Over the top! This is what a *WIN* looks like!

[phrigndumass]

If his 19 pledged delegates follow Senator Edwards' endorsement of Senator Obama, that would project Obama's delegates at 2,033.

THIS IS A WIN!



Thank you, John Edwards!

[phrigndumass]

1. This is also what a win looks like:

[phrigndumass]

2. Did I mention we won this thing?

[TheDonkey]

34. HELLO DU ADMIN!? WHERE ARE YOU!???

[K Gardner]

3. K&R

[phrigndumass]

4. Senator Clinton tells Brian Williams today she doesn't believe in quitting

She is following in the footsteps of Mike Huckabee and beyond.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/24624612#24624612

[goclark]

7. Huckabee

has never spoken ill of his co candidate that I recall.

He seemed to run a fair campaign and wa graceful in stepping aside for the moment.

[phrigndumass]

8. I'll grant him that, yes

Fair and graceful in defeat. Good qualities!

:hi:

[dkf]

10. Its a sad day when Huckabee looks like a prince next to Hillary.

He makes her look really bad in comparison.

[nxylas]

12. I have a confession

I may disagree with Huckabee's politics, but I actually...LIKE the guy on a personal level :blush:

Should I seek treatment?

[madrchsod]

14. he`s a nice guy if you do`t discuss politics...

[phrigndumass]

21. Yes, he's like your favorite uncle!

sans the politics and religion. I get the feeling he'd do yardwork with me. :D

[dkf]

24. Yeah I know where you are coming from.

Thank goodness we are running against McCain and not Huckabee.

[Stop Cornyn]

27. Actually, she's more like still-running Ron Paul than finally-resigned Mike Huckabee.

[chill_wind]

5. K&R n/t

[phrigndumass]

6. ...

:kick:

[irish.lambchop]

9. I've never thanked you for all your "The Math" posts -

primarily because I was busy downing aspirin while trying to plow through them - numbers make my head hurt :) - but they put so much in perspective for me. Thank you. I think this is the 'easiest' phrigndumass post I've read :hi:

[phrigndumass]

11. Aw, thanks lambchop!

I'll admit I see things in matrix code (lol) ... When I started using the graphs, others began seeing what I was seeing. I needed perspective as well, and I'm so happy I shared it with other DUers!

If I could, I'd reimburse you for the aspirin! :D

:hi:

[mod mom]

13. phrigndumass, the strategy after the primary that will propel Sen Obama to the Whitehouse

is based on the Poblano Model. I posted a thread on it but it sank like lead. I thought you might be interested since you are so good with numbers:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5963616&mesg_id=5963616

[phrigndumass]

17. Awesome! 50 states and diversity, it's what the Democratic Party is all about!

Hell, it's what America is all about.

(I K/R'd your post and blogrolled the link to 538.com to follow along, thanks for sharing!!!)

:thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :hi:

[Apollo11]

15. Your 2025 target assumes Florida and Michigan get zero delegates

But I'm not saying that Senator Clinton can still win this thing. Not since I read this article:
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_scott_rasmussen/for_superdelegates_electability_isn_t_enough

[phrigndumass]

18. True, But even the FL & MI delegations will be split, so it's a wash

The supers (unpledged delegates) from Florida and Michigan won't be allowed a vote at all, and the pledged will be seated with half-votes. It's up to the campaigns in conjunction with a recommendation by the Rules Committee to offer to the Credentials Committee how to split the half-votes.

This is according to Rule 20.C.1.a.:

20.C.1.a. Violation of timing: In the event the Delegate Selection Plan of a state party provides or permits a meeting, caucus, convention or primary which constitutes the first determining stage in the presidential nominating process to be held prior to or after the dates for the state as provided in Rule 11 of these rules, or in the event a state holds such a meeting, caucus, convention or primary prior to or after such dates, the number of pledged delegates elected in each category allocated to the state pursuant to the Call for the National Convention shall be reduced by fifty (50%) percent, and the number of alternates shall also be reduced by fifty (50%) percent. In addition, none of the members of the Democratic National Committee and no other unpledged delegate allocated pursuant to Rule 8.A. from that state shall be permitted to vote as members of the state’s delegation. In determining the actual number of delegates or alternates by which the state’s delegation is to be reduced, any fraction below .5 shall be rounded down to the nearest whole number, and any fraction of .5 or greater shall be rounded up to the next nearest whole number.

