How Hillary Might Still Win It

[Austinitis]

So they're talking on TV about how West Virginia might have 500,000 people turn out to vote today (for example 76,000 people voted early). They're also talking about how Clinton might win by as much as 40%. If she does that, and has a moderately good day in Kentucky next week, she could pull ahead in the popular vote.

See http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/05/not_quite_yet_1.html">this (fascinating) article (from HorseRaceBlog) for a description of how this might play out. See http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/chooseyourown.html">this spreadsheet to calculate today's impact on the popular vote (if you set turnout high enough to get 500,000 votes Hillary takes the lead on the popular vote w/Florida).

I mean, just look at this map. The blue areas are places Hillary dominated, and WV is right in the middle of that:



And that fact that Obama hasn't really gotten that flood of super-delegates means that count MI and FL, plus pushing on super-delegates, could pull this off for us.

So if you're a Hillary supporter, https://contribute.hillaryclinton.com/form.html?sc=3">click here to keep her going through June.

[GarbagemanLB]

1. The popular vote is a useless metric in a system that has caucuses. Also, the 'flood of SDs' has

begun. Obama has gotten something like 25 SDs to Hillary's ONE since last week alone.

Do you want to know why they didn't ALL just announce at once? Hillary supporters like you would be screaming to high heaven that the 'elites' were pushing Hillary out of the race. It is about unifying the party behind Obama at this point.

[enid602]

35. circular

Well, thank goodness the SD's won't dare (as Team Obama has told us so many times) overturn the popular vote, despite it's being a useless metric. The circular reasoning here never ends.

[GarbagemanLB]

38. So you want to disenfranchise the caucus states? How democratic of you!

There are pledged delegates for a reason.

[bvar22]

83. Please provide a link to:

"the SD's won't dare (as Team Obama has told us so many times) overturn the popular vote,"
You are absoluely WRONG!

The Obama Team, senior Democrats, and experts say that the SDs won't overturn the Pledged Delegates.

[dchill]

86. You're right! They won't dare.

The popular vote "metric" is as false a meme now as it ever was. There are NO verified popular vote counts from states with caucuses. It's not what they count. When the rule-changers get that through their heads, will they move on? Probably not. Does that matter? No.

And I have no idea what you mean by "The circular reasoning here..." And I don't particularly care. Neither does anyone else.

[papau]

69. Democratic party prefers non-democratic causcus to popular vote?

[GarbagemanLB]

70. So...screw the millions who voted in caucuses?

[Austinitis]

78. No, count them in the popular vote. n/t

[GarbagemanLB]

81. ...and for those states that don't release vote totals from their caucuses?

[Austinitis]

82. We have estimates

[Straight Shooter]

98. They do now.

Ain't democracy grand? :eyes:

[RiverStone]

73. Why won't the MSM repeat your talking point?!

YES - how do you factor in the popular vote in caucus states? You can't. My state went 68%-32% for Obama, and if we held a popular vote he would have netted many thousands more votes.

Look how many SD's have gone for Obama vs Hillary since Super Tuesday and it looks like a flood from here.

[ingac70]

2. There are other races later that will offset any gain she makes in popular vote. n/t

West Virginia and Kentucky are not the end of it.

[Austinitis]

3. No there aren't; look at the spreadsheet. n/t

[mohc]

23. And that spreadsheet is very aggressive for Clinton

40, 30, and 25% wins for Clinton in WV, KY, and PR respectively.
5.5, 10, and 10% wins for Obama in OR, MT, and SD respectively.

A recent poll had Obama up 20% in OR, and it really would not be a big surprise if he were to win by more than that. 10% is also on the low end for MT and SD. Not taking PR into account, the popular vote is basically going to be a wash in the other 5 states, and no one really knows what will happen in PR.

[Austinitis]

29. It is, but the claim here

is that Hillary can win it; not that she will. She needs to do consistently well to pull it off, but that's still significant.

[mohc]

41. If by can you mean

"theoretically possible", then yes of course its theoretically possible for her to win. To put in poker terms, she is not drawing dead yet, but she needs perfect runner-runner. At this point she has about as much of a possibility of winning the nomination by Obama being kidnapped by aliens as she does from winning more pledge delegates and/or the popular vote, I mean hey they are both "theoretically possible". The great and overwhelming likelihood is that Obama will lead by more than 160 pledged delegates, more than 500,000 popular votes, and will continue to take over 90% of the remaining superdelegates.

[graycem]

65. There was this

disturbing flash of light last night in New Mexico... and they're saying it is a meteorite. Hmmm...I hope they kidnap McCain instead.

[Connie_Corleone]

4. Democrats pick their nominee by DELEGATES, not by popular vote.

They can't do it by popular vote because states that have caucuses don't have their popular votes counted.

