You may laugh, and that's OK, but I think the GE might very well be

[rateyes]

a landslide election for Obama.

The last time there was a president in the White House this unpopular with the electorate was when Jimmy Carter was in office. I hate to say that, but it's the truth.

Reagan landslide.

Now, back to the premise:

Example: The Georgia Primary. Everyone is saying Georgia is safe for the Republicans. But, consider this. In the Georgia Primary, the Republicans who voted totaled approximately 650,000. Obama, by himself, got over 700,000 votes---50,000 more than all the Republicans put together. And, the Democrats pulled in approximately 1,250,000 total voters.

Georgia doesn't seem that safe to me. Neither do many other "safe" states.

50 state strategy with McCain being portrayed as Bush III, and the Republican party swirling down the toilet, equals, quite possibly a LANDSLIDE for the Democratic nominee, Barack Obama.

[shenmue]

1. More hot air...

Why am I not surprised?

:eyes:

It'll be close. You've been overestimating yourself the whole time.

[rateyes]

4. Overestimating myself?

Only I know the real me. I "misunderestimate" myself all the time. :rofl:

[me b zola]

28. Wow. Who's team are you on?

It is sucking big-time to be on a progressive message board with people whom seem to be hoping that the Dem nominee does poorly in the GE. :puke:

[Forkboy]

52. Pretty fucked.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. I'll use the logic of 2006

if the election are FAIRLY clean, it will be a landslide and they KNOW IT

[AllentownJake]

3. Obam is starting with a lead

He started against Hillary with no voters.

A landslide is very very possible.

Also what looks good is McCain has to rely on GOP money right now. The more of that money he spends the less they have for congressional races.

[Vincardog]

5. We can sweep not just the WH but the Congress too. If we can just get the Democratic "Leadership"

to run on and enact real progressive populist policies, we can ship the nightmare that the rePIGlicken party has become into the trash heap of history.

[rateyes]

13. I agree with that. nt

[TheDoorbellRang]

6. I think democrats generally tend to show up for primaries more than republicans

I think democrats tend to care more about who they're putting in office so they show up in greater numbers in the primaries. OTOH republicans are content to let "someone else" decide their candidate for them so they skip the primaries but then show up like good little 'bots in the fall.

Just my pessimistic POV.

[rateyes]

9. I'll tell you this...

in Georgia there were a lot of Republicans pumped up for the primaries. The demographics in this state are favorable to Democrats in a lot of places.

[TheDoorbellRang]

51. I would like to think you're right

It'd be great to see more states turn blue.

[panader0]

7. I've got my fingers crossed, but I think yoy're right.

Obama is an idea, a person, a movement whose time has come.

[Shine]

8. Landslide for Obama!!

:toast: I'll drink to that!

I've been predicting that all along, myself. I'm glad I'm not the only one who think this will happen.

That said, it will be vital to continue with the GOTV actions Team Obama have been doing and monitor the actual election when it happens.

The GOP won't go down without a fight.

[BeatleBoot]

10. Think again.

1972.

All over again.

[rateyes]

12. I don't think so.

No way Obama compares to McGovern in this election.

[bhikkhu]

61. WH, Senate and House are up for our advantage.

Turnouts and registration numbers on our side are huge...on the other side, pathetic. Smile for once, things are looking good.

[Johnny__Motown]

11. I agree.. so many polls split about 80-20 some of that has to carry over into the GE

Bush's approval about 27%


Right track 18% Wrong track 82%


Are we in a recession .. yes.. 80%




If the Republican label was a brand of dog food they would take it off the shelf



We need only label the Republican nominee as a Republician.....

[galledgoblin]

14. it could happen

all those people who have not voted in decades turning out? November 4th is going to be one hellava night!

[rateyes]

15. I will be partying all night long...

looking forward to January 20 when Bush leaves and Obama is sworn in as #44.

[ecdab]

16. A landslide is quite possible.

If we see a sizable down tick in GOP turn out + a large up tick in AA turn out + a large up tick in young voter turn out + Obama holding a similar % of other Democratic voters as Kerry held we will states like OH, VA, IA, MO, CO, NV and NM flip to the Democrats and we will see NC, SC, GA, FL, LA, AR, and maybe even some more be with in reach.

