Shocking new SUSA: Obama 49% McCain 42% IN VIRGINIA!!!

[mod mom]

from Kos Diarist:

Shocking new SUSA: Obama 49% McCain 42% IN VIRGINIA!!!
by Steven R

Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:57:35 AM PDT

Notice all the Press this morning that the new Q-Poll "Swing" State got? It's got the full splash at Mark "Tool" Halperin's website...

Memo to Mark, MSM and Q-Poll: Obama is the Nominee; OBAMA HAS A DIFFERENT MAP

Hence the shocking part... Obama's Map is becoming reality; Virginia has been under polled and this would "shock" the Halperin's of the world hung up on Clinton's 2004 map

Case In POINT: VIRGINIA - 13 EV's

Obama: 49% (35%)
McCain: 42% (55%)

Obama/Edwards: 53%
McCain/Huckabee: 41%

The Map has Changed, Electability has been redefined, and there is no Gender Gap in Virginia.

Steven R's diary :: ::
Men
Obama: 48%
McCain: 44%

Women
Obama: 51%
McCain: 40%

Independents:
Obama: 45%
McCain: 41%

Democrats:
Obama: 79%
McCain: 10%

Republicans:
Obama : 17%
McCain : 81%

Obama is Pulling more Republicans than McCain is pulling Democrats.


-snip
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/22/114749/521/263/520443

[Occam Bandage]

1. SUSA is all over the place in their head-to-heads. Still, great news.

[MadBadger]

2. Who needs OH when we have Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico?

and Iowa!

[TheWraith]

32. True... But we're gonna have Ohio too. nt

[TZ]

3. That doesn't sound right

I live near N.Va and the polls I am hearing are more like McCain 48% Obama 37%. Frankly I doubt Obama will win Virginia, maybe make it competitive but no Dem has won Va in ages and I don't see that changing.

[mckeown1128]

9. There have been other polls showing Obama ahead...

I think the average of the polls has McCain ahead slightly...


All it takes is a Webb VP choice to nudge Virginia into Obama's column.

[DemVet]

18. That would be about the ONLY way.

[DemVet]

17. Agreed.

N VA is the Washington establishment, Western VA is conservative mountain folk, and Hampton Roads is militarily-dominated. Obama will play hell trying to win VA.

[Doityourself]

50. If it were up to you...Obama would lose every damn state, lmao..sour grapes favorite flavor huh?

[Leopolds Ghost]

52. I am worried about part of Hampton Roads (the shipbuilding communities are mostly AA) and Appalachia

Northern VA and some other parts should be easy wins for Obama considering they went for Kerry.

[BonnieJW]

23. I live in N.VA as well,

and I think the state is lavender right now. Dem governor, 1 Dem senator and surely Mark Warner will win the other seat in November. I'm thinking Virginia will go blue.

[DemVet]

37. Most of those you've stated aren't exactly liberals.

[my3boyz]

4. VA is going to turn BLUE for Obama!! nt

[Oleladylib]

5. Yup and Florida, Ohio and Pa. go to McCain...if O is the candidate...

way to lose.

[mod mom]

22. Poblano model. New voter registrations + youth vote + young latinos + Af Am

plus in Ohio we have a Democratic SOS so expect votes to be counted this time.

Hillary won OH by 8.8 % BUT that included Republican cross-overs:



▪ What might have actually happened in Ohio and Texas? Tin foil hat?
▪ Clip:
: "Rush, I understand that the Rush Limbaugh audience is mobilizing in Texas for Hillary. Am I hearing that right?"

: "I don't know if the audience is mobilizing or not. I am urging people — I am using a phrase — the Republicans — our nominee is chosen. It's John McCain.

Texas is open. And I want Hillary to stay in this, Laura. This is too good a soap opera. We need Barack Obama bloodied up politically, and it's obvious that the Republicans are not going to do it and don't have the stomach for it.

As you probably know, we're getting all kinds of memos from the RNC saying not to be critical there. Mark MacKinnon of McCain's campaign says he'll quit if they get critical over Obama.

This is the presidency of the United States you're talking about. I want our party to win. I want the Democrats to lose. They're in the midst of tearing themselves apart right now. It is fascinating to watch, and it's all going to stop if Hillary loses.

So yes, I'm asking to cross over and, if they can stomach it — I know it's a difficult thing to do to vote for a Clinton — but it will sustain this soap opera, and it's something I think we need. It would be fun, too."

http://www.thomhartmann.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=609&Itemid=113

6,000 Republicans in Cuyahoga crossed over and voted Democratic in primary

Source: Plain Dealer

16,000 Republicans in Cuyahoga crossed over and voted Democratic in primary
Sunday, March 09, 2008
Amanda Garrett
Plain Dealer Reporter

A staggering 16,000-plus Republicans in Cuyahoga County switched parties when they voted in last week's primary.

