Can Obama (if he is our Nominee) stop Hillary from TAKING the Number 2 spot? Probably not.

[DemVet]

I've done a lot of reading on this...from both sides of the aisle. (I read everything...I think it developes ones political awareness as well as reasoning and debating skills)

Anyway, Hillary is going in to the convention with almost 50% of everything...Pledged Delegates, Popular Vote, and Superdelegates.

In addition to the roll call votes for President, in which I still think something may be brewing in the Clinton campaign as far as the credentials and rules committees, there are roll call votes for the Veep. The convention does not have to vote for the Nominee's choice for Veep.

I think it would be hard for the convention, particularly Hillary "pledged" and superdelegates, to deny her the spot if she got up to the podium and said she wanted it. This is especially true since she brings certain demographics to vote for Obama that may not otherwise.


edit...typo

[tekisui]

1. I don't think she wants it.

And nearly half of anything is not half of anything. With Superdelegates and even Pledged leaving her, she won't have much leverage at the COnvention.

[DemVet]

3. Maybe not...we'll see.

[RiverStone]

51. There is so much about Hillary's actions that I would not have predicted...

I honestly have no clue if she wants the VP or not.

Conventional wisdom no longer applies.

[Botany]

2. There is no way she is going to be Veep

Her negatives are way too high and the choice is up
to Obama not Hillary or her supporters. He will have the
majority by a nice margin and "crap" she starts will be
stopped PDQ.

[DemVet]

5. Read my post again.

Voting for the Veep is totally seperate than voting for the Nominee.

If she wants it, it's hers.

[Botany]

13. The nominee picks his or her V.P. and the convention votes on it ....

.... if Obama has the support to be the nominee he will have the
votes to have the person he chooses to be his running mate. No
way the same people who voted him into the nomination will
vote against him and his choice.

Besides 28 years of a bush or a Clinton is enough and
Hillary's negative #s preclude her being on the ticket.

[DemVet]

14. You forget that Obama, if he wins, wins only with barely HALF of the delegates.

The Nominee's Veep choice is not a lock.

[Botany]

27. He will have the majority and the majority rules.

And in any "floor fights" Obama will have the muscle
to win.

[Orsino]

58. The rather close race will give her some justification for trying to change those rules...

...simply because this hasn't happened in recent memory. I suspect that some sort of deal will be struck, but I don't know that Clinton has the oomph to buy the VP slot.

I don't know what else Obama could offer to tempt her to leave her incredibly safe Senate seat. Secretary of Labor, to allow her professed concern for working-class Americans, finally, to shine? She may believe that she can accomplish more as a senator, and if so, then why would she concede early?

I don't think Obama will have to placate her, but obviously there is a lot to gain by his doing so. How quickly, for example, does he want to unify Democrats?

[Mezzo]

10. LOL!! If she wants it, there is no way YOU can stop her (or Obama for that matter)

and if she has a popular vote lead, you might wanna flip that ticket.

[tekisui]

24. She won't have the popular vote, and of course she can be stopped.

Obama will choose his VP, and the COnvention will vote for that ticket.

[Dawgs]

Do you really think the delegates are going to embarrass Obama in front of the country?

Cause that's what your saying.

Imagine Obama picking a VP (not Hillary) and then the delegates go against that at the convention.

It's crazy. :crazy:

[DemVet]

6. Crazy...but VERY possible.

I imagine Wild Bill will do a little arm-twisting on the Obama Campaign and prevent all of this. That is, if Hillary wants the Number 2 spot.

[Dawgs]

9. Crazy? So is Ron Paul stealing the Republican nom from McCain.

It's stupid to even speculate about it, because it will never happen.

[MH1]

56. So...in other words...the Clintons would be willing to throw the GE to McCain....

just so she could be on the ticket?

Sorry DemVet, it makes NO sense.

[islandmkl]

4. is this the final goal of hillary supporters, to have her as VP?

it seems that true hillary supporters would endeavor to have her in a position of power and leadership, like Senate Majority Leader...

is the balm of the VP enough to soothe the sting of this nomination loss?

for Hillary? for her supporters?

if one was a 'true believer' in hillary's leadership qualities, i would think one would like her in the most active & influential role she could achieve...and that role is not the VP...