If Bob Barr gains any real traction we could see a much more massive landslide than even that.

But - it way to early to be seriously talking about landslides and there is way too much work still to be done in order to make a victory, much less a landslide victory possible.

[reflection]

17. Actually I feel it in the air myself.

The X-factor is McCain. Yes, he's old. Every day we hear about how decrepit he is, etc. However, once the nomination is settled, Obama's camp ought to act like beating John McCain will be a Herculean task, and that Obama will need every ounce of strength to best him. Let's face it, the dude is over 70 and has angled for this job his whole life. He's probably going to campaign (for him) like a coked-up maniac. Best to set the bar high and hope he manages to manuever under it.

[msallied]

33. I'm thinking the first debate between McCain and Obama

will look a lot like the first televised debate between Kennedy and Nixon. Kennedy's fresh good looks, charm, and charisma were magnetic. Nixon looked like a dying dog's asshole standing next to him. lol

[reflection]

47. Yeah, I could see that.

A stark old vs. new debate would definitely be in our favor. I'm still going through all the permutations of vice presidents in my head and how *those* debates would shake out. Some of those are better than the main act.

[Thrill]

18. If Democrats stick together for a change it will be a landslide

no matter who the nominee is

[anigbrowl]

19. I'll join you in hoping for this. We can do it if we work hard.

There'll never be a better time...the conservative base of the GOP has already given up and is saying that the best thing for them would be to lose the election. They think that this will allow them to regain control of the party and somehow sweep their way to a Reagan victory. Keep believing that, guys. Please!

[Honeycombe8]

20. When was the GA primary? I mean, was it after McCain had already won, basically?

If so, that would explain the low Repub voter turnout.

But I agree...some red states may be able to be turned purple (or at least make the Repubs spend some of their war chest there, and they normally don't spend $$$ there, it's such a lockup). And Obama may be able to turn some purple states blue that haven't been blue in years.

It's the new Dem. map, due partly to Howard Dean's 50-state strategy, I think.

[rateyes]

22. No, it wasn't. Super Tuesday. nt

[AndyTiedye]

21. You Forgot Something About Georgia

EVERY SINGLE VOTE IN GEORGIA IS COUNTED BY



Republican Electing Machines

[rateyes]

23. You do have a point there. nt

[Honeycombe8]

48. Ooooooo. Bad news. nt

[SoonerPride]

24. I agree. Why? I think McCain will have an episode of rage and lose control.

And the country will be shocked at how belligerent and stark raving loony he is.

Obama wins 40 states.

Boom goes the dynamite.

[roseBudd]

25. Charisma is a good thing to have when it's your guy...

It's like Seinfeld episode #137 The Bizarro Jerry

[Johnny__Motown]

26. Has Everyone Seen This Video? (From another thread)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEtZlR3zp4c






How the hell can we lose to this guy?

[rateyes]

31. Yes, I did.

And, you're right.

[msallied]

27. I agree wholeheartedly. The tides have shifted in this country, big time.

The Republican name has been soured beyond repair for the foreseeable future. And I think the Republicans are going to have a spoiler problem as well, because McCain has really not begun to wow the conservative base that was alienated by Bush's "big government" spending.

[msallied]

29. Remember when Bill won in '92?

I think it'll be something like that, but a lot bigger because I don't see there being a Perot equivalent taking 19% of the popular vote.

[rucky]

30. I'll laugh, alright!

it will be so sweet.

[DearAbby]

32. Add to the mix....Bob Barr...and the southern states

may also come into play for the Democrats. It's the gift that keeps on giving.

[msallied]

37. Yes. the Republicans are going to have their own Nader problem this year.

Thanks to Bush alienating the true fiscal conservatives of his own party. There are a great number of people on the right who believe that Bush does not resemble a true Republican, and McCain promises to be a carbon copy of that. It's amazing that he was even nominated. Says a lot about the stupidity of their primary voters and the power of name recognition.

