Exit poll: take with a grain of salt, please

[WI_DEM]

I have a friend who has a friend (if that isn't enough to warn you, I don't know what)who has a friend who works at CNN and this friend tells me in Kentucky that Obama may do better than expected. The friend gave no numbers but said that turnout in some areas where Hillary is strong has not been as high as expected, while turnout in Louisville has been strong and that Obama is doing well there. Also said that Lexington is closer than expected.

But I caution you this is all second hand to me. We know that exit polls can't always be depended on.

Sorry, no info on Oregon.

p.s.
Hill is ahead in KY, just not as big as expected.

[NightWatcher]

1. Aw Jeez, time for exit polls again? didnt we just do this last week?

I swear these first 80 primaries have drawn out for ever. I cant wait till we finish this schtuff

[NeedleCast]

10. Only 80 so far?

Feels like more...

[Teaser]

2. exit poll in Oregon would be pointless

Since the voting was largely done days (Weeks?) ago.

[LSparkle]

3. And confining exit polling to those who dropped off their ballots today

wouldn't be a representative sample of the entire electorate.

My predictions: She wins KY by 19; he wins OR by 9.

[gcomeau]

6. 19? That would be nice, but I don't think so.

If the Obama people in Kentucky really turn out for him I'd say he gets to within 25 there. 19 would be astounding considering the consistency of the polling that puts Clinton up 30 or so.

And I'm thinking he beats the spread in Oregon. He might have a shot at a 20+ margin there.

[davsand]

4. My cousin knows a guy with a buddy in Indiana...

I'm not making fun of you for putting this up, WI_DEM. I just thought you were really cute with ALL those disclaimers.

----

Anyhooo, we have a running joke in our household that every urban legend and EVERY tall tale starts out with, "My cousin..." and it ALWAYS involves some vague persona in Indiana.

Do you, per chance, know anybody in Indiana, and if so WHERE were they at LAST weeK?

:evilgrin:


Laura

[dchill]

5. "every urban legend" - really?

I thought it was "There's this guy whose uncle used to work for..."

:hi:

[ej510]

7. Obama always overperform in exit polls. So that means that Obama has lost by

30+ in Kentucky.

[dchill]

8. To what do you attribute this phenomenon?

The old "just can't vote for a black person when it gets down to actually voting" theory? Because I think that the old "just can't vote for a woman when it gets down to actually voting" theory is just as prevalent, all things considered. And I also think that the people who suffer from one of these aberrations also suffer from the other.

:shrug:

[Exilednight]

12. If you look back at polls, Obama usually does better than the poll says. There ......

are a few exceptions, like WV, but for the most part he over performs.

[ej510]

14. Kentucky is similar, but not quite as bad.

[davsand]

11. Do you suppose these are local variations?

Maybe WI_DEM was using their local version!


:)


Laura

[rucky]

9. table salt or kosher salt?

[Adelante]

13. Thanks, WI_DEM

I've read that turnout has been light in KY.