be able to tailor the infomercial's message with those facts in-mind. With a well-written infomercial, the campaign could reinforce our own base's turnout and convince last-minute undecideds to go out to the polls (instead of staying home, as many do). It could also serve to demoralize the GOP base: if they see this infomercial as a great boost to Kerry, and if the race is nearly tied, they may well think to themselves, "well.. this is going to bounce him past the victory line. No bother voting this year.."
And the timing would be important also: If there's an infomercial bought, say, on Halloween night (Sunday before the election), the Bush campaign and the media would then have less than 28 hours in which to smear and twist Kerry's words in the infomercial. A 9PM CST showing (right after most trick-or-treating is done) would be nice for reaching those crucial swing states in the middle of the country.
What's more.. Kerry would probably get a nice uptick in the polls from a well-crafted infomercial - like the one that gave Perot his lead over Bush & Clinton in 1992. Sure, it would be a short-lived boost, but we'd only need it to last through election day.. a mere 50 hours.
I've been advocating the last-minute infomercial even since Perot demonstrated that they do indeed work. It'd be at least as effective as spending the $5 or 10 million on TV ads in scattered states, and there'd also be the possibility that the nationwide rising tide would raise all Democratic boats down the ticket. If the Kerry campaign ignores this advice, it does so at its own peril..
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