Montana's HUGE black population gives Obama the edge

[Undercurrent]

Census numbers:

Black Persons, 2006: 0.4%
White Persons, 2006: 90.8%

The rest are either Latino (2.5%) or Native American (6.4%).

Montana is also the nation's fifth poorest state.

It's poor, it's white, and has no African Americans to speak of. Therefore, if what the Clinton campaign and its apologists say is correct, if what the political news media tell me is accurate, Clinton should have another 30-point blowout in store. Right?

Mason-Dixon for Lee Newspapers. 5/19-21. Likely Democratic primary voters. MoE 5% (12/17-19 results)

Obama 52 (17)
Clinton 35 (29)

Edited to add: My apologies to the board. My total error that in my excitement I neglected to link the source.
http://www.dailykos.com/
::embarrassed::

[NC_Nurse]

1. LOL!

Cool. :D

[jasmine621]

45. how many of the 90% are Dems??

That's the key question. Even if a 100% of the white Dems vote for Obama in the primary, they do not outnumber the number of white Republicans in that state.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

50. How many of the Dems in Appalacia have voted GOP in the past few elections?

A lot.

30% of WV Dems voted for BUSH in 2004. :puke:

Catering to morans like that is just plain STUPID.

[EFerrari]

2. LOL! You Go, my Montana bros.

:rofl:

[Yukari Yakumo]

9. No problem...

I just heard her first radio ad Saturday. Obama has been running ads for weeks.
Anyway, her ad is awful. She only shows up for the obligatory "I'm Hillary Clinton and I approve this message". The rest is a narrator babbling about her pseudo-resume.

[EFerrari]

15. I'm in San Francisco and no one ever runs ads here.

I've seen maybe two this whole season.

I guess they figure we either vote for the Democrat or start swimming. :)

[anigbrowl]

54. ?? I saw loads in the runup to Super Tuesday. That was TV rather than radio of course.

[EFerrari]

76. Hmm. Maybe I just don't watch enough teevee.

:)

[ErinBerin84]

3. yup. we're going to be hearing Pat Buchanan talk about

how Montana voters all own ten speed bikes and sip lattes.


By the way, did anyone see the Mclaughlin group today? Even Pat knows it's over for Hillary. He said "the tide has turned". For the record, Mclaughlin said that Hillary has a 6 out of 10 chance of being the nominee if she wins the popular vote by PR! All the other guests said 2 or 3 out of 10 for that question.

[jenmito]

11. McLaughlin is a BIG-TIME Hillary supporter. Even bigger than Pat.

:D

[eridani]

38. The talking point about bikes is pretty dated

These days you get 18 speeds minimum, and up to 27.

[BlooInBloo]

4. It's plagiarism when you don't link to the source. Now's your chance to do it yourself.

[Swamp Rat]

5. Well, that certainly ruins Hillary's theory about 'working class white people'

:)

[TBF]

7. you forgot the "hard-working" part

[Swamp Rat]

13. Oh yeah, or maybe Hillary doesn't think that people from Montana work hard?

Watch the spinners spin this one. ;)

[Liberal Veteran]

6. Not to mention it's 50% male!!!! How frakking unfair is that?

[d_b]

21. it's just no fair at all

:(

[Renaissance Man]

8. Billings, Montana

I guess Billings is the new Chocolate City, eh?

LOL

[BlooInBloo]

10. Here's a link to the story the OP is quoting....

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/25/131838/888/200/522548

[Undercurrent]

17. Thank you.

Already corrected, my friend. Thank you for pointing out my error. (No sarcasm, I really mean this.) I got excited, and posted without thinking of the link. (Actually it was cut from the "front page" of Kos. ;-) )

[BlooInBloo]

Yup. It won't *stay* on the front page, of course, which is why the direct link is needed...

Direct links are found at the bottom of front page stories, where it says "permalink", btw.

EDIT: It's all good. :)

[KSinTX]

28. You played that with great class

and civility :hi: I was just over there and had seen it as well. Nicely done.

[BlooInBloo]

32. :)

[Undercurrent]

35. Thanks for this info too.

[BlooInBloo]

36. np. :)

[NJSecularist]

12. Another irrelevant solid red state that Obama is going to win

Congratulations to him. :sarcasm: :sarcasm:

[NightWatcher]

14. kinda Like West Virginia or Kentucky?

[Swamp Rat]

18. The spin has begun.

:crazy:

[NJSecularist]

20. West Virginia is a Democratic state.

Kentucky can go Democratic too, with the right candidate.

[GarbagemanLB]

22. Bullshit. KY is one of the most conservative states in the union.

[NJSecularist]

23. False. It's one of the most populist conservative states.

It can go Democratic with the right candidate. Look at 1992 and 1996.

[NightWatcher]

26. in 2004 Bush won WV 56-43. in 2000 Bush won 52-46. That makes it RED

[NJSecularist]

33. West Virginia is a conservative Democratic state.

Bush was a good candidate for West Virginia. With the right type of candidate, it will go Democratic. Go look at its history. Dukakis won it in 1988. Carter won it in 1980. Both in Democratic blowouts. Bill Clinton won it in 1992 and 1996.