[DemVet]

8. To answer your question...no. But that's not what this thread is about.

[leftofcool]

18. NO

No second class spot, EVER

[Danger Mouse]

7. I don't think she'll try to take it.

[DemVet]

11. Look at it this way...

...it may be her only shot at the WH. If Obama does get elected, what is she going to do, run against him in 2012? Being the heir apparent after an Obama Administration is her best shot at the Number 1 slot.

[Danger Mouse]

22. That's a good point. If she really wants to, that leaves open the possibility to her of a 2016 run.

But by then, will she still even want to do the job?
Her other choice is to bank on an Obama loss in 08, and run again in 2012, but I don't think she'd be that cynical. At this point, I'd say the Republicans are in very bad shape, and McCain is not the person to save them.
They should've picked Romney.

[onenote]

40. actually taking the second spot probably reduces whatever chance she'll ever have

of getting to the WH.

Being VP only makes her the frontrunner if Obama serves out 8 years and is popular at the end of his tenure. And even then, her age -- 69 on election day 2016 -- could work against her.

If Obama's presidency doesn't go well (and I am in no way suggesting that will be the case), she's better off not having been in the number 2 position. If the first four years are problematic, she could be positioned to make a run in 2012 if she's not part of the administration. And if Obama was to lose in 2008 (again, not something I think will happen), she's better off not having been on the ticket -- John Edwards, for example, was a stronger candidate for the nomination in 2004 than in 2008 -- having been VP candidate on a losing ticket didn't help him.

[K Gardner]

30. Hillary Rosen in response to that question: "She is smart enough to understand she CANT

force her way onto the ticket."

[cloudythescribbler]

12. Here's an in-depth analysis of this specific issue from RealClearPolitics

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/if_clinton_wants_to_be_vp_obam.html

May 15, 2008

If Clinton Wants VP, Obama Can't Stop Her
By Bob Beckel


Does Hillary Clinton want to be the Democrats vice presidential candidate? Probably. Could she get on the ticket by dropping out before the last states vote on June 3rd? Definitely not. Does Barack Obama want her on the ticket? Absolutely not. Can he stop her if she wants it? Probably not. Why not? Super delegates are why not.

When the last pledged delegates are totaled on June 3rd, and assuming the current demographic support continues for both candidates (and baring a major development they will), Barack Obama will have around 1690 delegates and Hillary Clinton around 1550. Add in their current super delegate support and Obama will have 1980 total delegates, and Clinton 1825.

There are roughly 235 undecided or unnamed super delegates, most of whom will pick sides before or shortly after June 3rd. Given the inevitability of his nomination Obama will get the lion share of these delegates. An educated guess would be 185 for Obama, 50 for Clinton. Final count; Obama 2165; Clinton 1875. (Assume Michigan and Florida will be seated and be an even split so we can leave the magic number at the current 2026).

It's all over. Obama will have about 54% of the delegates and Clinton 46%. (I know there are a few delegates missing. Some are Edwards, a few uncommitted, and a few refusing to decide- another wash). Hillary Clinton will have come up short by 150 votes. But this isn't horseshoes. That said she still comes in a very close second, which puts her among the closest runner-ups in Democratic Party history.

So Barack Obama is free to pick a running mate? Not so fast. Her losing margin of 150 is only 19% of the super delegates at the convention. Most of the 795 super delegates have been put under enormous pressure by both candidates for months. For those that chose Obama the decision was an especially painful one both personally and politically.

Almost all super delegates have had a long history with the Clintons. Many have only personally known Barack Obama a few months. Many who sided with Obama have benefited professionally, financially, and politically from their relationship with the Clintons. Many had jobs, and good ones, in the Clinton Administration. Many have been the recipients of tens of thousands of dollars raised on their behalf by the Clintons.

Can you imagine how hard it was for most of these super delegates to turn down the former president of the United States? It was tough enough turning Hillary down, but their former boss, political godfather, and personal friend? I've talked to many of them; trust me it was for most the hardest thing they have ever had to do in their political lives.

