The Poblano Effect: Obama Could Score Huge Electoral Victory Over McCain

[Hissyspit]

http://www.alternet.org/election08/85549

The Poblano Effect: Obama Could Score Huge Electoral Victory over McCain
By Josh Kalven, Progress Illinois. Posted May 17, 2008.

If the huge African-American turnout numbers Obama received in the primaries occurs on Nov. 5, Obama could win 350 electoral votes.

During an April 25 conference call to unveil the Obama campaign's 50-state voter registration drive, deputy campaign manager Steve Hildebrand sounded genuinely exasperated as he tried to steer reporters to the topic at hand.

- snip -

But some new data indicates that, come November 5, we may find ourselves looking back at this year's intensive voter mobilization efforts as what put Obama -- and down-ballot Democrats nationwide -- over the top.

The Poblano Model

This new data was generated by the anonymous 30-year-old author of the website FiveThirtyEight.com. A statistician and analyst, "Poblano" (who asked that his real name be kept private for professional reasons) has developed a sophisticated regression model that uses state-by-state polling data to assess possible general election outcomes in individual states.

"We weight the average based on the reliability of the pollster," Poblano told me. "The polls that have a better track record are obviously going to be emphasized more heavily. We look at sample size. We look at how recent the poll was. We also skew various demographic factors as well."

In the Frequently Asked Questions section of his site, Poblano lists the demographic variables that his model takes into account in each state. Included are John Kerry's 2004 performance, the candidates' respective fundraising efforts, and other factors such as income, race, religion, age, and education level.

Using the resulting baseline averages, Poblano runs simulations -- 10,000 at a time -- to determine the probability of either Obama or Hillary Clinton beating John McCain in the fall.

"The simulation takes the polls we have now and recognizes that this far out from the election there are a lot of uncertainties," Poblano explained. "There was a point in time at which Walter Mondale led Ronald Reagan by 17 points or something. So we look at how much polls move over time, plus the margin of error in each poll, plus the fact that polls are never as good as they claim to be And we just simulate around that."

Poblano's simulation engine has produced some fascinating results. According to his current data, the model predicts that Clinton would win four states against McCain that Obama is favored to lose (FL, AR, WV, OH). Meanwhile, Obama wins eight states where Clinton would likely fail (MI, WI, IA, CO, NM, NV, WA, OR).

Using his simulation engine, Poblano went way against the grain last Monday, predicting that Obama would win the North Carolina primary by 17 points (most expected him to win by a single-digit margin). The following day, Obama took the state by 14.

Poblano's Indiana projection was even more spot on. He predicted a 51-49 Clinton victory. And sure enough, that's what happened.

Later in the week, pollster Mark Blumenthal devoted his National Journal column to the "Poblano Model," noting that it had outperformed five major national polling operations in predicting the results of Tuesday's primaries.

-snip -

The Full Monty

Of course, to really understand the ramifications of Obama's 50-state registration drive and the unprecedented excitement surrounding his campaign, you have to look at how increased turnout across all three of these groups could tilt the electoral map in his favor.

So Poblano devised several possible scenarios. The first, titled the "40/20 Plan," increases the youth vote by 40 percent and the African-American vote by 20 percent, while keeping the Latino vote at the 2004 level. The "40/30/20 Plan" projects a 40 percent increase among 18-24 year-olds, a 30 percent increase among Latinos, and a 20 percent in increase in the black vote. Finally comes the "Best Case Scenario," which assumes a 40 percent increase among African-Americans and a 50 percent increase in both the youth and Latino vote nationally.

The "40/20 Plan" alone increases Obama's chances of winning from 49.5 percent to 68.3 percent. The "40/30/20 Plan," meanwhile, lifts this probability over 70 percent:

These projections illustrate the extraordinary level of flexibility enjoyed by the Obama campaign as they head towards the general election. Rather than focusing on simply winning Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, they have a big enough war chest and a broad enough base of support to create all sorts of contingencies in case one of those typical battleground states goes for McCain.

