DUers Prepare- Gall(o)p Is About To Release A Poll On Battleground Ohio...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

gee- i wonder who they will have ahead....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. On CNN-Courtesy Of The Hirsute One

nt

[MallRat]

2. Lemme guess. Bush by 9?

:grr:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Don't Know....

Wolfie is building up the excitement...


I must be the biggest sucker in the world to let these hucksters and charlatans dictate my emotions...

[MallRat]

7. If he's building it up, maybe it's suprisingly good or bad for Bush.

I'm not holding my breath.

-MR

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. The Smart Money Says It Will Be * By A Couple

if it's greater than that I call bullshit...


Gore lost OH 51% -47% after pulling all his advertising three weeks before the election to focus on Florida

[West Coast Democrat]

3. Is he smiling or frowning?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. He Always Has A Goofy Grin... (nt)

[MikeG]

15. Condi's giving him a Lewinsky right now under the table.

[Kahuna]

60. He's trying to take like a man. You can tell he's quite chagrined though.

:evilgrin:

[Nite Owl]

6. Oh Geez we gotta hear

from Condi first? When did she crawl out from under her rock anyway?

[librechik]

8. they're going to soften us up with a good scolding from Condi first

what are we worried about? Moving around 70,00 troops won't upset any of our alliances at all!

Condi audio mysteriously and completely out of synch.

Just like real life

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Condi Rice Might Be Book Smart But She's The Most Conventional Thinker

I've ever seen...

[radfringe]

9. check out this Ohio poll

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x632954

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. TY- There's A Couple Of OH Polls Out There (nt)

[wicket]

11. any details yet?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. no

i am a sucker...


I'm probably going to be disappointed....

[radfringe]

14. Gallup 8/11

Gallup 8/11 bush 50 kerry 47
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. this is an OH Poll

probably similar results....

[radfringe]

19. see post 9 in this thread then n/t

[bain_sidhe]

41. Ah, yes... "LIKELY voters"...

Better known as "The Category In Which We Assume Kerry Supporters Won't Actually Vote." :eyes:

If you look on that polling report page, you'll see that among REGISTERD voters, it's Bush 48/Kerry 47

AND if you look at that page you'll see that the ONLY polls that have Bush ahead are the ones in which Gallup is involved.

Again, that page is http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

[MoonRiver]

17. Keep us posted. I won't watch his * kissing arse.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. I Despise Him...

I despise just about all the talking heads except Al Hunt and Mark Shields...

[MoonRiver]

29. I am starting to warm to Tweety. But that may be a transitory thing.

[MidwestTransplant]

20. Here's my guess

49 Bush 44 Kerry.

This is just my guess.

[West Coast Democrat]

22. If it's actually a Gallup poll, we have nothing to worry about....

it'll be absolutely irrelevant.

[MallRat]

25. It will be relevant if Kerry is miraculously leading.

If a GALLUP poll shows Kerry with any significant lead, the reality is far, far bleaker for Bush.

[West Coast Democrat]

28. True!

[fujiyama]

23. If they have Bush ahead by 5 points or so

It won't make much sense considering just a few weeks ago they had Kerry ahead by 6.

Then again Gallup polls swing wildly. The way they do things, they'll have Bush ahead.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Was Kerry Up That Much In Gall(o)p's OH Poll..

I know they had the Kerry-Edwards ticket down 14% in NC before they revised their poll....

[fujiyama]

30. I didn't know they revised the poll

What were the numbers after? The NC poll really was an outlier because every other poll showed Bush with a lead around 3-5 points.

Here's the link for the OH, FL, and MO polls they had around the convention. I think the FL poll has also been to be innacurate because two polls after the convention have shown Kerry with a 6-7 point lead. I do believe that MO is tied though still...

The OH poll had Kerry up by 6 w/out Nader. Up 5 with him.
\
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/07/25/states.poll/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. Perhaps "Revised" Is A Bad Choice....

I believe they came out with a new NC poll a couple of days later that showed a small * lead in NC

[fujiyama]

64. I think

that was the numbers for registered voters.

The likely voters gave Bush the 16 point lead, which made little sense considering that's a bigger margin than Bush beat Gore in the state by.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. I Am Always Comforted By The Fact That The August (sic) Statisticians

at Gall(o)p blew the 48, 76, and 00 elections...

[LuminousX]

33. Gallup used to be respected, what happened to them

They need to go back to the basics. I guess the modern world moves too fast for them.

[gratuitous]

24. And the winner is . . .

Beetle Bomb!!!!

{Made you look}

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. It's Coming After The Commercial

nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. 48% to 46% Kerry Among Likely Voters

52% to 42% among registered voters..


Their models are wack....

[MidwestTransplant]

37. Their LV model is said to suck this far out

Remember they had Shrub up 13 two weeks out. Just imagine how wacked it is now.