That includes 931 in Rocky River, 1,027 in Westlake and 1,142 in Strongsville. More than a third of the Republicans in Solon and Bay Village switched. Pepper Pike had the most dramatic change: just under half its Republicans became Democrats. And some of those who changed - it's difficult to say how many - could be in trouble with the law.

At least one member of the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections wants to investigate some Republicans who may have crossed party lines only to influence which Democrat would face presumed Republican nominee John McCain in November.


Those who crossed lines were supposed to sign a pledge card vowing allegiance to their new party...

-snip
http://www.cleveland.com/news/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/news/120505162549970.xml&coll=2


Ohio GOP roots for Hillary
BY HOWARD WILKINSON | [email protected]
E-mail | Print | digg us! | del.icio.us!
One of the worst-kept secrets of the Ohio presidential primary is that Republican party leaders have a candidate they are rooting for on the Democratic side.

Her name is Hillary Clinton, and they believe that if she wins the Ohio primary and goes on to become the Democratic nominee, she will be the one who unites their dispirited and divided party and give them their best chance of keeping the White House this fall.

It is a belief that the Clinton campaign says is wrong-headed and they will campaign across the state for the next three weeks making the argument that their battle-tested, experienced candidate is the only one who can go toe-to-toe with John McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee this fall.

-snip

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080213/NEWS01/302130097



A movement is afoot ...

Some Republicans refer to it as "the plot."

It started a few weeks ago when conservative radio powerhouse Rush Limbaugh suggested that his Republican following cross over during the primary to vote for Clinton. Clinton, Limbaugh argued, would be easier for McCain to beat in November.

Soon, local morning radio show host Bob Frantz echoed Limbaugh on WTAM AM/1100, and the buzz began to grow.

-snip

http://blog.cleveland.com/openers/2008/03/crossover_voting_was_heavy_and.html

[Blondbostonian]

24. Oh please

Obama leads in PA and it's int he margin of error in Ohio.

Hillary lost. Deal with it.

[gmudem]

25. Maybe Florida

But Obama will win Ohio and PA. Polls show him about tied with McCain in Ohio and consistently show him leading in PA. As long as he wins Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, and Virginia he doesn't need to win Florida.

And no Democrat should depend on Florida to win the election because of all the shenanigans that are sure to go on down there. At least this time around in Ohio we have a Democratic governor and no Ken Blackwell.

[featherman]

26. PA and OH are not going to vote GOP this year - silly to think so

Both are now DEM states top to bottom

I'll concede FL as likely GOP but we should fight hard for it nonetheless.

[woolldog]

6. What's interesting are the VP breakdowns

Adding Sebelius kills Obama's chances in every state. Adding Edwards improves his winning chances in every state, sometimes significantly

Sebelius shouldn't be on the ticket. Too much evidence that she hurts the ticket.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. It's because no one knows who Sebelius is.

They all know who Edwards is, however.

[Clark2008]

11. So do I and I wouldn't vote for that ticket.

because I "DO" know the REAL Edwards (populist, my butt).

[woolldog]

13. That's the point!!!!!!!!

Obama is going to have a tough enough job introducing himself to an electorate that feels like it doesn't fully know him. On top of that people want to add a VP like Sebelius who nobody knows. So now we'll have to spend months introducing the VP and P candidtae to the American people. He already has an uphill battle. Why make it tougher? I don't understand the logic or mentality behind that. It's a losing strategy.

I don't care for Edwards, but the numbers show the importance of a VP with name recognition.

This is Mondale-Ferraro v. 2.0

[Drunken Irishman]

16. Edwards won't be the VP candidate and most every other option is an unknown.

Unless it's Webb and he'll be an unknown in other states.

The only candidates people will know would be Edwards, Clinton and Gore. All 3 of those aren't going to happen.

Maybe Richardson, but I don't even know how well known he is.

[woolldog]

21. I agree Edwards won't be the VP

But what this points to is how important it is that Obama picks a "known" guy, someone who has been on the national stage for a while and is trusted. Maybe that's not Webb, I don't know. But that should be one of the overriding factors.

I also think he should announce his VP early.

[Drunken Irishman]

30. It's tough, though, when you narrow it down to just that.

How many Democrats are really known around the country?

Richardson - Even he isn't that well known outside of the west and probably an unknown in places like Virginia.

Clinton - Not going to happen.

Edwards - We've talked about this.

Gore - No way will he accept the VP spot again.

Clark - Possible and I actually think he would balance the ticket out a bit.

Biden - Probably not interested.

Who else?

The list will be pretty short when looking at really known candidates.

[woolldog]

38. Richardson & Biden are reasonably well known.

They've been on the national stage for a while now. Webb is doing his publicity tour. Pelosi, Feinstein, and Boxer are well known too.

I don't think Clark is well known, but that may just be me.

[Drunken Irishman]

41. I'm praying for an Obama-Webb ticket.

[woolldog]

42. He's my first choice.

How well known do you think he is nationally?