[Perry Logan]

34. I believe there's a post up today showing McCain beating him, while Hillary beats McCain.

We keep seeing this. But the Obamites remain eerily silent about it. It doesn't seem to fit the theory.

[msallied]

38. Eerilly silent about it? Give me a break.

That bullshit has been floating around here for days and has been debunked for the bullshit it is.

[Perry Logan]

41. You're right. Obamites are never silent about anything.

Silence or not, it's funny the polls keep showing that, isn't it?

[msallied]

43. It's disingenuous is what it is.

Hillary is basically a non-factor now. Including her in GE polls does nothing but skew the results.

[Perry Logan]

45. Can you say "buyer's remorse"?

[msallied]

46. You can say it.

After all, you're backing the loser.

[Perry Logan]

49. Obamites can miss the point of anything.

[Forkboy]

53. You should start a thread about that.

[Perry Logan]

56. I think I'm at my locked-thread limit.

They were wonderful threads.

[Douglas Carpenter]

42. "Rasmussen Markets data gives Sen. Obama a 61.5% chance of winning in November

"Rasmussen Markets data gives Sen. Obama a 61.5% chance of winning in November”(results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants)."

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189"

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

------------------------

Real Clear Politics NATIONAL Average: Obama 47.2/McCain 43.4

The general election poll averages the latest polls from Gallup, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac,ABC News/Wash Post,POS/GQR and LA Times/Bloomberg

link:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

[Occam Bandage]

44. Who's silent? We're in a contested primary, and McCain's had a free pass so far. These numbers

are meaningless. Clinton's at her peak (you'll notice her support hasn't gone up a bit since Q4 last year); Obama's still got plenty of room to move upwards.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

35. I think you have a pretty safe bet.

Assuming, of course, that he doesn't put Hillary on the ballot.

[Toucano]

36. Pollsters don't poll newly registered voters do they?

I think you may be right and this would not be reflected in the polls.

[Straight Shooter]

39. You want to jinx it for your candidate, like the people who predicted a landslide for Kerry?

Keep your cards close to your chest. If O's supporters are convinced there's going to be a landslide, they won't be motivated to get out and vote. "What's one less vote?"

[Douglas Carpenter]

40. I think its VERY possible!!...I'm cautiously optimistic myself

There are a number of reasons.

Among them:

1. Analyst predict that oil could very well reach $200 per barrel

over the next six months. link: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=armYFIWZS8V0&refer=home
There are many, many factors effecting the massive rise in oil price. Although it would not be a stretch to assign some of the responsibility to the policies of the Bush Administration.

But regardless whose fault this is, the consequences will reverberate throughout the entire world economy and the incumbent President of the United States and his Party will be held responsible in the eyes of many, many Americans.

There is no doubt that many, many Americans will associate John McCain with the problem.

This has the potential to create for John McCain and the Republicans a political disaster this coming November.

2. And all of this aside, Rasmussen which has many times be criticized for having a Republican bias reports trending very favorable to the Democrats and very unfavorable to the Republicans. - link:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

"Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62% chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants)."

"Underlying this dismal outlook for the GOP is the fact that more and more people are considering themselves to be Democrats. In fact, the Democrats now have the largest partisan advantage over the Republicans since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis nearly six years ago. " see also this Rasmussen report on Party identity trending: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/party_affiliation/partisan_trends

3. And on top of everything else, along with a very low interest level as reflecting in very low primary participation, the Republicans are having a lot of trouble raising money for the Presidential campaigns:
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.php

4. President Bush Job Approval. Bush Job Approval Falls to Another All-Time Low: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_updates/president_bush_job_approval

"Sixty-five percent (65%) disapprove of the President’s Performance, up two points from a week ago." "Also in April, as the President’s Approval Rating slipped, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats remained near the highest levels ever recorded by Rasmussen Reports."

5. Democrats Trusted More on All Ten Electoral Issues Tracked by Rasmussen Reports: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/trust_on_issues/trust_on_issues

"American voters now trust the Democrats on all ten key electoral issues tracked regularly by Rasmussen Reports. Last month, the GOP’s had an advantage on two issues.

