Obama's latino problem

[muryan]

A new Gallup Poll summary of surveys taken in May shows Obama winning 62% of Latino registered voters nationwide, compared with just 29% for McCain. Others have found a wide gap as well. The pro-Democratic group Democracy Corps compiled surveys from March through May that showed Obama with a 19-point lead among Latinos. And a Times poll published last month showed Obama leading McCain among California Latinos by 14 points.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/politics/la-na-latinos6-2008jun06,0,176151.story

This is interesting because of the shift in demographics since 2004.

In 2004, according to the national exit poll for the general election, Latinos made up 8% of voters. The breakdown was as follows:

White 77%
Black 11%
Latino 8%
Asian 2%
Other 2%


According to the current Political Dashboard available on yahoo.com, the current voter breakdown as of 2008 is as follows:

White 66%
Black 12%
Latino 15%
Asian 4%
Other 3%


And in the 2006, the Hispanic community voted decisively for the Democrats:

In the 2006 midterm election, however, due to the unpopularity of the Iraq War, the heated debate concerning illegal immigration, and Republican-related Congressional scandals, Latinos went as strongly Democratic as they have since the Clinton years. Exit poll showed Latinos voting for Democrats by a lopsided 69-30 margin, with Florida Latinos for the first time split evenly.



http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/7/02440/50576/535/531358



What latino problem? Its largely tossed around as fact that Hillary was winning latinos that Obama couldn't win. It may be true that they preferred her over him, but this clearly shows that they aren't fans of McSame. The real question is...can Obama turnout the latino vote?

[blonndee]

1. ...is divisive media BULLSHIT

I predict that in my state at least, there is going to be a "Latino" turnout like never before. And it AIN'T gonna be for McCain. WTF have the republicans done for them except demonize them? Then McCain is going to try to use them for votes? McCain's so-called "strength" on immigration policy ain't going to do NADA here, I guarantee it. People need freaking food on the table and education for their kids. That's not just a "Latino" problem, either.

[bluestateguy]

2. I think Kerry only got 55% of Latinos

And Gore got 62%. So this is a good start.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. They want to tell you Obama has a latino problem...

Then he actually will have a latino problem.

[Donkey_Punch_Dubya]

4. I think Political Dashboard doesn't jive with the exit poll

That is saying that African Americans only were energized to make up 1% more of the electorate, but Latinos and Asians doubled? Kos' numbers for the 2000 and 2004 exit polls make more sense for a 4 year change, but I don't think the Political Dashboard is using the same metrics or methods to come up with the electorate breakdown.

[PretzelWarrior]

5. that's full of shit. Obama as a minority vs. McCain? No question

many will break for Obama. Especially in light of the horrific and militaristic stance the GOP has taken on immigrants.

[murielm99]

6. Part of the shift is simply a reflection that Hispanics

are the fastest-growing minority in our country. Their numbers are large, and their visibility is growing as well.

Grassroots leaders need to reach out to this community. We need to be sure they are included in our local and state Democratic activities, and that they are acknowledged. They need to be encouraged to take leadership positions. I have noticed in my county that this has not been done well enough in the past. Large numbers of Hispanics have not voted because they were not made to feel that they were a part of things. I hope someone is telling Obama to reach out to this demographic. He needs team leaders and campaign workers who are Hispanic.

[bhikkhu]

7. The real question is whether McCain can turn out the latino vote.

I would like to see the demographic shift to importance, but I don't see it in this election. Not so much because of Obama's strength, but McCain's weakness. Perhaps next time around, and a larger plan for the future.

[vaberella]

8. I mentioned this before on another thread. Based on what I know of New Yorkers and Latinos--they

always vote Demo. The only people who rarely vote demo are the well-to-do (rich/wealthy) Cubans and/or Mexicans (West coast). Most Mexicans, workers, and Puerto-Rican, Dominican, Panamanian (central american, I know), and others all go Demo.

The only reason Clinton did so well was because of her name. Had they known or heard of Barack Obama, he might have won the Latino vote because he's a minority. They tend to rally next to their own. Well around my way they do. Don't get me wrong, there's levels of racism, but overall we're kind of like those weird families. Where you fight amongst yourself but when an idiot tries to step up to one of you, you all rally around one another.


In any event, once Clinton lost...her hispanic demographic all went to Obama. Some of the women might be on the fence, but basically everyone else who would have voted for her are voting for him. The point is they don't care who is running for the Democratic race, as long as it's democrat. IF they are hispanic and don't fall into one fo the two above groups they're Demos and they will ONLY vote Demo and will not touch Repub. At least in New York City---in paticular Harlem (my neighborhood is roughly like 35% Dominican, 20% Puerto Rican, 30% Black, and 15% mixed group).

It's false advertising when they tell you he has a Latino problem. He doesn't have one. The only problem is the blue-collar white males (Webb woudl help him there) and some women (Sebelius, might work or put Richardson and you're fine).

[blonndee]

9. ITA except for Richardson.

God knows I love that man. He has been a fantastic governor and he is popular even among MOST thinking conservatives here. I will always love Bill and believe in him and support him wholeheartedly. He is a GOOD man.

But he would NOT be a good VP choice. He's too "slow on the uptake," for one thing, and is way too vulnerable to smear campaigns. Skeletons that NMicans overlook would likely become pretty "serious" fodder in the GE. He would not be able to fight back effectively, either. Mainly, though, is the perception amongst Clinton supporters that he is a traitor. Thank you, Carville!

But, as I noted above, I mostly agree with you. Obama does NOT have a "Latino problem." The whoremedia is trying to make it happen, but we can work against that.

[FrenchieCat]

10. He may have even won over quite a few Cuban-Americans

down in Florida.

Don't think he hasn't.

Barack Obama is just so much more than a John McCain, till it ain't even funny.
An Older shrivled up whiter than white scowling guy talking nonsense next to Barack Obama and then comparing their policy? I would safely say that anyone voting for McCain is just plain fucking out to lunch!

That a phenomenal once in the lifetime politician reminiscent of JFK, RFK, and MLK all rolled up into one, orating like nobody's business comes along, and somehow, the United States get all hot and bothered about the fact that he has melanin in his skin? What would that tell the world about us? We would look like shit; worse than having gifted Bush to the world.

I mean, really.

Barack Obama will be a stellar President....and he will win if we say so, and we work real hard at it.

[Donkey_Punch_Dubya]

11. Don't underestimate McCain

He is a moderate republican by most standards. He was relected in 2004 by something like 75-25%. I know of 2 people that don't like Bush but like McCain, and think he would be a far different president than our current idiot in chief. It doesn't help to say that anyone who votes for McCain is out to lunch.

[FrenchieCat]

12. I'm gonna underestimate McCain.....it would be the media one has to

not underestimate. Which is why we will be organizing to control their out of control fucked up selves.

I'm not sure what it is about McCain that anyone is supposed to like......so what would make the United States look like dumbasses for the 3rd straight time? I mean, how high will the oil prices have to go or the stock take dives before we realize that if the world respected us more, we'd have an easier time of things. Isn't that part of the point? The majority of this country wants change?

You practically signing praises of McCain doesn't look too good to me. :wtf:

[depakid]

13. "The only reason Clinton did so well was because of her name."

That's a pretty insulting thing to say....

Also, something that people have ignored is the fact that outside the Northeast, the Hispanic vote not only isn't an purely Democratic block, but that there's historical animosity among African Americans and Hispanics. Add to that McCain's "maverick" imigration stances and the matter is far from settled.