Are they polling the new voters?

[genius]

If not they're probably very unprepared.

[Zynx]

1. Not that much.

New voters are always undercounted in polling.

[WI_DEM]

2. to a certain extent

for instance voters 18-21 wouldn't have voted in the last presidential election due to their ages, but it is hard to tell how many "new voters" are being counted.

[Gloria]

3. Also, it is doubtful that pollsters are taking

into consideration populaton shifts beyond just looking at the gain or loss of electoral votes.

[michigandem2]

4. that is my thinking...

all these freaking polls...aren't counting any NEW registered voters...and if people who voted for Bush in 2000 are fleeing...(ie repugs for Kerry) and the new registered voters that are going for Kerry...then I think there is going to be really a very hard election for Bush to steal...

[LaRoucheYouth4Kerry]

5. The LaRouche Youth spoke to Zogby, they are NOT!!! WE CAN WIN!

We MUST recruit these people to kick Bushes ass this election:

1.) Youth. if you haven't voted in the last 4 elections, you aren't polled. WE are hitting ALL the youth in the swing states to vote, so we can win the swing states for Kerry.

2.) Poor people, they don't vote usually, so we can mobilize them

3.) Minorities in the south such as Black and Latino voters. Since they don't vote, they aren't counted either.

If we mobilize these groups in the 22 swing states, Kerry has won the election, even if Bush and Cheney dare to do some Diebold fraud.

[michigandem2]

6. I think the youth vote is HIGHLY important...

I remember the year I turned 18 was when Clinton was running...He did appeal to me..I knew nothing about politics until he came around really....I paid attention...he went on MTV and he went on Aresenio Hall...I want Kerry/Edwards to really seek those younger people OUT....get them excited...

so many young people rely on their parents to help them decide OR to not vote at all...because its not that big of a deal..but i was SO excited to vote in 1992...

I am doing my work where I can trying to get people to see what kind of country we have...and so far I got a couple people listening to me

[beyurslf]

10. The last 4 years or last 4 elections?

I am almost 30 and have only voted in 2 (96 and 00) presidential elections--and I reigistered when I turned 18.

[genius]

11. This gives me some hope.

Especially in light of the concert tour designed to get younger voters to support Kerry. I'm expecting Bush to steal but I've been hoping he won't be prepared enough.

[NoBorders]

7. not in 'likely voters'

that's my guess. Often when they report polls they are talking about 'likely voters' which is usually established by past voting habits, which would exlude people who have not voted before.

[DaveinMD]

8. the criteria for likely voters

is someone who plans to vote and has voted in the past. An 18 year old, who plans to vote could very well be in that category. However, the biggest problem is with their vote modeling. They base this modeling off previous elections. If their is a higher turnout among a certain group, it can throw their polling off. This happened in 92 when young people turned out in larger numbers. In 2000, many more African Americans turned out than most polls anticipated.

[I Lean Left]

12. In 2000...

"In 2000, many more African Americans turned out than most polls anticipated."

Now if only they had their votes counted!

[sangh0]

9. Yes, they poll new voters

They poll EVERYONE who is eligible to vote. However, they don't break out the numbers for new voters, and I believe that they are not considered to be "likely voters" so they probably are not counted in any poll of "likely voters"

[GmoneyOwnsAll]

13. MTV has promoted Kerry

While I dont watch TV anymore. My friend told me that MTV is promoted Kerry a lot. I saw the Rock the Vote show from johnkerry.com that aired on MTV. Kerry said he liked RAP. That should get him some votes. We also have groups like www.punkvoter.com out there registering young ones to vote, and now the Vote for Change tour. So I think we're going to see a huge turnout of young voters, like in 92'. I think we're going to see a huge turnout of voters of people who have never voted before. My parents are registered for the first time in their lives. I dont think the polls contact these people. They always contact the "likely voters". The people who have always voted, or have voted at least once. People are scared, the 18-25 year olds are afraid of the draft, so they're registering. The same kids parents are afraid of their kids getting drafted. So they're registering. Watch, states that you think Kerry will lose. Will turn blue right after Nov. 2nd. Just keep that in mind, it's a little encouraging. And if Kerry loses, just keep in mind that we're all in this together.