[Drunken Irishman]

46. Not very, but I think that's a risk we could take.

Because he brings something to the ticket no other candidate could and that's the fact he's got a military background and was once a Republican. He'll do well in the south and balance the ticket out quite nicely.

[Boz]

15. Which is why Richardson is the answer

He is also the known brand, AND brings in the plains states for the 50 state plan, theres a reason Obama was adopted Crow nation the other day.

[Bucky]

34. With all due respect to the Crow nation...

Their endorsement isn't going to swing any states. Richardson is a poor choice for the same reason Sebelius is--weak stage presense. He's certainly among the most qualified people in the country, but he's also dull as an armadillo. A presidential candidate can get away with that; a VP can't.

[Bucky]

33. It's largely name ID, true. But that still leaves her an unknown. Edwards is a known help.

I don't think he'd take it. Repeating the VP run is not a strong career move. Too bad.

[musicblind]

40. After Clinton

Edwards would def be my second choice for VP. As a politician the man has a total package and I would really like him to be president one day. I am sad to see Sebelius would hurt him so much because after Edwards I think she would be a good choice.

I actually worry about putting people on the ticket with the only qualification being a strong military background. I don't know why, I just have this feeling that doing so might not bode well in the long run. I can't shake it.

[Honeycombe8]

8. The polls will be all over the place from now til the GE, but in the meantime..YAAAAAY! nt

[wmbrew0206]

10. From Electorial-Vote.com's front page today:

Virginia:

May 18

Barack Obama 36%

John McCain 44%

Source: Virg. Commonwealth U.

[polichick]

12. It's about time there's a new map...

Hopefully more progressive states will step into the limelight.

[berni_mccoy]

14. Sure Shoots Rove's Electoral Map All to Hell!

[Thrill]

19. Whats shocking? Obama has said the map will be different. A New coalition for change. VA is part of

that

[ShortnFiery]

20. Oh yeah, that's MY STATE. We're gonna turn VA from red to blue in the GE. :-) eom

[gmudem]

27. It's my 2nd state

I live in NY but go to college in VA. Obama can definitely win it this year.

[catgirl]

28. K & R

[not_too_L8]

29. Gobama!!!

[jefferson_dem]

31. Obama wins Independents and grabs 17% of VA Repukes. Edwards as a Veep kicks ass!

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9901f8fc-034e-4a1d-ab36-f6e5c918614e

[DerekJ]

35. :)

[carolinayellowdog]

36. No shock: Obama's support here is wide and deep

Image is from Dailykos.com, counties with 65%+ Obama votes in the 2008 primaries.

Obama will carry in the general most of the cities and counties he carried in the primary, I suspect. Webb as VP nominee would help him across the state but especially in Hampton Roads because of the Navy connection.

[Douglas Carpenter]

39. Recommended! Now this is the kind of story that need recommends to the front page!!

[musicblind]

43. Hot Damn! What Wonderful News!

I really hope that this is accurate. I find it hard to believe because I am so used to seeing my dreams and hopes in politics slashed away when I have been expecting something else... are there other polls showing these numbers?

What about North Carolina and South Carolina? Think of the large AA populations in these states. Do you think he could get them? Maybe with Edwards as VP?

I'm hoping personally for a Clinton VP, but Edwards would be a good one too.

Wow, I really hope these numbers stay true. My republican parents would be beyond belief.

[opihimoimoi]

44. McChange is DOOMED...If the Coal Miners reject him, joining with other unions, he is TOAST

:toast:

[JI7]

45. not shocking at all, he can't win West Virginia, but he could win Virginia

he can't win KEntucky, but he could win Colorado.

[papapi]

47. I already said...

...Obama IS going to take VA in November. I've been voting in this state since I was 18 years young. Now I'm 54 years old and I KNOW Obama will take this state in the GE. I have no doubt. Virginia has become much more cosmopolitan since BIG, BAD Bush and Diebold stole the election in 2000.

[Awsi Dooger]

48. You throw away polls with stupid internals

Obama 48-44 among men in Virginia? Yeah, and my Dolphins will be wrapping up another unbeaten season in 8 months.

George Allen trounced Jim Webb 55-45 among men. Bush beat Kerry 59-40.

The black vote is significantly above average at roughly 20-22%, but no way that equates to Obama carrying the male vote.

He'd need Webb on the ticket, and a massive national margin in at least the +6 range for this SUSA poll to feign accuracy.

[mmonk]

49. I'm not much on general election polls at this stage,

but I do believe we may be able to flip Va.

[sofa king]

51. That's it. I'm going to work for the Obama campaign this summer.

I'm flat effing broke and I don't have a driver's license. But I do have a 50cc scooter and I edit a small magazine, which would suggest I have some sort of useful skill. I used to be a legal and historical researcher and pinch-hitter lobbyist in DC, which is not a useful skill.

If any of you are Rockbridge County readers and can steer me in the right direction, I'll appreciate it. If not, I'll put my superhuman research skills to work and look it up on Google. But I'm gonna do it.