Pretend that you are Majority Whip Dick Durbin for a moment

[Hippo_Tron]

And your task is to get the votes to sustain a filibuster on the FISA bill that was passed today. If you get to 40, your good friend Senator Obama has promised you that he will be the 41st vote that you need. Senator Kennedy can return to the Senate if absolutely necessary.

Here's the list of how everyone voted today...

http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=2&vote=00168

So the initial count is 28. Add Ted Kennedy and that's 29. Whitehouse, Mikulski, and Inouye are all pretty reliably liberal Senators from blue states. So we have 32. Max Baucus and Kent Conrad are from more libertarian western states and their colleagues from those states voted NEA so maybe I could convince them. That's 34. Casey usually pretty liberal except on abortion and is pretty popular so I could probably get him to switch. That's 35. Kohl is also usually pretty liberal and easily re-elected so that's 36.

At this point I'm left with Feinstein, Rockefeller, Pryor, Nelson, Nelson, Landrieu, Johnson, and Bayh. Feinstein is pretty hawkish but maybe I could convince her to see the light or at least do me a favor. That's 37. Rockefeller has been in the Senate for a long time and likely will never face a competitive challenge for the rest of his career. But he also sits on the intelligence committee and spent a great deal of time ironing out a bill that the President would sign. So getting him is iffy.

Best case scenario (and let me emphasize best case) I have 38 votes and I need to find two more from six centrists Democrats in very red states who always vote as though their re-election is coming up because even if they don't get a serious challenge this time around, they are likely to at some point before they become entrenched.

Can you see a scenario where we get 41 votes on this? Because I really can't.

[nam78_two]

1. You have a point-can't really see it with those 7

I would dump Feinstein in with the no-hope crowd.

Landrieu, Bayh and Feinstein-3 "Democrats" I can't stand (but still probably better than their Repuke alternatives-at least with Bayh and Landrieu. Now that is a scary thought).

[Hippo_Tron]

3. Infinitely better than their repuke alternatives

Landrieu does wonderful work for our veterans and military when her Repuke alternatives would rather use that money to give rich people tax cuts. She votes with her constituents on social issues because she pretty much has to. But on the less high-profile issues there is miles worth of difference between her and the people she runs against.

[nam78_two]

7. Good to know-I have mostly just followed their environmental track records

And Landrieu's is pretty bad (especially for a Dem).

[Hippo_Tron]

18. It's an oil producing state, no way to get elected without taking that into consideration

Believe me I'm an environmentalist and I will say the same thing about my state that I say about Michigan. Nobody from our delegation should ever chair a committee that oversees environmental legislation and under no circumstances should we have the first primary.

[cookie monster]

2. No Republicans voted Nay

None.

[RoyGBiv]

4. That's amazing ...

I've been lurking here all day watching the madness, and that's the *first* time I've seen someone say that so plainly.

Naturally I may have missed something and probably did, but still.

I'd just like to thank you for pointing that out.

And welcome to DU. :hi:

[Muttocracy]

8. hey, it's a whole OP now! :-D

[nam78_two]

5. And yet most so-called "libertarians" tend to vote Repuke

At least the ones I know :shrug: -I guess some "liberties" are more equal than others.
Welcome to DU btw :hi:.

[CakeGrrl]

9. There go those Republicans voting in "lockstep"

Just poking fun at the fact that that's frowned upon in these corners, though it proves effective depending on the situation.

So...

Why didn't the Democrats - not just Obama - do the same?

[snowbear]

11. You joined here just to tell us that?

......................... http://eliteleague.co.uk/forum/images/smilies/duh!.gif

[RoyGBiv]

12. Who knows ...

But considering the vast majority of the comments on DU today, everything from emigration announcements (and the associated "wish I could go with you" comments) to declarations that the FISA vote today is the final inspiration for people to leave the Democratic party, I'd say one could be forgiven for at least *thinking* it needed to be said.

Hell, I've wanted to say it a dozen times or more, but I've been here too long and am too cynical to think anyone would pay attention.

Perhaps a bit of new blood from people who can still see the obvious is what's needed around here.

[AtomicKitten]

6. The math just wasn't there for a filibuster.

[Clovis Sangrail]

10. I think a better question

is how many people would have joined a filibuster had Obama spoken out in favor of one, as he had in the past?
He's a very eloquent speaker and there's a good possibility he'll be the next president; I've got to imagine he could have had a significant affect on the outcome.

[Hippo_Tron]

19. Obama is a persuasive man, but tell me what Senators he could've convinced

Say Obama was willing to help Durbin and persuade other Senators. Give me 41 names and an explanation for how we get them.

[cliffordu]

13. Come on, tell the truth, you just wanted an excuse

to say "majority whip dick."

:rofl: :applause:

By the way - I believe your explanation of the above is spot on.

Kicked and recommended.

[Hippo_Tron]

20. HAHA I honestly hadn't even thought of it

[John Q. Citizen]

14. It's an interesting exercise. But the premises are far fetched.

If Barack had indeed said he would vote to sustain, if need be, i would ask him to lobby his fellow Senators, such as Landrieu, who might benefit from his presence at her campaign rally in LA.

I would also ask Senator Clinton to lobby Feinstein, Bayh, Pryor, and Nelson (Fla), since they were all prominent supporters during her presidential run.

[barack the house]

15. As I keep saying we have a long term journey to change hearts and minds to repair Ameirca.

[TexasObserver]

16. "If you want to be a politician, you have to know how to count." --- LBJ

The Democratic leadership knew there were not sufficient votes to filibuster. As you point out, which of the right of center Dems would we move on this vote? Feinstein? Nelson?

There are simply too many Democratic senators who wanted to go along on this one, for whatever reason.

[tkmorris]

17. What I would have liked to have seen...

Was Obama going to those Senators and telling them "Come January, your state can kiss my tight black ass, unless you vote against cloture right NOW". But of course, that would never happen.