7/18 Election Model: Why election sites giving McCain > 3% win prob are MATHEMATICALLY INCORRECT- x

[tiptoe]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x3647696 - X

[tiptoe]

1. 7/18 EM: Charts, Summary and National Model

2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: July 18

?click">Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend

?click">Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection

?click">Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends

?click">Chart   Battleground-State Polls + Projections

?click">Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability

?click">Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend

?click">Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend

?click">Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability

?click">Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

?click">Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency

 2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 

Uncounted  &  Switched Votes

?click">Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share

?click">Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote

 

“I’m glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list.”  — Sancho

 

This
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected

7/18/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
ELECTORAL VOTE

Obama
McCain
 45.59 (53.73) 
 39.26 (46.27) 
 47.60 (52.89) 
 42.40 (47.11) 
54.68
45.32
53.60
46.40
404
134

    

15-Poll

Last Poll

Sample

 

NATIONAL MODEL

 

5-Poll Mov Avg

 

5-Poll MA, 2-party Proj

Poll MA

Poll

Trend
                      
Rasmussen
Gallup
ABC/WP
NYT/CBS
Quinnipiac

Newsweek
Pew Resrch
CNN
DemCorp
Time

Bloomberg
USA Today
Newsweek
FOX
Rasmussen

Date
        
7/17
7/16
7/14
7/13
7/13

7/10
6/29
6/29
6/25
6/25

6/23
6/19
6/19
6/18
6/18

Size
              
3000 LV
2652 RV
--
1796 RV
1725 LV

1037 RV
1574 RV
906 RV
2000 RV
805 RV

1115 RV
1310 LV
896 RV
900 RV
3000 LV

 

Obama
        
47
46
50
45
50

44
48
50
49
47

49
50
51
45
48

McCain
        
46
44
42
39
41

41
40
45
45
43

37
44
36
41
45

Spread
        
1
2
6
8
9

3
8
5
4
4

12
6
15
4
3

 

Obama
        
47.6
47.0
47.4
48.4
48.2

47.6
48.6
49.0
49.2
48.4

48.6
48.2
48.0
46.6
47.0

McCain
        
42.4
41.4
40.6
41.8
42.4

42.8
42.0
42.8
41.0
40.2

40.6
41.6
41.8
42.6
42.8

 

Obama
        
53.60
53.96
54.60
54.28
53.84

53.36
54.24
53.92
55.08
55.24

55.08
54.32
54.12
53.08
53.12

McCain
        
46.40
46.04
45.40
45.72
46.16

46.64
45.76
46.08
44.92
44.76

44.92
45.68
45.88
46.92
46.88

Diff
        
7.2
7.9
9.2
8.6
7.7

6.7
8.5
7.8
10.2
10.5

10.2
8.6
8.2
6.2
6.2

Win Prob
          
99.996
99.998
na
99.986
99.929

98.477
99.962
99.086
100
99.853

99.965
99.912
99.318
96.77
99.968

MoE
          
1.79%
1.90%
na
2.31%
2.36%

3.04%
2.47%
3.26%
2.19%
3.45%

2.93%
2.71%
3.27%
3.27%
1.79%

 

 

There is a famous street card game scam called Three-Card Monte in which the victim, or mark, is tricked into betting a sum of money if he can find the money card among three face-down cards. Election Fraud is a analagous to Three-Card Monte. What you see is not what you get. In this game the voter is the mark. Election models which project the True Vote are doomed to fail in a Three-Card Monte election.
...