"If Obama wins the traditional big three, he's going to have a tough time losing anyway," Poblano said. "But now you give him a margin for error where if something goes wrong in Ohio -- if you're winning North Carolina and Iowa and Colorado, it's a very robust scenario for him with a lot of Plan A's, Plan B's, and Plan C's to win the election."

MORE

[Wetzelbill]

1. yeah, here is a NY Times article that augments the OP

In the South, a Force to Challenge the G.O.P
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/16/us/politics/16south.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

[Hippo_Tron]

3. Yea Wetzelbill looks like Obama's energizing the black vote will help you in November

[Wetzelbill]

8. I think so, those voters have been breaking my way

I'm big with the lunchpail minority vote that everybody covets so much. I'm big with the youth vote, but all my landslide wins in elementary schools don't count because of age and all.

[anigbrowl]

2. Not only that...the GOP's conservative base wants to lose

I'm 100% serious. http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6005414

[sandnsea]

4. What complete garbage

Hillary would lose OR & WA - but win WV & OH???

It's amazing what kind of baloney people get paid to peddle.

[grantcart]

27. This is why the Clinton campaign is in shatters

Don't like the source trash the messenger.

Poblano has been offering his modelling up for free. Here is historic Super Tuesday thread that put him ahead of everyone else

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/31/75516/0667/643/446831


When the obituary of the Clinton campaign is written the number one reason for its failure is that it put the person responsible for controlling the message of the campaign with its pollster. It eliminated any possibility of creative debate within the campaign on what the numbers mean and what the message should be.

1) Poblano's record in the primaries has been brilliant

2) His work has been offered for free.

[regnaD kciN]

51. Bulletin: Hillary WOULD lose Washington...

All of the poll results I've seen up here have Obama way up on McCain, but Hillary losing to him.

She is definitely not a favorite of Washington Democrats, let alone Independents.

[sandnsea]

55. Oh god, I hate her, and no she would not

I live in Oregon. No way would any Dem lose either state this year. It's ludicrous. I would have liked to have believed the rest of the article, except for that absurdity.

[mcking]

57. This Oregonian agrees with sandnsea

In Western Oregon, a yellow dog with a D after its name would win this year over McCain.

Notice I'm not mentioning Eastern Oregon.

[crimsonblue]

53. Oregon and Washington have a huge indie/hippie scene...

that has been much more supportive of Obama. And WV and OH have more blue collar voters, which have been more supportive of Clinton. The views in Oregon and Washington on race and diversity are likely to be far more open than those in OH and WV. I'm not calling WV and Ohians racists by any means, but as a group they are less likely to vote for a minority than a female. I don't think OR and WA are less inclined to vote for females, but are more inclined (or willing) to vote for a minority.

[Alexander]

5. I predict a landslide for Obama in November.

The turnout for Democrats this year has been huge. A lot of Republicans can't stand McCain and Obama attracts all kinds of voters.

[Wetzelbill]

6. turnout will be big

You can't account for that so much in polls. You could poll 1000 people of a diverse sampling and it might be an even race, but that doesn't account for just how many more Dems have registered and turned out this year. Pundits were stunned the first few races because Dem turnout was so unbelievable.

[loudsue]

62. Dems & indies have turned out in huge numbers in the past 4 elections, but the machines

have screwed with the tallies so severely that there has been increased panic among SANE people in the U.S. that more & more people are getting to the polls. Those who formerly sat at home & let the rest of the country vote have been wondering what in the hell was wrong with everybody that they kept electing those idiotic crooked & perverted republicans. So more & more people have voted every election to get rid of them. Since the idiotic crooked & perverted republicans OWN THE MEDIA AND OWN THE VOTING MACHINE COMPANIES, you don't hear anything about what is really going on in our country. I think it would be fairly accurate to say that all but about 25% of Americans are in full panic mode at this time.

THAT is the problem with computerized voting machines. MILLIONS of votes can be switched in small and large towns across the country to put the crooks back in, at the stroke of a computer key. Until we get rid of that method of having our elections tampered with, we are in trouble.

