A big win tonight for HRC in WV may fundamentally alter the dynamics of this race

[Tropics_Dude83]

Just read an article on Politico.com located here that has led me to draw the above OP conclusion.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10300.html

The media seems willing to accept HRC's claim that Senator Obama's nomination is not inevitable if she wins huge in WV tonight.

Why?:

From the article:

It could, however, give Clinton’s sputtering campaign one last chance to alter — or at least mute — the prevailing narrative that Obama’s nomination is inevitable.

And, perhaps more important, a massive margin of victory could bolster Clinton’s central argument to the superdelegates who will ultimately decide the nomination. Her campaign contends that Obama has serious problems with the blue-collar and elderly whites who dominate West Virginia’s voter rolls — and who Team Clinton asserts will be key in a number of states if Democrats are to defeat presumptive Republican nominee John McCain.


) The Edwards protest vote. John Edwards, the former North Carolina senator who ended his Democratic presidential campaign in January, remains on the ballot in West Virginia. And he polled at 4 percent in the Suffolk poll, popular primarily with men and independents.

If Edwards gets that much of the vote or more, it could add to the night’s woes for Obama and presage problems for him in a general election matchup with McCain, particularly in rural states such as West Virginia.

Clinton told several hundred supporters gathered Sunday at a middle school gym in Eleanor, W.Va., that “the eyes of the country and the world will be on West Virginia on Tuesday,” because “there is no other state that everybody is going to be waiting to see.”

I think a 70-30 Obama loss in West Virginia will:
1. Give great pause to the superdelegates until at least Oregon. The flood to him will stop cold. Won't pick up again until and unless he wins Oregon big.
2. Huge turnout and big popular vote margin gives HRC ammuntion to head to the convention saying she should be the nominee because she's won the popular vote.
3. Huge WV win gives her ammuntion to seat Florida and Michigan as is come May 31, making the race tight as can be.
4. All night coverage will give Hillary a big bounce in the tracking polls.
5. One last chance for Hillary to convince superdelegates to override the pledged delegates.

Tonight is going to be a VERY good night for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and the race will look very different indeed tonight than it does right now and the narrative/momentum will once again be on her side.

Senator Obama will quickly need to counterpunch and do something big to counter this or else we may be heading into the convention with Hillary with her "last minute" momentum having a great shot at the nomination.

I wasn't sure but reading the article on politico gives me reason to believe that the media is going to make this West Virginia race critically important.

The game is still afoot!

[book_worm]

1. All the SD's know he is going to lose WVA by a large margin

Yet they came out in droves this week. My guess is that Obama will have several more to announce tomorrow because they know they are going to lose big and will try and blunt the news with more SD announcements.

[Texas Hill Country]

37. how big is the question, if she wins by 10 or 20, not so much, by 40-50, big change

[OzarkDem]

2. W Va voters are concerned about jobs

also health care reform and overall economic issues, areas Obama is not strong in.

[GarbagemanLB]

7. They are also concerned about tone

of the candidates skin.

[WeDidIt]

12. I disagree

Nobody has presented even a shred of evidence to suggest teh West Virginia voters are more racists than voters in any other state, and as an Obama supporter I am apalled at anybody who would try and suggest such a thing.

[Butch350]

36. 12. I disagree

Is appalled anything like wearing rose colored glasses. (colored)

[thunder rising]

10. And too stupid to read about candidates.

[Cant trust em]

14. Is there a reason that health care is higher on the priority list in WV than other states? NT

[Avalux]

3. Isn't going to matter much. Sorry.

I know you are clinging to any indication Hillary might still have a chance; I'd probably be doing the same thing if the situation were reversed. A big win in WV has been expected for quite some and it hasn't slowed down the superdelegate drip to Obama.

[Tropics_Dude83]

9. Actually I support Obama now

But reading the article on Politico is not encouraging for those of us who believe this thing needs to end.

I'm just trying to look at this objectively and when the media writes drivel like politco.com just wrote, it gives me pause to think she still has a shot.

[Zachstar]

15. Please go back

[Tropics_Dude83]

17. So we dispute Politco's assertion that this is going to alter the race then?-n/t

[SurfingAtWork]

34. No, it isn't going to alter the race (in the slightest)

A blowout in WV/KY have been projected since the race started, the supers know that. Game changers only occur when something very unexpected happens. Had Clinton won NC THAT would have been a potential game changer. Please note that WV has 28 delegates total up for grabs, there isn't going to be any sort of shift.

Thanks for your concern though.