Just consider for a moment the final phone call with Bill Clinton when the super delegate had to tell him he or she had decided to go with Obama. Clinton," It's time to make a decision. Hillary needs you and I need you. We've been through a lot together. When you needed me I was there, now we need you".

Super delegate, "Mr. President, this is the hardest thing I've ever had to do, but I'm going with Obama because (whatever). Ask me for anything else Mr. President, but I've got to do this". Clinton, "I'm very disappointed and personally hurt, but do what you think you have to do. So long."

Now imagine its June 4th and Clinton calls again. Clinton, "I know Obama has enough votes to win, but I wanted you to know Hillary has decided to run for vice president at the convention. You know there are two roll call votes at the convention: first president then for vice president. I know you are voting for Obama for president. Fine, but I want your commitment to vote for Hillary for vice president."

You imagine being on the floor in Denver. Hillary's delegates, NEARLY HALF THE DELEGATES, are demanding she be on the ticket. These are true believers who have stuck with Clinton through thick and thin. To them, putting Hillary on the ticket is a crusade.

Most Clinton delegates are women, most Democratic voters are women, and they're going to just accept some middle aged white governor that Obama is rumored to want? No way. They are in your face. Hillary supporters from back home are jamming your Blackberry. This and more horror scenes flash through your mind in a nano second.

Then it occurs to you; if the roles were reversed and Obama came close to winning and wanted to be the vice presidential candidate, could you imagine the convention saying no?

Clinton," If we get your commitment now (we've already got a bunch of Obama super delegates to support her) we don't have to take a vote or fight in Denver. With Hillary's pledged delegates and a hundred or so super delegates we'll be over 2026 before the end of June. Saves Barack the hassle of picking a running mate and we can be united against McCain on day one."

Are you going to tell the former president of the United States no again? Anyway you convince yourself it's a great ticket and will help Obama in those big swing states. "I'm with you Mr. President". Clinton," I knew I could count on you". You want to bet there aren't 20% of the super delegates who would buy this deal? We're talking super delegates here, not profiles in courage.

If Hillary Clinton wants the vice presidential nomination, and her loyal delegates demand it, and the Clinton machine puts its full weight behind it, she will be on the ticket.

Count on it.

Bob Beckel managed Walter Mondale's 1984 presidential campaign. He is a senior political analyst for the Fox News Channel and a columnist for USA Today. Beckel is the co-author with Cal Thomas of the book "Common Ground."

[DemVet]

16. That's just one of the op-eds and articles I read on the subject.

It does spell out the process rather clearly, though.

[IsItJustMe]

21. I am sorry but this article just seems like bull shit to me. It acts like many of these SD's are

somehow beholden to the Clintons for jobs they held under the Clinton administration or money they recieved because of the Clintons. This is utter non sense and fabrication in my view. In other words, who ever wrote this article is a lame brain.

[cloudythescribbler]

28. The question is COULD Hillary force herself as VP nominee -- and the article ...

makes about as strong a case as possible that the answer is yes. After all, if she wins enough delegates, she will have almost a majority supporting her for president. Then there will be other delegates who might be persuadable in one way or another. The author is not simply out there in la-la land; these issues are real.

I DO agree that the scenario put forward seems UNLIKELY, especially if Obama, the presumptive nominee as of June 4, names someone he would like as a running mate. He might feel that naming HRC is the best way to AVOID a huge fight, so we would never see the effect of the dynamics this article outlines DIRECTLY, only its indirect effect on the campaign.

That said, I personally VERY STRONGLY think that HRC should NOT be on the ticket, with all her baggage and all her negatives, which she vastly increased during the course of this campaign, in my arrogant opinion. But I DO strongly think Obama should name a woman, and importantly also a candidate who at least never supported the Iraq War Resolution, and preferably one like Barbara Boxer who specifically voted AGAINST it at the time. There are other possible women for the ticket, such as Stabenow, Napolitano, and Sebelius, who are very strong possibilities, each with their own strengths and weaknesses.

Where I DISAGREE with IsItJustMe is the contemptuous dismissal of the dynamics that the author, a political insider, outlines. I think it is VERY important that Democrats, such as myself, who do NOT want to see Hillary on the ticket, see the threat that these dynamics he outlines poses, and rally a HUGE number of voices for an alternative to Hillary. And merely rallying ANTI-Hillary doesn't sound good, while 'a woman who never supported the Iraq War Resolution' at least provides parameters with a positive direction.

