Why I like Strategic Vision

[Feanorcurufinwe]

One could be angry that there is a GOP polling outfit going around and putting out polls heavily weighted towards showing Bush strength. But I think it will just keep people from getting complacent and help stimulate the high turnout that will give Kerry coattails.

Check out http://www.electoral-vote.com today. Suddenly it looks close again, but if you mouseover the states that changed, you'll see it's all based on Strategic Vision polls.

[fujiyama]

1. electoral-vote

is a stupid site. I wish everyone wouldn't flip everytime a state change from one designation to another. Several were goin on about how CA changed. If CA was really that close, then Kerry would be in extremely deep shit.

That is not the case. Polls should be looked at for the trends they show ove a period of time, not as snapshots. The EV site gives no info on the poll's internals, the firm, or even a link to the firm's poll! They had a GA poll where Kerry was down by 5-6 points. I knew that was BS right away because I checked strategic vision's site right away and the only GA poll they had showed Kerry trailing by 12-15 points.

However I do think you're right. For those on the left that do visit the site (and God they seem to love it), these strategic vision polls could be good motivation. Hopefully it will also encourage Nader voters to voting for Kerry, because the polls will all show the states so close. Hell, I think they should ditch Nader this time in "safe states" as well this time. I personally think people shouldn't take any state for granted. At the same time people shouldn't panic over one poll in a state that has very little liklehood of going for Bush.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

2. Well you can see the trends

on http://www.electoral-vote.com/pastpolls.html

I agree with your analysis, but as long as you understand his methodology, I find it a useful tool. And I can figure out how to find the raw poll data on my own.

This NYT site is really good for playing with your own projections, Senate, too.

[LouKYDem]

3. The CA poll is a good example...

of how many of the state polls are flawed. I actually like visiting electoral-vote.com personally, but I do realize that the number of flawed polls is very high.

However, what I did find interesting about the CA Survey USA poll (http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/CA040819pressen.pdf) is the fact more Republicans (246) were surveyed than Democrats (241) even, but yet Kerry still had a 3 point lead.