Even this primary season has been completely fiddled with by the republican/corporate ownership: you saw how the ideas of Edwards were marginalized, and seldom mentioned. The whole primary....on BOTH sides....has been a manipulated and questionable reflection of the political and economic views of the majority of Americans.

[opihimoimoi]

7. Yup, agree....but I been wrong in the past....

[K Gardner]

23. I've been "feeling" this all along and can't understand the dire predictions or polls. It will be a

BLOWOUT.

[Stop Cornyn]

43. I don't think 2008 will be the mirror image of 1984's Mondale-Reagan debacle, but close: a veritable

landslide.

[babylonsister]

9. Rec'd! I wouldn't be surprised, and am forever hopeful! nt

[Zachstar]

13. I would be.

Sadly there is still lost of support for Bush and McCain in this country and there are a few states that just will not vote for an African American for race reasons alone.

It's likely to be somewhat close. Enough to not call it until the polls have been closed for a few hours. But when the smoke Clears Obama is likely to be the president.

[a kennedy]

15. I hate to disagree with you Zachstar.....I don't want it close at all

we all have been through that twice, 00 and 04, and I'm not mentally able to handle a close election again, I WANT TO STOMP THEM!! I want it so decisive that it'll make them think long and hard about it for another presidential cycle, and the one after that, and the one after that. :woohoo: :applause: :patriot: :patriot: :patriot: I'm ready for a killing, and for all red states to turn blue. :dem: :patriot:

[Zachstar]

25. Well hopefully it will not be close.

[Zachstar]

10. If McCain continues to not distance himself from Bush... Obama will win in a landslide.

Bush and McCain tried to throw two strikes on Obama and he knocked them WAY out of the park. Bush is only going to keep trying. So McCain has to distance himself or he is going to fail.

Hes already gotten the title of flip flopper which partly killed Kerry's chances in 2004

[rove karl rove]

11. those are very large numbers

to have to increase, and it's also assuming all the other demographic groups stay static - the national polls don't support it, either.

[Hola]

12. Indiana was 50-50

50.4 to 49.6, less than 12,000 votes out of 130K cast.

"Poblano's Indiana projection was even more spot on. He predicted a 51-49 Clinton victory. And sure enough, that's what happened."

[Henny Penny]

14. And then.... there's the real world!

[grantcart]

28. And no one has been better at predicting real world outcomes than Poblano

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/31/75516/0667/643/446831 on Super Tuesday

[sonias]

16. I love Poblano

Whoever Poblano is, they are incredibly good, and good for us.

:yourock: Poblano!

Yes we can!

Sonia

[noel711]

17. I've been following the Poblano stats...

but not saying much, as we all know pollsters and politicos
that make bold claims, and then fall on their faces....

But his system has been the closest, without fail, thru out this season.

Just keep watchin'...

[phrigndumass]

18. I'm very intrigued by this! When a statistician is able to project closely ...

... their projections should be watched closely. If Poblano is able to develop a longer track record, s/he could be the pollster to watch this year.

mod mom turned me onto the Poblano model a few days ago, but I hadn't had the chance to really dig through the website yet. I blogrolled it in my journal, though.

Thanks for posting this, Hissyspit! K/R

[grantcart]

29. He is the only one I read at DailyKos look at is work on SuperTuesday

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/31/75516/0667/643/446831

[phrigndumass]

31. Wow, how could I have missed his diary? And that's from January.

Thanks gc, I saved the link in my favs.

[myrna minx]

19. It's so exciting to consider a massive voter turn out.

:bounce:

[RamboLiberal]

20. IMHO the past couple of weeks the bloviators and Clinton

campaign have been putting too much emphasis on the "hard-working white Reagan Democrats" while ignoring the fact that if at this point the SDs would take the nom from Obama there would be a significant downturn in black and new voters.

I think she'd lose in that case or just squeek out a win.

While Obama may lose those old battleground states like OH and WV, but could still pull off an impressive win by the effort they've put in to their 50-state registration effort in taking states we have not taken before.

That is another failure of the Clinton campaign. They ran on the old Terry McAuliffe plan that concentrated on the traditional blue states and sweated it out in FL, PA, OH. That plan lost for us in 2000 and 2004.

