Usama's "capture" would seal the deal for *. Am i wrong?

[digno dave]

I have a sinking feeling that Usama's "capture" is pending. Six months ago i had no idea how this scenario would play out in the election but i now have a better idea. i think it would tip a majority of the independents to *. can someone smarter than me dispute this, please?

[benburch]

1. Not even.

The economy is a shambles.

[Dying Eagle]

2. Its been my fear for a while

Its also a double edged sword. I don't want him caught so Kerry can win, but I also want him caught because he needs to be put away!

[FloridaPat]

3. Everyone's expecting it. It just might backfire. Just took at the

latest terror alert. They were patting themselves on the back for doing such a good job, and then everyone finds out it old stuff. Panic. So they came out with names. That is rather unusual. They usually say it's some prisoner and don't mention names. But this time they did and it ended up to be a mole on our side.

Here's something intersting www.whatreallyhappened.com pointed out - a lot of the time when these high level al Qaeda people are arrested, it turns out their our guys - Mossad or CIA, or in this case ISI. With an alQaeda man behind every tree, you would think they could find one sometimes.

[buff2]

4. The American people have already made their minds up

Kerry will win,and it's OSAMA not Usama. Fox channel is the only ones who spells it that way.I guess it's because they put the USA in Usama...LOL

[newscaster]

5. I am not so sure.

It has become apparent that Bush does many things for political reasons and if Osama were to show up in American handcuffs before the election, this country would be certain it was bogus and that Bush timed the news to benefit himself. Thats would show him even more clearly to be the liar we all know he is. I think what it would seal is the future of his political career

[joefree1]

6. First see if your tin hat is on too tight

Second, why worry, if the neo-cons are so smart and sneaky they got Usama it's all over.

But then if they're that smart and sneaky how come they couldn't find one (wink wink) little itty bitty WMD?

I'm a "the glass is half full" liberal and I think they're so dumb or too busy counting their loot they couldn't find either.

[Lex]

7. This Administration has no credibility--many, many would say

it was rigged somehow and related to the election.

No one trusts *anything* they do now that they lied their asses off about Iraq.

Every terror alert, every bit of information they give the public is now suspect.

So I think Usama's capture would be met with suspicion about the timing. And besides, how the f-- long did it take them anyway?

[bowens43]

8. If he's caught bush wins in a landslide n/t

[benburch]

10. Bullchips!

Never happen.

We can then ask why it took him three years to do what he promised would take a few months.

We can then ask why he went to Iraq when Osama (Yes, Usama is probably the more correct transliteration) wasn't there.

But calm yourself; He's dead, or so I believe. He died at Tora Bora. Our fuel-air munitions got him and basically cremated his remains beyond even DNA identification.

[digno dave]

26. Hasn't Usama been heard on tapes referencing events that proove

he was alive as recently as a year ago?
ANyway, if he's caught * will get a bump. I't not like his #s will drop. Impossible. And all he(kerry, too) needs is the tiniest of bumps to charge ahead.
Something funny is going on. With all the info out of Pakistan and England about cells being disrupted. Al Qeda has been hit hard recently by various intelligence agenies around the world. I think it is leadin up to something big...ie Usama's capture within the next month.

[bowens43]

30. I hope you're right but I think you're wrong.

IMO if Osama is caught before the election nothing else will matter.

[opihimoimoi]

9. Only if it can be shown conclusively the attacks cease. If the attacks

continue, he did nothing....as in Iraq...Saddam was captured and the sutuation intensified/became worse.....

[DaveinMD]

12. this is a key point

the war on terror does not end when we catch Bin Laden.

[opihimoimoi]

20. exactly

[bowens43]

31. I think you're greatly underestimating the stupidity

of the average American.

[libhill]

11. I'm no smarter

then the next guy, but I think you are correct - I wonder if they don't have Osama on ice somewhere at this very minute --- "Hey, looky thar, 'ol Presdent Bush is shore nuff a straight shooter - done caught that thar Arab Osammy been Lowdown feller, jus' like he done said!"

[Gyre]

13. You may be wrong

Those who are voting for Kerry are predominantly those who've decided that Bush lied to the country on numerous occasions for his own purposes and hence, isn't trustworthy as president. Once you've made that leap there's tons of evidence to support that conclusion.

My guess is that most people who will vote for change have made their decision. I never would've thought it possible, but with the momentum favoring the dems, the spirit of Joe McCarthy obviously alive and well in the repubs (making them so much less attractive), the production of Osama will do nothing to change their minds that Bush is a liar and taking the country in the wrong direction.

