The Turning Point - Past Elections

[garthranzz]

In some presidential elections, there was a single moment when the election was decided; others had moments when momentum swung and a candidate gained the initiative, if not the election. Others may have been defined by an ad, which in itself did not determine the outcome, but created the narrative. Here is a list of some. Thoughts, responses, alternatives?

1948: Dewey, at a railroad rally in Illinois, when an engineer accidentally backed up the train a few feet, snapped: "this is the first lunatic I've had as an engineer. He probably ought to be shot at sunrise, but I guess we can let him off because nobody was hurt." Dewey, the prototypical elitist, lost enough blue collar votes in midwestern states to lose the election. (This from and thanks to slate.com)

1952: ?

1956: ?

1960: The first TV debate, where Nixon looked like who he was - a foreshadowing of Yasser Arafat. Tricky Dick looked Tricky. (Historical fact: One reason Nixon did not question JFK's win in IL (and TX, thanks to LBJ) is because his wins in CA and Hawaii (and/or another state - I forget offhand, but there were two) would have also been questioned - for the same reason.

1964: The mushroom cloud ad - which ran just once.

1968: Not sure - the DNC convention?

1972: Muskie crying because his wife was attacked. (Some might say the revelation that McGovern's first VP choice had had electro-shock, but I think the election was over by then. Tricky Dick's smear campaign had done its job on Muskie.)

1976: ?

1980: Iran-contra, but also the secret deal Reagan got from Iran not to release the hostages before the election.

1984: Reagan's quip in the debate that he would not take advantage of Mondale's youth. Mondale himself said, even as he laughed, he knew he'd just lost the election.

1988: Willie Horton, Dukakis in the tank (literally, not figuratively), or his hesitating when asked what he'd do if something horrible happened to his wife - which?

1992: It's the economy, stupid was the phrase, but when was the moment? Oh, yeah, when "read my lips, no new taxes" came back to bite GHWB.

1996: ?

2000: Gore's audible sighing during the first debate (supposed to have had a silent microphone, I think)? The lock-box metaphor? I know the election was stolen - but what gave Bush enough cover to make it credible?

2004: Swift Boat Liars? Flip-flop label? Even though Kerry had the line that should have turned things around: You can be consistent, and wrong.

Yeah, this is going someplace. Other than 1984 and arguably 1960 - as much what JFK did as what Nixon looked like - all the others were negative turning points - something the candidate did, or allowed to be done to him, that changed or cemented a public perception.

BUT in each case the successful candidate turned back an equally damaging charge. (Well, not in each case. Not against LBJ in '64; I don't recall if there was one against Reagan in '80 (or '84). Clinton had bimbo explosions. GWB had AWOL alcoholic druggie past, then failure to protect us (9/11) and lying us into war. Nixon, of course, was always Nixon. So, how come they avoided the media banana peel? (Aside from GWB, and maybe even not the first time around, don't claim media bias.)

Thoughts? Suggestions?

[GoesTo11]

1. 1956 was Fonzie's "My Bike Likes Ike" speech.

1980 couldn't have been Iran-Contra. Do you mean Iran hostages?

Really though, I think this is taking the media line too quickly. In each election there are all sorts of moments. Take 2000, for example. Yes, Gore sighed, but he still should have won - the actual turning point was when the Supreme Court ruled. Dukakis just had too many weak moments. 1992 - Perot had a big impact, then picking Gore, the convention, the bus tour, habitat for humanity - all gave Clinton a great buzz, which GHWB couldn't come close to offsetting out of it as he was.

Each election is different. We can learn from the past, but history rarely has iron-clad rules.

[grantcart]

2. 1976 one of the few debate triggered gaffes

Ford was trying to show his expertise on foreign affairs and when responding to Carter making a remark about Eastern Europe stated that he did not think that the people of the Eastern Bloc "would consider themselves dominated by the Soviet Union".

Everyone gasped at the remark and the commentators had all they needed to focus on. Despite that Ford put in a valiant effort barnstorming like hell and almost caught Carter, his voice literally giving out the last day of the campaign.

[grantcart]

3. 1996 Bob Dole had a fall off of a stage that brought attention to his age

[nsd]

4. 1952: Eisenhower announced that he would go to Korea.

1980: Reagan-Carter debate ("There you go again ...")