Time to give the Dean 50 state and Obama get out the vote efforts a shot. I just hope the Clinton's haven't split the party too badly.

[roseBudd]

22. Now that OH has a Dem SoS we can count on our urban cities resisting GOP AA suppression tactics

[roseBudd]

21. There is a huge potential to increase African American turnout that is currently

quite low in low income communities. Those communities are urban and the potential voters are very accessible without database driven walk lists.

I came up with what I call a 3Bs strategy to reach likely democratic voters in the urban core.

Bus Stops.

Barber Shops

Basketball Courts and other outdoor areas where the urban low income residents gather.

I found Barber Shops and all African American businesses to be very receptive to hanging flyers that promote the dem candidate or disparage the republican candidate

Some of you may remember how popular my little ditty, "George Bush is a punk ass bitch" was in 2004.

George Bush is a punk ass bitch
Crony capitalist all about the rich

Dumbass sat for 7 minutes like a dope
While schoolkids read 'My Pet Goat'

No WMD in Iraq you fool
Iran got nukes, N. Korea do too

Kerry punked Bush in each debate
Idiot boy Bush could not relate

Punk ass bitch can kiss my ass
Back to Texas like rained on trash

November 2nd is when I vote
Not for the fool who read 'My Pet Goat'

[MediaBabe]

38. 2004. That was the year Geirge Bush lost

Oh wait, he didn't lose.

[roseBudd]

39. That was also the year we had a bore for the nominee, Kerry, nobody was feeling

Kerry, they were just voting against Bush.

[dansolo]

24. This illustrates the flaw with the DLC approach

The attitude of the DLC is that the voters who aren't currently motivated can't be relied upon to vote, so they need to keep fighting for the "Independent", "Reagan Democrat" portion of the electorate. The problem is that this portion of the electorate is very fickle, and easily swayed by the MSM. OTOH, you have Howard Dean and Barack Obama who are taking the approach that there is at least 40% of the eligible population that consistently sits out of elections. If we can just motivate them to get involved, they form a huge block of untapped voters. With the recent trends of close elections, it only takes a small increase in voter turnout to make a difference. Combine that with the failing legacy of the GOP, and you can have a blowout.

[grantcart]

26. Poblano - The only reason that I read Daily Kos

I don't spend much time at DailyKos - I find it confusing to manuever. There is one guy that I have earmarked and that is Poblano



Look at his work on SuperTuesday http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/31/75516/0667/643/446831


Now look at this article from Chicago 1993 outlining how Obama changes political landscapes with voter registration drives: http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/January-1993/Vote-of-Confidence/


In my opinion if you want to know what the real liklihood of what the scenarios are this fall use the Poblano model.


This is so far IMHO the most important post about the GE posted to date.


Please rec this OP. Thanks Cary

[Colobo]

30. Viva Poblano!

[MindMatter]

32. Fascinating reading

And this is the statical rationale behind the 50 state strategy.

The GOP is going to be hemorrhaging money when they have to defend all of their "safe" states.

[DU GrovelBot]

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[ej510]

34. I don't believe it. But I have heard conservatives mention losing this election cycle

on purpose in order to regroup in 2yrs.

[me b zola]

35. K&R

:kick:

[grantcart]

36. Thanks again Hissy

[featherman]

37. Poblano's fivethirtyeight.com is one of my favorites and I check it every day

Sometimes several times if a lot is happening.

[depakid]

40. I'm always wary of modeling based on this sort of data

Some may recall that in 2004, we had another sophisticated modeler, who predicted time and time again that our chances of winning were enormous.

Unfortunately, as often happens- his conclusions were "overstated."

Even with (or sometimes because of) weighting, the old GIGO rule still applies.

Garbage in, garbage out.

From what I've seen of the cheap polls in 2008- that's truer this election cycle than its ever been, in my lifetime at least.

[MediaBabe]

41. The youth vote

If you are hoping the youth vote will increase by 40% you may as well give it up. Maybe 4%. Better to work on that black vote. If there are that many who usually sit it out.