[Hippo_Tron]

43. It's not 1980, 1988, 1992, or 1996, it's 2008

The Republican landslide of 1994 showed just how well organized they had become in states like West Virginia. Back when Jimmy Carter and Michael Dukakis were running, the Republicans simply didn't have that organization. Yes Clinton won West Virginia in 1996 but he was an incumbent President and he beat Dole pretty handedly everywhere. Al Gore and John Kerry performed much better nationally than Jimmy Carter did in 1980 or Michael Dukakis did in 1988 and yet they lost West Virginia. That isn't because of Al Gore or John Kerry that's because West Virginia has changed.

[Heather MC]

48. "With the right type of candidate," oh do you mean "With the WHITE type of Candidate?

[VotesForWomen]

62. here we go again. anybody who doesn't vote for O is a racist. that's gonna work great in the GE.

[quaker bill]

70. No actually the poster

means with the "right" sort of candidate, specifically a "right" leaning republican-lite candidate.

The real problem with the notion that Hillary could win either of these states in November, is not that she would not pander far enough to the right. It is that racism and sexism are branches from the same ideological root. In a choice between a black candidate and a white candidate, the white candidate will take this vote, as the exit polls sharply indicate.

However, with Hillary at the head of the ticket (heaven forbid), the race then becomes a choice between a man and a woman candidate, because both have the desired complexion, race drops as an issue for these voters. Now if Hillary were a black woman, it would be the double whammy. In short, the racist voters in May will the be sexist voters in November, given the chance.

[CTLawGuy]

71. *snicker*

good one

[JAbuchan08]

72. but the last thing we need is conservative Dems deciding the election

sorry to say it, but they are as bad or worse than conservative republicans.

[Stevepol]

34. How do you know Bush won it? The voting machine results?

[FogerRox]

39. they said he won, it was on the "TV"

LOL.

[Hippo_Tron]

42. Montana has a Democratic Governor and sends us two Democratic Senators

And yes I'm aware that West Virginia does as well. It will be very hard to keep it that way once Robert Byrd passes away or retires, though. West Virginia is trending red while Montana is trending blue.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

52. You mean, the "white" candidate.

You can keep the bigot vote. Seriously.

:puke:

[Renaissance Man]

16. Why can't he close the deal?

Well, if that's the case, aren't West Virginia and Kentucky solidly red states? Shouldn't he be able to "not close the deal" in Montana as well, seeing as though it is saturated with "working, hard working, white Americans" as well?

LOL

[Iceburg]

51. Uh ....Bill Clinton won both West Virginia and Kentucky

But if Obama wins the nomination, West Virginia and Kentucky will certainly be red again, as will be Florida, Michigan, Ohio and possibly Pennsylvania.

[cottonseed]

19. It's relevant to the contest at hand -- the primary.

He's polling better than Hillary swing states now anyways, so I think her argument is pretty empty at this place. Hell, CA had to open a new landfill just for the Hillary yard signs. It's an Obama state now.

[apocalypsehow]

24. It's going to be Candidate Obama, then President Obama. Get over it. n/t.

[swishyfeet]

25. Bill won in 1992.

Spin please...

[Hippo_Tron]

47. Clinton got 38% there in '92 and Ross Perot got 26%

In all likelihood Bush would've carried that state without Perot in the race.

What NJSecularist ignores is trends. He cites the fact that Carter and Dukakis won West Virginia even in blowouts yet ignores the fact that Gore and Kerry did much better than Carter and Dukakis yet they still lost West Virginia. West Virginia is trending red because the GOP has become much better organized than they were in the 80's. They are much better able to win states like West Virginia by talking about guns and gays. Not to mention the fact that they scare the crap out of coal miners that Democrats will put them out of work with "fringe environmental policies".

Meanwhile people in places like Montana and Colorado are sick of Republican environmental policies (even though they also mine coal in Montana), they're sick of the war, they're sick of the shredding of the constitution and loss of civil liberties, and to a certain extent they're sick of the war on pot. Obama could easily win Montana if he could simply convince people there that he's not going to take away their guns. Schweitzer and Tester are just as liberal as Obama except for the gun issue.

[grantcart]

27. You are the most consistently inaccurate person at DU

1) Any state that has two Democratic Senators and a Democratic Governor is not considered a red state

Governor Brian Schweitzer (D)
U.S. Senators Max Baucus (D)
Jon Tester (D)


2)It is true that with Senator Clinton we have no chance. With Senator Obama instead of a 18 point deficit we only have 5 points. If he picks somebody like Webb this state will be tied.


McCain 54% McCain 48%

Clinton 36% Obama 43%

[Yukari Yakumo]

29. And if he picks Schweitzer? {nt}

uguu

[Douglas Carpenter]

40. Rasmussen Markets data gives Sen. Obama a 62% chance of winning in November

----------------------------------------------------

Rasmussen Markets data gives Sen. Obama a 62.0% chance of winning the White House in November:


"New polling from Minnesota was released today showing Obama retaining a double digit lead over McCain. Polling released Friday showed Obama with the advantage in both Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. In both states, McCain had the edge a month ago (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.0% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up.

link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_pr

[KSinTX]

30. Good catch on finding the info and on the link.

:hi: and welcome aboard!