(emphasis mine)

*****************************

Thanks for sharing the Rasmussen link! This does make sense:

But, in that scenario, the problems for Democrats would go far deeper. If Obama is denied the nomination, the collateral damage could reduce the number of House and Senate races that Democrats win this year. Why would any Superdelegate want to risk that?

So, for Senator Clinton, the challenge is not convincing Superdelegates that she’s more electable. Even if she could convince every single Superdelegate of that fact, it’s not enough. The standard now is much higher--Clinton also needs to convince Superdelegates that the party will stay unified behind her if Obama is denied the nomination. Unfortunately for Clinton at this time, that’s a question she cannot answer.

:hi:

[hogwyld]

16. A big kick and rec for you my friend

Always look forward to your posts! And a hearty thanks for all your work this primary season!:hi: You, GC, and TVOR have literally saved my sanity during this :silly: season. :yourock:

[phrigndumass]

20. Thanks hoggy! :)

This whole process is insane, isn't it? I'm very happy to do the math for everyone who wants it!

Thanks!!! :headbang:

[oldpol]

19. big winnah!

[phrigndumass]

22. Headlines! Absolutely awesome. You should start a new post with those

Everyone would love to see them!

:hi:

[workinclasszero]

28. Love those front pages, thanks!

Gee looks like Edwards endorsing Obama knocked Hillary's meaningless WV win right off the front page eh?:D

[SaveAmerica]

30. Edwards and Obama just look like they should be together, that picture in La Opinion is excellent

[Ichingcarpenter]

23. Doesn't this mean the Pelosi number is almost in play right now?

1627


Based on Public statements these are the Super Delegates who have given a strong indication that the candidate who reaches 50% of the pledged delegate should be the nominee:

1) Speaker Pelosi

2) Christin Pelosi http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/15/christine-pelo...

3) Roy Rommer http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/03/former-dnc...

4) Senator Cantwell (WA)http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

5) Donna Brazile http://i.abcnews.com/Politics/Vote2008/Story?id=4261986...

6) Rick Larsen (WA)http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results...

7) Cindy Spanyers AL http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results...


By using a democratic principle to establish a reasonable goal Speaker Pelosi has established a line in the ground that other superdelegates can go to without favoring a particular campaign. If one candidate were to reach the 'Pelosi Number' and a large block of Super Delegates were to endorse at one time it would prove a decisive and deciding moment for the nomination.

Thanks so much for your work and explanations.

[nxylas]

25. If all Edward's pledged delegates go to Obama, he only needs 9 more

Actually 8.5, but I think the Democrats Abroad delegates are the only ones that count as half, so in practice, he needs to pick up 9 on Tuesday to reach the Pelosi Number. Without the Edwards delegates, the number goes up to 27. Either way, it seems virtually impossible for him not to get that many with over 100 delegates up for grabs. Tell me, math geeks, what percentage of the vote would Clinton have to get in KY and OR for Obama not to get 27 delegates next Tuesday?

[phrigndumass]

26. Yes! Obama needs only seven more pledged delegates ...

... for the Pelosi Club supers to kick in, if Edwards' pledged delegates follow his endorsement of Obama. He'll win those easily on Tuesday! According to Mr. Super, there are way more than six or seven members of the Pelosi Club.

Thanks IC!

:hi:

[goclark]

29. Let's Get It On for the Pelosi Club

:bounce: and K

[phrigndumass]

31. I got your groove ... :)

♫ Let's Get It On! ♫

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gaYd4xEzWY

:bounce:

[goclark]

32. K for Obama How many delegates does he need now?

[DU GrovelBot]

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