[hulklogan]

42. You're 100% right.

We've been counting on the youth vote for years, and we always find that they don't turn out to vote in the numbers we hope.

[Donna Zen]

44. What Gov. Dean said

When I saw Gov. Dean speaking at the Yearly Kos, he said in 2004 contrary to rumors, the increase in the youth vote was the largest increase of any voting group. That was not unexpected since the war the issue. Then he said that what was surprising in 2006 was that the youth vote again increased. The DNC feels very good about this.

The media may diss the youth, but they ain't buying. Instead, they're voting.

[MediaBabe]

49. Okay. But where are the numbers?

It's easy to claim an increase but where are the numbersx to back it up. He didn't provide them? Politicos rarely do.

[Donna Zen]

56. Heh? Were you in Chicago?

Dean was very specific and had a slide show iirc. Besides, I don't think that Dean's a liar.

[slinkerwink]

45. his blog has been great this season

[VotesForWomen]

46. i am seriously bookmarking all these thread predicting a huge O victory, cuz you know that after O l

loses big time, all his minions here are going to deny that this absurd stuff was ever said.

[onehandle]

47. Here's hoping. nt

[jazzjunkysue]

48. The GOP vote is staying home in 08- It's purely psychological: They have to vote for the winner.

And if their guy is bound to lose, they are programmed genetically to stay home. They are just not able to go pull the lever for the loser.

The main reason most GOP's identify with them is that they are followers and insecure and need something like a party or a ball team to wins so they can identify as winners.

Only democrats will come out and vote for a predicted loser. They voter their hearts, regardless of the chances.

Now, that's true in any normal year. But this time, their white POW veteran is going to lose to a black man, and an historic black man. This will be more than losing, this will be losing their map of reality.

The 08 election is going to be the source of so much emotional ego damage for the archie bunkers of the world, that they will have no choice but to shut it all away from their consciousness. They'll be immobilized with fear and hate. They will be unable to get in the pick up and drive to the polls. Find a parking space. Walk in and wait in line for their check in. They're just not going to be able to do it.

They already hate mcsame largely because they know the GOP has no chance this year and they need a reason: Oh, yeah. It's mccain's fault, not "My party."

Obama is the next president and he already knows it.

[MediaBabe]

50. Nope. Republicans do not think that way.

Republicans do not prepare in advance for a loss. They leave that to Democrats like Obama supporters already insissting that if Obama loses in November it's because Hillary (fill in blank here.)

Republicans remember abortion and gay marriage and guns and Jesus and VOTE for the Republican. Every time.

[KSinTX]

52. Nobody's factoring in McCain's HUGE weakness

He hasn't broken 80 percent in ANY primary since becoming the presumptive nominee. Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee have sucked 25 percent or more of the Republican vote CONSSTENTLY even after Huck dropped out. McCain's pulled just 76/77/74/73 in the last four contests (WV/IN/NC/PA respectively). ONLY in PA was Paul, the only viable contender, in the number two slot. The first primary after Huckabee ended his bid and endorsed McCain, McCain drew only 55 percent of Republican votes and Huckabee STILL got 29 percent of them.

While we're gnashing our teeth over a hotly contested race, the real focus belongs on why MCCAIN can't capture his base.

[mcollier]

60. This video might have something to do with it...

McCain's Problems Must See... Pass on... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TbN2fkPoQE

[Ysabel]

54. i was fiddling around with a map the other day...

and came up with some very similar possible scenarios...

- k and r...

:)

[Awsi Dooger]

58. Poblano doesn't know what he's doing

Primaries and general elections are not the same mold. He's making a novice mistake by failing to recognize that. Primaries can be tilted based on motivation of the base. In a general election it's preference, preference, preference. Both sides will show up in equal force, and it's blatant ignorance to suggest 20-40% surges of participation among major voting blocks. You might as well predict there won't be a single reported incident of voting machine-related difficulty on election day. In fact, your chances are far superior there.