[anonymous171]

31. They're all lazy white people, obviously.

[meow mix]

37. i just moved back here.. and glad.

couldnt take los angeles anymore.

[donheld]

41. L. A. Proved too much for the man?

:D

[meow mix]

75. too crowded at the starbucks.. need my latte's faster.

actually i dont know how i could buy a latte,
way to expensive for me im more worried about getting food lol.

[Douglas Carpenter]

44. I think its Montana's dominance by latte drinking liberal elites

[Stephanie]

46. It appears that states without a history of racial strife have no problem voting for Obama

No matter their racial makeup.

[hokies4ever]

49. They don't have color TVs in Montana

Just wait till they meet him. They're in for a big surprise. :rofl:

[helderheid]

74. !!!!!!

:spray: :rofl:

DUZY!

[smalll]

53. Cluetrain for the Obamatrons! A lot of latte liberals from California HAVE just moved into Montana!

Even out here in New York we've read about it. And it is specifically Montana: a lot of rich LA types, San Franciscans, etc. have been buying up a few dozen acres each, and building luxury psuedo-ranches for themselves.

Montana as a whole is still very much Republican, but when it comes to Democratic primaries, it is this new influx of coastal money that can dominate.

(It was some Hollywood star who started the luxury-"ranch"-in-Montana trend about 10 years ago or so.)

[PM7nj]

57. Please tell me your joking.

Please, you can't be serious. Hannah Montana isn't going to swing the primary.

[Douglas Carpenter]

59. yep, that must be whats throwing the primary by such a wide margin among all age and demographic

groups. Now I get it :crazy:

"In a closer look at the Democratic poll primary results, Obama leads Clinton among every subgroup except in Eastern Montana.

Obama is ahead of Clinton among men by 58 percent to 33 percent and among women by 48 percent to 36 percent, the poll showed.

Voters younger than 50 favor Obama by 56 percent to 30 percent, while those 50 and older back Obama 49 percent to 39 percent, it showed. The rest are undecided.

In the 18 counties in Western Montana, Obama holds a commanding 62 percent to 25 percent lead over Clinton, the poll showed. These counties include Gallatin, Flathead, Lewis and Clark, Missoula, Ravalli and Silver Bow.

Clinton leads Obama 47 percent to 40 percent in the 38 counties designated as Eastern Montana in the poll. These counties include Cascade and Yellowstone.

"Obviously, Obama is the favorite," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. "We're seeing the same patterns we're seeing elsewhere. His strength is with male voters and voters under 50. Clinton does better but still trails with voters over 50 and with women.""

link:

http://www.billingsgazette.net/articles/2008/05/25/news/state/26-statepoll_s.txt

/

[EmeraldCityGrl]

55. Intrade Predicts...Obama to win MT. by 90% and also to win SD by 93%

They've been pretty accurate so far.

[PM7nj]

56. What? That is CHANCE of winning

and not actual margin? That seems pretty ridiculous. Although he did get close to it in Idaho.

[Douglas Carpenter]

58. Intrade like Rasmussen Markets ascribe a percentage of the possibility of them winning - not the mar

margin. In other words they are saying there is a 90% chance of Sen. Obama winning the Montana primary. Like Rasmussen Markets ascribes a 92.2% possibility of Sen. Obama winning the Democratic nomination and a 62.2% chance of the Democratic nominee winning the White House this November.

[PM7nj]

61. Alright. That is what I thought.

Thanks :)

[VotesForWomen]

60. i live in SD; here's what it is 16 years of anti-clinton propaganda and groupthink. although i might

add, i think that when SD votes june 3, O's numbers are going to be down quite a bit from the early midwest red state caucuses and primaries. people are getting wise and deciding not to jump on the obamawagon. his numbers will only go down from now until november.

[PM7nj]

63. That's what happened in Oregon!

You know, where ARG had him at 5 and SUSA had him at 13.

People are getting wise!

:sarcasm:

[davidpdx]

64. Yep those numbers just keep tanking,

so much that he's won more delegates. And meanwhile Hillary's debt keeps building up.

[BeyondGeography]

65. I'm sure the black vote will help him lock up South Dakota, too

[rucky]

66. But they're not hard-working.

Ever seen Brokeback Mountain?

all they ever did was sit around and eat beans (and you-know-what).

[jakem]

67. yeah, that one black guy is big, but calling him huge is a little mean...

he has a glandular problem :shrug:

[Bright Eyes]

68. Obviously, those aren't "Hard-working white voters".

Or they'd support Clinton.

[dempartisan23]

69. the people in the west seem very open minded.

it baffles me how people can be so different in WVA and montana.

[helderheid]

73. There's a latte stand on EVERY corner.

:P