[Lex]

39. Holy crap.

.
Bush must be way, way down if they are showing Kerry up by 2.

And among registered voters--yikes.

[Zynx]

51. Their likely voter model is bullshit.

Also, I noticed that they showed their national numbers with Kerry up among women the same amount Bush was up among men and yet having Bush ahead. That is bunk because there are more female than male voters.

[canuckybee]

34. OMG OMG OMG

Kerry is ahead

[Placebo]

36. Within the Margin of Error with Likely Voters Though.

:shrug:

[canuckybee]

43. I know

but the promoted this poll so much for the last hour I was sure it would show Bush way ahead.

[MARALE]

54. I knew Bush would be ahead

Becaus ethat will show a great bump after the NYC convention. Just wait and see...

[Warren DeMontague]

44. Funny how they only play up the likely voters angle...

When it benefits the shrubbery.

[Old and In the Way]

61. Fear not.

Remember the primaries? The other story, aside from Kerry's almost running the table, was the turnout. The likely voter turnout is based on 2000 results. This is a whole new ballgame. I've been voting for Presidents since '72 and I think we will have the most energized turnout....ever. Now who is energized? The Republican voter? Pretty damn doubtful. The Democratic voter? You betcha.

Kerry in a landslide.

[Warren DeMontague]

63. My wacthword the past month or so has been "guarded optimism"

I don't think anyone wants to get complacent. But having a reasonable amount of hope is certainly warranted, in my view B-)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. The Disparity Between Likely And Registered Voters Is Huge...

I would think if you were going to err on turnout it would be on the high side this year....

[LuminousX]

42. GOTV is what it will be all about

[Lex]

45. I think there will be a large number of voters who haven't voted recently.

So I think they will not be in the "likely" voter category.

The truth is probably somewhere between likely voters and registered voters.

[LuminousX]

48. Agreed

18-24 year olds are not counted as likely voters but they are a highly motivated voting block this time around.

[Lex]

52. That too.

First time voters are not counted in the "likely" category.

Voters who didn't vote last time are not counted in the "likely" category.

I think there are going to be A LOT of voters voting for Kerry who would not be categorized as "likely" in these polls.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

49. They automatically discard all newly registered voters.

[Warren DeMontague]

WOOOOO-HOOOOOO!~!!!!!!~!~!~!~!~!~!!!

Even with the "likely voters" crap, they've still got Kerry.

No wonder Wolf looks like he's three burritos past maalox time.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. The Difference Between Likely And Registered Voters Is Strange...

I realize only about 50% of registered votes vote but that's a huge difference....

[DU GrovelBot]

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[Feanorcurufinwe]

47. Kerry 52 Bush 42 before they skew the numbers.

And Zahn says: no matter how you cut it it is a very tight race, directly after she showed that if you cut it as 'registered voters' instead of 'likely', it is not neccesarily going to be very tight.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

53. Gall(o)p Is All Over The Place...

I'll demonstrate it... Tell me if I'm right...


Among REGISTERED VOTERS nationwide Gallup has Bush up 48% -47%... Among Ohioans he's down 52% 42%


No way is Kerry running eleven points better in Ohio than the rest of the nation...


That makes no sense at all...

[King of New Orleans]

50. Gallup is still a sack of crap

The disparity in their models between registered and likely voters bear no resemblence to any other pollster out there.

[faithnotgreed]

57. who thinks they are setting up boy wonder for the post rnc bounce

[blm]

55. No matter, just add 5 Kerry points to ANY number from Gallup.

Then you'll be closer to the truth.

[West Coast Democrat]

56. Link

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/08/18/ohio/index.html

(but they don't explain what a "likely voter" is)

Kerry with slight lead

A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll of 761 registered Ohio voters, conducted between August 13-15, showed Kerry at 50 percent, followed by Bush at 41 percent and Independent candidate Ralph Nader at 5 percent. With Nader not an option, Kerry had 52 percent support to Bush's 42 percent. The sampling error, in both cases, was +/- 4 percentage points.

Kerry's advantage dropped significantly when only likely voters, 628 in the survey, were considered. Forty-seven percent of respondents sided with the Democratic senator, 45 percent with Bush and 4 percent with Nader.

The two-point gap held -- 48 percent for Kerry, 46 percent for Bush -- when Nader was not in the mix. The sampling error for this respondent pool was +/- 5 percentage points.

[Kahuna]

59. Right. I think we're talking a landslide for Kerry here.

:bounce:

[Old and In the Way]

62. Absolutely.

I think the registered voter's results will be much closer to reality. If "likely" is based on 2000 results, this data will be non-operative in 2004. There are millions of people motivated to vote this time around, and I think a clear majority are Democrats. The primaries were a clue as to what we can expect in November.

[Kahuna]

58. Wolf and Paula reading the results: Oh the humanity...

That that you repuke shills! :P