New Polling Report National Trial Heat Summary

[flpoljunkie]

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

[opihimoimoi]

1. TIA was right....Bush is Toast

CAN WE SAY.............................Avalanche?

[JCMach1]

2. Just a little caution, there will be 'some' Bush bounce at the end

of the month.

[VirginiaDem]

3. look at the numbers

Just take all the polls and average them out. For likely voters, Kerry has a 3.2 edge. For registered voters, Kerry has a 5.0 lead. More interestingly, if you look at the polls conducted from the 4th on, you see a bigger margin: likely--6.3, registered--5.7.

We don't know for sure statistically but there's a strong common sense case for a Kerry lead that has grown to about 6 points. A lot of people said the bounce might be delayed.

Bush will get some of this back, everything else equal, by the end of the convention but it might not be much given the hardened mindsets of most voters, the continuing mess in Iraq and the continuing bad economic news.