[Avalux]

19. The only way this will end is when Obama reaches that magic number.

And the current hum is that it will happen by May 20th. I actually don't mind Hillary staying in because it gives everyone in the remaining states a chance to vote which will serve us well in the GE.

[cali]

24. bwahahaha.

sure you do. And there are dozens of articles that say that it's essentially over. YOU dig for anything that gives you hope for Hill.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

4. Yeah, yeah.

Jesus, who buys this shit?

[Cali_Democrat]

5. As West Virginia goes, so goes the nation?

God help us all if that's true.

[WeDidIt]

6. It could be 85-15 and it would change nothing

It's too little, too late.

[Nitrogenica]

8. I highly doubt that, sorry.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

11. Nice try, but no

[Tropics_Dude83]

16. I'm not trying anything

Again, I support Obama now but this is going to be a very good night for HRC and give her ammunition for her popular vote argument.

We can't just dig our heads in the sands like Ostriches. Obama needs to win Oregon by 10-20 points now or else this is going to be a convention dogfight.

[Joe the Revelator]

20. This does nothing for her pop vote totals...WV only has 600k registered democrats

Of those MAYBE 200k will show up to vote. She can take 100% of the vote and it won't dent Obama's lead.

Once again, if the supers were worried about Obama losing a state that EVERYONE knows he's going to lose, they would have no come out for him in such large numbers over the last 2 weeks.

[Zachstar]

13. WV is going to change nothing.

The most it could do is divert the pundits for a few days. But it will be but a week before she gets a big defeat in Oregon and with it likely removing any chance of her regaining the lead before the convention.

[Joe the Revelator]

18. You have the political instincts of a retarded dingo

Seriously, the supers are not going to "have great pause" when Obama loses a state that EVERYONE knows he's going to lose big. Its an expectations game, and the expectations are set with Clinton recieving 80% of the vote. If the supers were worried about that, they wouldn't be coming out 5 a day.

Secondly, WV only has 600k registered democrats. Of those, MAYBE 200k will show up to vote today. If she takes even 100% of those, it won't alter the popular vote totals.

[Tropics_Dude83]

Well I just look at like this

That this is a lady who will have to be dragged off the stage and with all of the powerful people in the media and in politics who support her even a win that shouldn't be critical might be made critical.

[Joe the Revelator]

22. So you've gone from saying that the supers are going to abandon Obama, to the media is going to prop

up Hillary. Which is it? Not even Dan Abrams can change the rules of math.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

21. From meaningless victory to irrelevant victory.

[cali]

23. won't change a thing, sorry.

SDs will continue to endorse Obama at the same rate. He's now up by 20 pts on Clinton in Oregon. WV results will have zero impact on the MI and FL business. It may give Clinton in bounce in the national tracking polls but it won't be a large one. Enough SDs are already on board to put Obama over the top.

Now why don't you go back to supporting Clinton. It's a better fit for you.

[MadBadger]

25. And by great pause do you mean Obama wins SDs tomorrow 12-1?

[Occam Bandage]

26. Pretty darn sure the supers are aware he'd lose KY/WV.

[Egnever]

27. it WILL change the narrative

The media wants this thing to continue. Any excuse will work. They are praying for a floor fight. If they weren't they wouldn't even let this popular vote meme survive. they would call it out for the garbage it is as it doesn't really account for the caucus states votes.

It wont change the fact that, its still over. It will allow Clinton to continue to try to fool her supporters into thinking its still feasible for her to win though.

[jenmito]

28. 4 SDs endorsed him today. If WV's outcome meant anything, he would've campaigned there and

closed the gap like he has in every OTHER state.

[jenmito]

29. The teaser for KO's show tonight says Hillary's win won't change anything so what does she want...

KO will put it in perspective.

[woolldog]

30. As usual, you're wrong on every point.

[Arugula Latte]

31. Then you'll throw your support back to Hillary, right?

:rofl:

[jenmito]

32. That's what I'M waiting to see!

:rofl:

[Tropics_Dude83]

33. No switching support back to HRC

but you're a fool if you think that the coverage isn't going to be extremely negative for Obama for the next few days.

He'll just have to find a way to get through it.

[AtomicKitten]

35. Well he's about 20 pts up in Oregon. Why can't she win THAT white vote?

Stick a fork in that avenue of attack because the only point to be made is that some ignorant racist haters will vote against Barack regardless, and whichever party they claim to affiliate themselves with is beside the point. It is that particular segment of the population the Democrats can do without, literally and figuratively.