What it will mean to the swings is that the attack on Afghanistan was justified. Bottom line: I don't think it will be dispostive re: the outcome.

[janx]

14. I'm not smarter than you are, but I have to disagree. I want

Bin Laden captured as soon as possible--wait, I wanted the emphasis to stay on al Qaeda to that we could deal with him--but it has been years and this hasn't happened so far. Instead, roughly 1000 American soldiers have died in Iraq, any allies we had have lost soldiers, and tens of thousands of Iraqis are dead; then there are the wounded. And this was all based on either incompetent speculation or downright lies; take your pick.

The capture of Bin Laden now would be like an afterthought. And with everything else that has spiraled out of control, I wouldn't count on a Bush* win even if he produced the guy's head on a platter two days before the election.

[movonne]

15. It only took almost 4 years...still have not caught the anthrax killer

and that should have been simple.

[DaveinMD]

16. I'm convinced

the anthrax killer was a right wing anti-government activist. Didn't you notice that only Dems got the packages.

[JI7]

17. i agree

i believe it was also

[libhill]

21. Or -

an anti - liberal activist, working for Bushco.

[Warren DeMontague]

27. I agree, except maybe with the word

"anti"

[tedoll78]

18. I'll bet this:

If Osama is miraculously caught in October, Dean will come right out an ask what more than half the country will be thinking: "So.. how long have you had him in custody?"

I have nothing against Kerry, and I'm gladly voting for him, but he'll "give the President the benefit of the doubt."

Here's the kicker of my bet though: if Dean (and others) are loud enough about this, I'll bet that Kerry would still have a shot at 270EVs.

[earthside]

19. Bush Needs Osama

Once he is caught ... what next?

The danger for the Bush campaign is that while there will be a week or so of chest thumping, the American people will soon start to ask why are we spending billions and getting troops killed if we have pretty much won?

So they would have to get Osama in October for it to work at all, but the way things are going, people will have indeed made up their minds and it will be too late.

It is better for Bush to have Osama out there, threatening us, reminding us that we need Bush's "resolve" to keep us safe. Look how things really started to go downhill with support for the Iraq war after Saddam was caught.

No, I'm not so sure even capturing or killing bin Laden will save W.

[in_cog_ni_to]

It's too late

to pull Usama out of a hat. THAT should have been done before starting an illegal, preemptive and unilateral war in Iraq. His time has run out on Usama. People have his # now (even Independents). He lied about the war, WMD, Mushroom clouds, yellowcake and Saddam/911 connection. It will be TOO obvious that USAMA had been caught earlier and they were hiding him, using him as a political ploy to win the election.

He has lost ALL credibilty. It's too late. Usama can't save his ass now. A day late and a dollar short, IMCPO.

[in_cog_ni_to]

22. dupe

[Old and In the Way]

23. Doubtful.

1st, I don't believe OBL is amongst the living. I think that's why Bush made his odd statement in Matrch of 2002 that he really didn't care. OBL was still important as an AQ boogeyman, but Bush probably knew he was dead and was lowering expectations of his capture. Plus, I've seen no conclusive evidence in the past 2 years that shows he's alive. Rather odd for the world's #1 Evil Doer not to be taunting the infidels and boosting the morale of his fighters, no?

I am beginning to think there may be some October surprises.....but these could well be damaging to Bush.

[cardlaw]

24. Plus,

if Osama is dead, they don't have the fear factor. Better keep the ghost of Osama alive so people will still believe he is a major threat to their safety.

[WiseMen]

25. Real revival of grassroots passion and revolutionary zeal could buffer

buttress a Kerry majority against last minute "events."

[LTR]

28. I don't think so anymore

Remember, Saddam's capture had a short lived effect on Bush's popularity.

And many people have the seed of doubt planted. I've seen polls that claim as much as 90% of the public have already made up their minds. Bush's popularity is sliding hard. Last number I saw was low to mid 40s, and sliding downhill. At this rate, he'll be in the 30's come fall - too low to enjoy a captured bin Laden scenario.

And if bin Laden is captured prior to the election, highly unlikely that it would be by one of our own. More likely Pakistanis. Especially closer to Winter.

Not sure even bin Laden can save him. And al Qaeda could still function effectively without him. But at least Bush will try.

I'm sure the Kerry camp is ready for a bin Laden scenario. They'd be foolish not to be.