FWIW that's the state of my thinking on the subject

[IsItJustMe]

29. Very thoughtful reply.

[NJmaverick]

15. True, but the VP job only has any power if the President lets it

and if Hillary forces herself on Obama, you think she would be given any?

[Danger Mouse]

23. It's not about having power, it's about strengthening her chances for a 2016 run.

If Obama manages to be a two-termer, and a good one, she'll be in a good position to succeed him.

[NJmaverick]

25. She will be nearly 70

I don't know how good her position would really be.

[Life Long Dem]

17. And the newly elected President has to take a back seat to what?

Since when does the President have a VP thrown at them whether they want it or not? Dream on.

[yourguide]

19. I think the dem party has...

quite a bit of respect for Obama. Think about it, he beat the inevitable nominee. After he earned it in a very hard fought battle, after garbage like "he's not a muslim...as far as I know...", I doubt seriously the dem party will force him to take her.

she might try it, but I doubt she'll have the necessary supporters to push this through.

[Franks Wild Years]

20. He will NOT be forced.

It would be undermining a Presidential candidate. It would be political suicide for a party which aspires to have the next President Of The United States. It basically be saying "Oh, you're our nominee but only grudgingly...!" It would allow Bomber McCain a free pass to the White House.

If Clinton was forced upon Obama, the Democratic party would fucking deserve the beating they'd receive in November.

[RichGirl]

34. Not exactly....

Every other nominee since brokered conventions had the nomination wrapped up within weeks ofIowa and with way more votes and delegates. Do a little history research and you'll see that based on previous primaries, Obama has done very badly. If he gets the nom, he'll go into it with just half the popular vote and half the delegates, when in the past the nom generally had them all.

As far as "beat the inevitable nominee"...you may recall that in 2004 Dean was the inevitable nominee. Kerry had him beat in the first primary. We are into the last of the 50 states and Obama STILL doesn't have it wrapped up. Don't go bragging up Obama without any facts.

[yourguide]

44. ym...

dean was not the inevitable nominee. he certainly did not suggest he'd have this wrapped up by super tuesday.

Not really sure how you can suggest obama is doing so badly, considering he's beating the Clinton brand.

Hillary, is that you?

[sfam]

26. If she does pressure Obama, it will be behind the scenes...it won't be...

overt. The press surrounding a Hillary forcing herself where she's not wanted would be truly horrid both for Hillary and more importantly, for the Democratic chances. Every swing voter would be voting against Obama just based out of intense hatred for Hillary.

[DemVet]

54. I agree...

...with the overt part. We won't know about it if it happens.

[RichGirl]

31. You Obama people are too much!!!

I hope that after the nom is picked you'll all take some time off and let your little brains take a rest.

What would make anyone think that Obama doesn't want Hillary as VP???? After that little rest you take you may realize that your demonization of Hillary was based on opinions and misrepresentations and wishful thinking, exaggeration, etc. At any rate, don't be surprised to know that Obama does not share your views.

[Blondiegrrl]

48. Use your brain.

Why on earth would Obama want (or like) a candidate who has repeatedly sided with the Republican presumptive nominee against him?

[Oilwellian]

52. Ah yes, I can see the GOP ads now

Showing Hillary praise McCain's experience and then cut to her saying Obama just has a speech. That would be wonderful for the Democratic ticket. :eyes:

[CakeGrrl]

57. "He's not a Muslim...as far as I know."

"Shame on you, Barack Obama. Shame on you!"

"I believe Senator McCain has crossed that (Commander in Chief) threshold. All he (Obama) has is a speech he wrote in 2002."

***********

I can't see why he would take ANY offense to any of that. Hillary's just sooo wonderful!

:eyes:

[DU GrovelBot]

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[TheDonkey]

33. The VP is chosen by the nominee. It has nothing to do with the losers in the primary

it should be whomever the nominee deems fit.

[RichGirl]

35. And what country are you referring to?

Have you ever worked in a campaign? You may be shocked to know how few decisions the candidate actually gets to make. That's why they all come off as phonies and flip floppers because they are constantly being advised.

