How big of a bump do you think Bush will get from his convention?

[WI_DEM]

Poll question: How big of a bump do you think Bush will get from his convention?

[Kadie]

1. They are going to have negative numbers

I predict -5 points.

[iconoclastic cat]

Seriously: I bet they dip.

[chuck555]

6. I will agree.

You might be too low though. They have nothing to sell.

[Kadie]

13. I think it depends on just how negative the republicans get

The democrats kept pretty much to a positive message with just a few jabs in here and there.

The republicans will probably do the opposite just for the reason you stated, they have nothing to sell. People get turned off when you get too negative, but they have no where else to go. I wouldn't be surprised if they get down and dirty and just blast Kerry and Edwards left and right.

I don't want to watch their convention, but it will be interesting to see how they play it.

[Comicstripper]

29. Yep

Kerry will have a 7-10 point lead after this convention (assuming he's got a 4-point lead now)

[Walt Starr]

2. Everybody knows that you get a 15 point bouce out of a convention

Otherwise, it's not a bounce.

Set the expectations HIGH right NOW!

[iconoclastic cat]

3. Oh, right!

20 points! Yeee-haw!

[Qutzupalotl]

4. 2 points, but it won't last.

It won't even be enough to put him ahead in the electoral college.

Within a week, he'll be back where he was, which is in a death spiral.

[phillybri]

5. One point tops...

What are they going to say that the American people haven't already heard 5,477,885,888 times???

[Qutzupalotl]

10. "We've turned a corner..."

"...and got stuck in an alley. Had to back out and ask for directions. There were winos and icky street people everywhere."

"Don't go back to the failed policies of Clinton-Gore. Stick with the failed policies of Reagan-Bush."

"Don't change horses in mid-apocalypse."

[Feanorcurufinwe]

7. Bush needs at least a 10-15% bounce to maintain the pretense of viability

[Doosh]

8. 2pts maximum

[TheFarseer]

9. I think if they touch on the right issues

they can get a really good bounce. If they start beating the family values drum, they will get alot of mileage out of that. Sad but true. Conversely, I don't think they can get any mileage out of the war on terror and the economy and taxes will be hard but maybe doable.

[Nimrod]

11. I vote none

Or at least any bump will be so small as to be nonexistent. I think the lines have pretty well been drawn.

[denny1958]

12. One Point ...Tops.

If the media does their job and shows the protests fairly, it may not even be a one point bump.
It is well known to Karl Rove and others that whenever Bush speaks on television his approval ratings actually drop. This explains why the boy king has done less press conferences than any pres in modern history. I expect his speech to be short.

"Good evening, I'm George Bush". turrists, evil, turrists, 911, evil turrists.
God Bless America".

And the TV talking heads will rave how Churchillian his speech was.

[Greyskye]

14. I predict...

That polls will show a minimum of a 4 point 'reported' bump. In reality, I think that there will be a -2/+2 bump, but the media will exagerate the effect, just as they minimized Kerry's bump post DNC.

I voted for a 4 point bump, since that will be what is reported in the polls.

[DeaconBlues]

15. He'll gain a couple points from the convention and 9/11

but the media will treat it like its a monumental surge

[DrFunkenstein]

16. Effect Of Protests? NYC Anger Over Budget BS?

There will be much more going on around the convention, if the media bothers to cover it. That could have a palpable effect on the numbers coming out.

[silverlib]

17. A bump right back to Crawford (n/t)

[Wheelie_Alex]

18. Six or Seven is my guess.

I have no links to back this up, but this is how I feel and why I think Bush will get such a bounce. I do not think that Kerry has all of his votes locked up yet. I think that a percentage of his poll numbers are really undecideds, sitting on the fence but with their feet dangling on Kerry's side. I do not think they are commited yet.

These are the people that go, "Oh, Kerry has a good point, I'll go with him. Oh look, Bush just scored a point. Maybe I'll side with him now." These people are swayed by which way the wind is blowing and by what message they hear last. They are going to swing their feet over to Bush's side of the fence after the convention, but they are not going to be anymore commited to Bush so we can win them back.