[cynatnite]

29. If Not Osama...then Cheney

I'm new here so I'm just gonna jump in.

I read something earlier today that talked about how low Cheney's approval numbers are. They're practically in the basement and not expected to see daylight unless his pacemaker quits.

Since many people feel that he represents all that's wrong with this administration, some also believe that by getting rid of him and picking someone else as VP it could help Bush.

This is what I'm seeing here:

Cheney steps up and says that he's quitting because he's a liability to the Prez and since he believes in him so much and think he's the best guy and all that, he's gonna step aside. You know he'd be passable for a political martyr. Or he'd say he's quitting for health reasons since his health completely blows.

So the choice would be who to pick if he did this. The first one that came to mind would be Colin Powell. I personally believe he hates his job and hates working with these people, but I also think he'd be convinced to do it for his country and all. Before all this Bush crap I considered him to be very credible. He does have an impeccable military record to date.

Even though I don't think his credibility is all that great now, I do think he'd be the one that could guarantee Bush the win.

I'm really curious to know what everyone thinks.

Thanks!

Cyn:)

[JNelson6563]

32. Here's the thing

Saddam didn't have the devoted followers like bin Laden--whose followers view him as a savior of sorts. Many would die to protect him, or kill. He's well hidden and well protected. These keystone cops will never catch him.

I'm sure the house of Saud will make sure of it.

Julie

[soothsayer]

33. Nope. Dumbya is OUT OF HERE

And I for one can't wait for whistleass to be voted out and GONE.

[PATRICK]

34. Schemes in motion

still being played out dutifully by the media. Al Qaida almost defeated! new captures! And yet it is going over like a lead balloon lined with suspicion.

Either you get everything your way both ways or nothing really works. Terror then success is not washing either way recently.

Yet I think they get something, enough to keep them going on the Plan. Even the simpleminded scheme of tax cuts is still being played out as W had said years ago, though the tarnish is pretty heavy there too.

I have two concerns. They will not abandon the script no matter the harm done to others in a losing cause. That it partially will work until the whole country yells for them to give it up.

It is going to be an ugly, long couple of months, not a cakewalk- even if it ends in a landslide as it should.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. Stop Being Intimidated By These Guys...

Our party needs a spine transplant....


Bush and company are not ten feet tall....

[TexasSissy]

36. Yes, I think it'd tip the scales in *'s favor. Not a landslide, but enuf

to win.

However, I'm not too concerned about this happening. I think that Osama is clearly out of *'s reach by now. The time to catch him was soon after 9/11 before he headed for the hills with his entourage.

BUT I think they will try more of what they've been doing lately...continuing to catch AQ operatives, trying to make them seem like bigger and bigger catches. I don't think this will be enough to tip the scales, though.

An actual "hit" by AQ in the U.S. would ensure a * win, though. Is this possible? I wonder. I think AQ would like * to remain Prez, though I think it is likely that at the end of October AQ might pull a big one on U.S. soil.

[GalleryGod]

37. This Year's BIG secret? There is NO Bounce!

No Dead Dutch Bounce for Bush!
No captured Sadaam bounce for Bush!
A Small Bounce for JK with Edwards pick!

Here's a Kerry Bounce for you::bounce: :bounce: :kick: :wow:

[Tanbark]

38. Osama's capture...

Dave, he may get a "bounce", but I think that, by a small majority, most people will be skeptical of the timing. As they well should...

Heard an interview on public radio a couple of days ago, in which a Pakistani, who works for some american think tank, was very candid in saying that Musharraf and the generals are being good flea-market sellers, in that they don't want to give up too many "high-value targets" too soon. Cheapens the value of the product. They'll dole 'em out to us one at a time, probably (if they can find some of the tribesmen willing to rat him out) ending with Osama, himself.
The biggest thing the dems have going for them, is the steadily increasing cynicism over BushCo, because of all the lies about the "intelligence" they used to stampede us into the invasion of a country which had nothing to do with 9-11 and was no threat to us or anyone else.

[BillZBubb]

39. Nope, too little too late.

It would help Bush*, but with the Iraq debacle and the economic mess, he can't break 50% of the voters.

[napi21]

40. It depends on timing. If NOW, won't do a thing, if 10/31 it a problem.

Same as Saddam's capture. Bounce for a few days, but when problems in Iraq remained, the bounce went away. If there's enough time between capture and election, there won't be any effect. If it's within 2 or 3 days, it would halp shrub. I'm not sure if it's enough to win!