Updated Polls:

[Nicholas_J]

National Polls:

Gallup: Bush 48, Kerry 46, Nader 3

Pew: Kerry 47, Bush 45, Nader 2

Rasmussen (8/13): Kerry 48, Bush 46

State Polls:

WA: Kerry 49, Bush 42, Nader 1

CA: Kerry 50, Bush 40, Nader 4

NY: Kerry 53, Bush 35, Nader 4

OH: Kerry 48, Bush 45, Nader 2

FL: Kerry 47, Bush 41, Nader 4

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Most of these polls reflect polling after so called "mistakes" Kerry supposedly made about support for the Iraq War.

They seem to have had no negative effect on Kerry's lead over Bush, and in some cases, Kerry's lead has grown this week.

The latest Pew poll has some intersting breakdowns.

83 percent of Black voters are leaning towards Kerry, 6 percent towards Bush.

75 percent of Non_white Voters lean towards Kerry. 15 Percent Towards Bush (this shows a big loss in Bush's support among Hispanics)

52 percent of white voters lean towards Bush, 42 percent towards Kerry.

By Age Groups Kerry, very unusual breakdown:

Under 30... 53 percent support Kerry, 35 percent support Bush

30-49 44 Percent support Kerry, 50 percent support Bush.

50-64 50 Percent Support Kerry 45 percent support Bush.

64 and older 48 percent support Kerry, 42 percent support Bush.

It seems strange that Bush gets most of his support among the post Vietnam Generation, while Kerry gets his largest support from the young, the Vietnam Generation, and the Greatest Generation.

There is much that the current younger generation and Vietnam generation have in common, in particular, their tendency to be socially active in greater numbers than the generation in between them, who were essentially known largely as the "Me Generation"

Those older that 64 are essentailly the FDR generation, or those who arrived on the scene just immediately after FDR established the many government prorgrams that this generation largely benefited from in one way or another.

Anyway, I would check the Pew Poll. It is very enlightening:

http://people-press.org/reports/tables/221.pdf

[JohnKleeb]

1. good to see that

Thanks.

[annabanana]

2. What's with Gallup?

I guess everyone ELSE is out of step. :D

[Nicholas_J]

5. Yes...

GAllop has been way out of step lately. I am wonderinfg if there has been a recent change of ownership, or if someone like Ruport Murdoch is paying for the polls to be done.

The only other poll that has been finding Bush doing well in a number of states where other polls are reveresed is the "Strategic Vision" pollster. which was set up by Fox as a "fair and balanced" pollster. Occasionall they find in favor of Kerry, but for the most part, they are always finding Bush ahead in polls that Kerry leads ewith everyone else.

[quinnox]

3. Kerry is doing very well lately

I don't care what the naysayers in this forum moan about, Kerry is in a great position right now. Sure it could change, let's see what happens after Bush convention but Kerry's campaign team should be cautiously confident at this point.

[zanana]

6. I agree.There's reason for optimism.

And if Bush can't win after; 9/11, Afghanistan, Republicans controlling both houses, the governors of most states and the media, we won't have another Republican president for a long time.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

4. I applaud your effort to inject some reality into the discussion