He makes another gaffe by insisting specific states will wildly depart from their traditional partisan tendency. That's too much of a reliance on early statewide polling. Statewide polling is more vital in primaries, national polls more relevant in general elections. Poblano obviously doesn't grasp that. Once national polls settle, the state margins will fall in line with their long held patterns of allegiance. You won't have nonsense like winning North Carolina but simultaneously losing Ohio. My god, does anyone comprehend what the odds would be on that exacta? Just fluff it out there and maybe someone will fall for it.

He's done a great job on the primaries but let's not ignore how inane it is to assert participation gaps as the pivotal factor in November.

Here are the recent examples:

* 2000: I have tapes from CNN that cycle, including election morning, Republicans confident of simple victory since they're more hungry after 8 years of Clinton. "We can't wait to storm the polls," one young Republican said on a morning show on CNN. Meanwhile, the GOP was shocked its turnout failed in key rural areas, and that by all rights should have been enough for Gore to carry Florida, and therefore the election.

* 2002: Conventional wisdom all year was Democrats were incensed after 2000, and would vote in higher than typical percentage for a midterm, opposing the unjust president. We know how that turned out

* 2004: Even Tucker Carlson, normally an excellent political prognosticator, was fooled by this one, sensing a brewing hatred of Bush that would lead to huge Democratic turnout and a defeat of the incumbent.

* 2006: This one was off as well. All year we were told GOP turnout would be depressed. It was significant. Independents avalanched the Republicans by voting like pseudo-Democrats but the margin could have been significantly wider if Republicans had stayed home as forecast.

I remember in '04, amidst hoopla over our registration drives, posting a thread in this forum emphasizing the numbers meant nothing, that we weren't going to swamp the GOP with new voters. Kerry had to win it via preference. I was attacked in that thread and mocked via PM, but it turned out to be accurate.

Similarly, in '08 we've already been treated to plenty of nonsense. Some analysts proposed Hillary was invincible due to the surreal uptick in the women's vote that was sure to follow. Along the same lines, it's comical when posters here or elsewhere fall for the simpleton surface theory that Hillary would be doomed in November, causing frenzied turnout level by Republicans since they despise her.

Frankly, that type of analysis is the most inept of all. It's very symbolic of no background in handicapping, and latching hold of the first thing that sounds good. Hillary would not have been buried by GOP turnout, and Obama won't be whisked on a cloud by sensational Democratic turnout.

Everything tends to drift back to the beginning. You'll never go wrong with that type of analysis. It's a 50/50 era but with 2-5 points of generic Democratic situational tilt in '08 due to Bush's atrocities. Obama forfeits some of that edge by virtue of demographic weakness in key swing states, and his tender resume, always a problem in an open race. Being black unfortunately is still a minus, not a plus, in the vital states and demographics, just like Hillary's gender would have been a swing negative as well, repelling threatened white men away from her.

I'm not going to be wary of identifying the racial aspect as a general election problem for Obama, just as it was a primary benefit. This is sensible evaluating, not a popularity contest. Pat Buchanon had it right the other day, when asked what Hillary can or can't do for Obama as VP: "She can't make him white."

[Gman]

59. The hole in this is the HIspanic vote

Hispanics have not received Obama well and are lukewarm at best about him. Hispanics are highly enthusiastic supporters of Hillary. I don't think that enthusiasm can be transfered as Hispanics in general will not vote for a Black.

[BlooInBloo]

63. Then you should have no trouble pointing out where in his model he left it out.

[ekwhite]

61. The Poblano effect makes for some interesting strategies on both sides

Does McCain pick Condi Rice as a running mate, alienating the Right Wing of his party, tying him to Bush, but potentially splitting the black and female vote. Does he pick Huckabee to strengthen his southern base and his ties to the religious right? Does he go with Romney to strengthen his southwestern appeal? Or a right-wing Latino to prevent the 40/30/20 plan from taking effect? I think McCain has to make a bold move, but I predict he wont.

For Obama, the options are equally as interesting. Does he pick a female running mate to defend against the Condi Rice strategy, or go with Bill Richardson to strengthen his credentials and make the 40/30/20 plan work? Does he go with John Edwards for the southern favorite son effect?

This will be an interesting chess match indeed.