IT'S OVER.

[OhioBlue]

5. Hill's race ended last week.

she just hasn't come to terms. The party is moving on to the General.

[AllentownJake]

6. I agree

Hillary should be President of Appalachia

[Austinitis]

8. And Obama can be president of Utah!

Because he sure isn't going to make it through the GE to be president of America...

[AllentownJake]

9. He's got 31 states

Suck on that

[Austinitis]

26. So why is the popular vote irrelevant while the number of states won suddenly is?

You can't have it both ways.

[AllentownJake]

42. I never said states matter

You said Obama could be President of Utah.

I think he would pick Hawaii personally....at least that's where I would pick.

[julialnyc]

99. If we actually counted the popular vote from all states it would have more meaning

But seeing that we don't count it from the caucus states it's not really a fair metric (it excludes a lot more than Florida and Michigan)

[Thrill]

He has just as good a chance as Hillary

[Austinitis]

28. See the maps

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May13.html

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May13.html

Obama can't rely on the Great-lakes states...

[Thrill]

31. Call me when the campaign starts. That doesn't mean shit right now. Kerry was up 12 points

across the country, this time in 04

[Austinitis]

33. I don't think that bodes well for us in Nov, then.

If he lost with a 12 elector lead, how is Obama going to recover from a 100 elector deficit?

[Thrill]

37. Again the Campaign hasn't even started

against McCain. He's had a free ride for over 4 months. Not one negative ad. He's not going to run that strong over the country.

[thevoiceofreason]

7. The dam has been leaking super-d's for a while

We realize Hillary may not know that because she's gotten so few. But even if the dam were to burst for her now, it's too late. Bad bad Austinitis

[GoneOffShore]

50. Is that anything like Diverticulitis?

I've got that and it's painful.

[datopbanana]

10. 100,000,000th TIME: Popular vote means nothing in a primary.

[DemVet]

34. No, not until the remaining SD's need a gauge of whom to vote for

Also, the "committed" SD's can always change their minds and their votes when they vote at the convention in August.

edit...typo

[msallied]

67. And why would they change their minds?

And the popular vote isn't even a decent gauge. A decent gauge is pledged delegates won, states won, and who ran the better campaign (i.e. the person who didn't go millions in debt after being the presumed front-runner).

[datopbanana]

95. To HRC people a good gauge is any gauge that puts HRC ahead no matter how irrelevant it is.

[PoliticalAmazon]

11. Unless Hillary cheats, the only way she can win is if Godzilla steps on Obama. ...

I'm sorry, but it's the truth.

I totally support Hillary supporters in their process of working through this disappointment, but continuing to say she could win is inaccurate and illogical.

[PoliticalAmazon]

21. George Will on How Hillary Could Win....

This was published in the Sunday LATimes:

"After Tuesday's split decisions in Indiana and North Carolina, Clinton, the Yankee Clipperette, can, and hence eventually will, creatively argue that she is really ahead of Barack Obama, or at any rate she is sort of tied, mathematically or morally or something, in popular votes, or delegates, or some combination of the two, as determined by Fermat's Last Theorem, or something, in states whose names begin with vowels, or maybe consonants, or perhaps some mixture of the two as determined by listening to a recording of the Beach Boys' 'Help Me, Rhonda' played backward, or whatever other formula is most helpful to her, and counting the votes she received in Michigan, where hers was the only contending name on the ballot (her chief rivals, quaintly obeying their party's rules, boycotted the state, which had violated the party's rules for scheduling primaries), and counting the votes she received in Florida, which, like Michigan, was a scofflaw and where no one campaigned, and dividing Obama's delegate advantage in caucus states by pi multiplied by the square root of Yankee Stadium's ZIP Code."

[martymar64]

101. For a tool, George Will does have a way with words.

Even though I disagree with him on a vast array of issues, he at least is interesting to listen to.

[hendo]

102. hillarious n/t

[WeDidIt]

12. If that's all she's got, then EXCELLENT

because the popular vote is a meaningless metric due to teh fact that you count votes of people who cannot vote in the general election (i.e. Puerto Rico, American Samoa, etc.) and leave out votes of people who can (i.e. Maine, Washington, Iowa, and Nevada).

If that's all she's got, it's a done deal. Obama wins.

[2rth2pwr]

13. Many SuperD's are waitng for that to happen, they will choose Hillary

but it will be easier when the popular vote gives them cover.

[Name removed]

19. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[cali]

93. Obama already has the SDs he needs to put him over 2024

And it's clear that SDs don't want Hill.

[Vinca]

14. I've never seen so many people out of touch with reality in one place . . .

except for a period in the 70's when I worked at a psychiatric hospital. Where's Nurse Ratched with the medication cart?