People who are predicting no bounce are probably expecting a Kerry landslide. Face it people, almost half the people in this country are supporting Bush. He must be appealing to them in some way that Kerry is not. A good part of the are ABB also. They WON'T vote for ANYONE BUT BUSH.

There will be a bounce. You can count on it. Just don't panic, because the people swayed by the rhetoric of the convention can be won back.

[TheFarseer]

20. well put

I think we will be deadlocked after the convention. The debates, the situation in Iraq and any unexpected events leading up to November will decide this one.

[DrMath]

21. Undecideds won't go for Bush!

I think the undecideds are trying to decide if they want to vote for Kerry or if they don't want to vote at all. They've had plenty of time to get to know Bush and if they don't like him by now they never will. Kerry is still comparitively unknown so he just has to do a good job convincing the undecided people that he's worth voting for.

[noahmijo]

19. If the protestors play it right * won't be able to use 9-11 issue

Here * will be bumbling over all the great things he did for New Yorkers on 9-11, but then you've got all those New Yorkers out there screaming how much he sucks, it will look contradictory....now as all of you are saying let's see if the media picks that statement up.

[DrMath]

22. did Kerry have a bounce at all?

If Kerry didn't get any bounce, it seems like Bush would get less of one. Bush doesn't have anything else left to say.

[WI_DEM]

23. No if Kerry didn't get a bounce then Bush will

that is the way the media works.

[AndyTiedye]

24. Several Days of Adoring Media Coverage Will Give Him a Bounce

It won't be like the Democratic convention, where the networks put
their attack dogs on to talk over our speakers. This will be a
full-on lovefest.

Our best hope is that they overdo it and make everybody :puke:

May everybody else get as sick of Bush*'s ugly face as we are.

[spooky3]

26. that's my opinion too.

[ItsMyParty]

25. who would watch this convention except the usual suspects??

I mean they will have their die hard base watching, just like we did. However, in the case of Kerry, some more people did tune in for his speech because it was an unknown and a curiosity. Remember how badly Bush's State of Union speech was received, etc.?? No one is curious about George. No one wants to spend a dull hour of "dumb on parade". What they 'get' will be blurbs on the news. I expect things to be about the same as was for the Dems or less. It will be when the media can "telll YOU WHAT YOU HEARD AND WHAT TO THINK" after the debates that the magnificent Mr. Bush may just start surging. If they didn't call him an inarticulate, stupid asshole before, do you think they are going to call him one now??? Of course not. The focus will be picking Kerry apart and make a "Gore" out of him. At the end of a debate when they can sum up, Kerry should look at the camera and say, "so folks now you heard us both speak...do yourself a favor and turn the tv set off NOW...make up your own mind....don't let those corporate lackeys who are coming on next tell you what to think...goodnight, God Bless America and and God damn to hell the media"!!!!

[DrMath]

30. I agree!

Maybe some undecideds will watch and get it deeply rooted in their minds what a dumbass he is...

[DemWitch]

27. 2 points...

There's not room for much more than that, on either side.

[ItsMyParty]

28. who would watch this convention except the usual suspects??

I mean they will have their die hard base watching, just like we did. However, in the case of Kerry, some more people did tune in for his speech because it was an unknown and a curiosity. Remember how badly Bush's State of Union speech was received, etc.?? No one is curious about George. No one wants to spend a dull hour of "dumb on parade". What they 'get' will be blurbs on the news. I expect things to be about the same as was for the Dems or less. It will be when the media can "telll YOU WHAT YOU HEARD AND WHAT TO THINK" after the debates that the magnificent Mr. Bush may just start surging. If they didn't call him an inarticulate, stupid asshole before, do you think they are going to call him one now??? Of course not. The focus will be picking Kerry apart and make a "Gore" out of him. At the end of a debate when they can sum up, Kerry should look at the camera and say, "so folks now you heard us both speak...do yourself a favor and turn the tv set off NOW...make up your own mind....don't let those corporate lackeys who are coming on next tell you what to think...goodnight, God Bless America and and God damn to hell the media!!

[genius]

31. CBS is covering it. They didn't cover the Dem convention - at least not

here.