Obama supporters seem to think that this election is all about OBAMA! IT'S NOT! It's about getting a democratic president in the white house. That is the goal and the decisions will be made by the party and not based on who Barack likes. Try to remember, it's the presidency, not a coronation. He'll be lucky if he can "deem" which suit to wear to the inauguration.

And BTW...John Kerry did not want John Edwards to be VP Edwards got the job because he was the best of the primary losers.

[Terran]

38. Please prove this:

And BTW...John Kerry did not want John Edwards to be VP Edwards got the job because he was the best of the primary losers.

And you would know this...how? And you can prove it's so? If not, well, it's just hot air.

[RichGirl]

39. I'm a political junky.

I READ EVERYTHING. If there were a political trivial pursuit, I'd be the Guinneas World Book of Records winner. But this is actually common knowledge, so I can't brag about it, as is that Edwards didn't really want to be VP and that Edwards was actually very upset that Kerry conceded the election, he wanted to fight it.

I go by knowledge and facts, not opinions, wishful thinking or "hot air".

[Terran]

41. There are lots "political junkies" at DU

I don't see too many of them agreeing with you.

I've no doubt there are plenty of factors influencing the choice of VP aside from the nominee's personal wishes; but that doesn't mean the nominee has zero control over the process. I'd like to hear exactly how you think the process went that made John Edwards the VP pick in 2004. Who was responsible? Who was involved?

[donheld]

36. If rolls were reversed

What would you say if Barack forced himself into the number 2 spot?

[Blondiegrrl]

49. I'd lose a hell of a lot of respect for him. n/t

[Lord Helmet]

37. oh BS she can't do shit. I can't believe some of you wonder why people hate her.

[ecstatic]

42. What blog are you guys getting your talking points from? You guys are like

clockwork, chiming in at the same time with the same meme. Please direct me to the source of your propaganda.

[OzarkDem]

43. What makes you think she wants it?

Who would want it in an Obama administration?

[Butch350]

46. OzarkDem

That says it all! Your Dem alright!

[Butch350]

45. Are You Kidding???

That would be like marrying your x-wife after a REALLY, REALLY BITTER DIVORCE!!

[2rth2pwr]

47. If Obama can't block Hillary from taking the VP spot against his will,

what kind of President would he be?

jeezeebus.

[cloudythescribbler]

50. If progressives mobilize, eg w/a full-page ad in the NY Times, saying NO HILLARY VP ...

then it will be easier for Obama to turn her down, even with all the clout that she can muster. I really think that, as Dick Morris, who for all his monumental sleaziness in fact is very much a savvy political insider, and occasionally says something true, Hillary would be a DRAG on the Obama nomination/candidacy. On the other hand, someone like Barbara Boxer (my favorite choice), or another woman who never supported the Iraq War Resolution (eg Stabenow, Sebelius, Murray -- I haven't been able to determine for Napolitano) would boost the ticket.

If Obama (against my political instincts at least) goes for a male running mate, there's Webb, Schweitzer, Feingold and others (even Dean) who always opposed the IWR. I do NOT like the idea of Wes Clark or a similar Clintonian/not-so-Democrat as the VP nominee. Someone who would generate a lot of enthusiasm, including in the middle of the mainstream (eg Boxer) is a much better choice.

Richardson, of the other primary candidates, could be the greatest political plus, but I'd rather see someone who, even if they have a long resume, somehow reflects the new politics more.

AT ANY RATE, I THINK PROGRESSIVES SHOULD MOBILIZE SERIOUSLY, at least w/ something like a full page ad in the NY Times (eg favoring a woman running mate NOT Hillary, perhaps even one who never supported the IWR as a criterion) this would really help

[AtomicKitten]

53. She's got nothing and should consider herself lucky if she isn't shunned by the party

which she so deserves for running like a Republican against Barack. The Clintons are finished and this kind of arrogant, delusional posturing in the OP would be laughable if it wasn't so pathetic.

[hiroyuyu2009]

55. oh

we might need her

[DesEtoiles]

59. bull. do you think we are retarded?

[book_worm]

60. Yes, if he doesn't want her. It's his VP