Not surprisingly, the economy is still seen as the most important issue in this year’s presidential campaign--76% of voters say it is a Very Important issue. The Democrats now have a 14-point advantage over the Republicans on this issue, up from eight-points a month ago. Data from the Rasmussen Consumer Index shows that consumer confidence is currently hovering near record lows. Not only is confidence low, three-out-of-four Americans believe that economic conditions are getting worse.

Government Ethics and Corruption is a Very Important issue for 71% of Likely Voters. The Democrats have a huge advantage on this issue—45% now trust them while just 26% prefer the GOP. That lead has also widened since last month, when the Democrats had only a six-point advantage.

Perhaps the biggest surprise comes from the fact that Democrats are now trusted more when it comes to National Security and the War on Terror, an issue long considered a GOP stronghold. The latest polling, however, shows that 49% of voters now trust the Democrats more on this issue while 42% trust the Republicans more. This shift comes at the same time that confidence in the War on Terror has fallen significantly."

[Perry Logan]

50. I think Obama will lose. You don't win elections by splitting your party.

[Pushed To The Left]

55. The only ones splitting the party are Democrats who attack one another and Democrats who won't vote

for the nominee in the General Election.

[Perry Logan]

57. I dunno. I think calling your fellow Democrats racists was a fatal screw-up by the Obama camp.

Hell--even if you thought it was true--where's your sense of strategy?

Whether they're racists or not, you probably won't get their support by calling them that. Earth calling Obamites!

[Pushed To The Left]

59. Supporters of both candidates screwed up with all of the infighting. Hopefully, they

will all come together in November.

[Hippo_Tron]

64. The party isn't split

If it were, Obama would be polling in the 30's. He's polling far better than Gore was in 2000 at this time and far better than Clinton was in 1992 at this time.

[Beregond2]

65. Then why does

Hillary continue to try to do just that?

[Lisa0825]

54. I'm not ready to call it that, but I think it is possible.

I'm wating to see some polls once the nomination is "settled." Lets face it, it's over. But until Hillary stops campaigning, it's still technically a primary.

I even think McCain may have been the "chosen one" specifically because they KNOW they won't win. His age and health are liabilities and they know it. It's the Republican "reward" to him for giving up his "maverick" ways and being a good Bush lap doggie. Lets let him go out with a bang as the nominee.

[graywarrior]

58. I keep getting that feeling

[VotesForWomen]

60. heh. bookmarking. nt

[Mimosa]

62. The economy is tanking: McSame thinks nothing's wrong...YES WE CAN WIN!

Rateyes, your analysis is on target IMHO:

"a landslide election for Obama.

The last time there was a president in the White House this unpopular with the electorate was when Jimmy Carter was in office. I hate to say that, but it's the truth.

Reagan landslide.

Now, back to the premise:

Example: The Georgia Primary. Everyone is saying Georgia is safe for the Republicans. But, consider this. In the Georgia Primary, the Republicans who voted totaled approximately 650,000. Obama, by himself, got over 700,000 votes---50,000 more than all the Republicans put together. And, the Democrats pulled in approximately 1,250,000 total voters.

Georgia doesn't seem that safe to me. Neither do many other "safe" states.

50 state strategy with McCain being portrayed as Bush III, and the Republican party swirling down the toilet, equals, quite possibly a LANDSLIDE for the Democratic nominee, Barack Obama."

Rateyes, GA has more foreclosures than anywhere else. Jobs aren't that easy to come by for many. And there is an illegal immigration problem here which depresses wages. The middle and lower middle class are truly squeezed economically. Everybody is sick of the endless war and questions where tax money is going. People don't want the same old thing!

[papapi]

63. But Diebold's weren't in popular use and Jimmy Carter wasn't a terrorist...

...you have to take into account the fact that the repugnantcans have stolen one and possibly two of the last GEs and G.W.Bush is a monstrous terrorist. The politics of fear can play a big part in how the November election turns out.