[sasquatch]

16. What was that like?

[Vinca]

27. It made me realize the bona fide crazy people aren't locked up. nt

[AllentownJake]

18. Lets not disparage the Mentally Ill

They are saner than this nonsense.

[ProSense]

15. First of all, this is a delegate battle. Secondly, those numbers are wrong.

Even with super turnout, she can't win.

[truedelphi]

55. But you are trying to convince someone by

Being for sense - and the OP writer lacks it!

Not to mention that Obama will do well in MT and OR.

[Thrill]

17. SO what is Obama not going to get any votes? Remember his votes are going to continue

to grow as well. There is no catching him

[CakeGrrl]

20. She ONLY makes a popular vote argument by fudging the numbers in her favor

She can only bypass Obama in the PV count through a combination of 1) Including MI as-is with NO Obama votes (fat f'in chance) and 2) EXCLUDING caucus states.

In other words, there's no way she can "win" the popular vote without excluding votes for Obama. FAIL.

[Austinitis]

32. She can get it without either of those.

See the spreadsheet.

[WeDidIt]

43. She HAS to exclude four caucus states

because Maine, Iowa, Washington, and Nevada NEVER ANNOUNCE THE POPULAR VOTE RESULTS!

[NewHampshireDem]

22. In a state with 1.2 million registered voters? Really?

Really, really?

To get 500,000 out of that require some amazing stunts.

Forget the spreadsheet, pass whatever you've been smokin'. 'cause to bogart shit that good ought to be a crime.

[Austinitis]

30. That's the projection on MSNBC... n/t

[NewHampshireDem]

36. Link or it didn't happen ... we don't get MSNBC here where I am n/t

[Austinitis]

45. It's not my job to do your research for you.

You obviously have the internet where you are.

[NewHampshireDem]

51. Yup and I can use teh google ... and I did and found *nothing* on MSNBC saying HRC will get 1/2 mil

It is your job to support your bogus claim ... which neither of the links you provide support.

[Austinitis]

54. EAT IT - links

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/13/turnout-seems-high-in-w-va/">(1) Turnout could be as high as 50 or 60 percent of registered voters

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7010934299">(2) WV has 1.1 million registered voters.

Together those entail that turnout could be as high as 660,000 votes.

How do you like them apples?

[NewHampshireDem]

62. I like them just fine, thank you ...

So, again, you expect that out of 660,000 total votes, 76% will be cast for HRC?

[Austinitis]

63. That's not unreasonable given recent polls

That have her more than 40% ahead...

[NewHampshireDem]

71. You are overlooking the obvious, obvious flaw here ...

There are 1.1 million registered voters in WV ... not registered Democrats, registered voters.

And you expect 60% to turn out to cast a ballot for a Democrat ...

And 75% of those that turn out to cast a ballot for HRC ...

Well, if she hits 500,000 (which, as I pointed out above, is more than 150% of Kerry's 2004 total vote), then I saw 'good on ya', Hillary' because clearly she motivated her Republican base to come out for her.

But, sorry, it ain't gonna happen.

[dmr]

58. It's the general practice for those making a point to provide the proof

"It's not my job ..." is not only wrong in this case, it's insulting.

[Austinitis]

60. I found the links because he couldn't

And I still say it's not my job to provide competence with Google to the people who disagree with me...

[NewHampshireDem]

64. In all fairness, you cited MSNBC in your original post, but provided no link to MSNBC

You must have some of those rocket-powered goal posts.

[Austinitis]

74. MSNBC doesn't put everything they say on TV on their website

I don't see why I need to source it there...

[Q3JR4]

88. Not only is it insulting

but it's also intellectually dishonest.

While it is my duty in a reasoned debate to do my own fact checking it is also my duty to cite my own sources so that spectators can see that I'm not pulling something out of my ass that arbitrarily helps my side of the argument.

Q3JR4.

[Austinitis]

89. Do you have a source for that?

Because I'm not going to buy that I have the obligations you're talking about until you find one...


And make sure it's a credible one...

And make sure to provide a source for the claim that your source is credible...

And for the claim that your source for your source is credible...

And so on...

[WilliamPitt]

24. Wow.

:popcorn: :rofl:

[Hawkeye-X]

76. Share the popcorn, don't bogart it, dude.

:popcorn:

[bobbert]

25. I was expecting to see something like this

How Hillary can win:



or

[NewHampshireDem]

39. Some perspective, which is clearly lacking here ...

In 2004, Kerry got a whopping 326,541 votes in WV, and Bush got 423,778.

But Hillary will get 500,000, uh, 'Democrats' to vote for her. :eyes:

[Austinitis]

49. 132% of Kerry's vote from 2004 turned out in Indiana

So it's not unrealistic that a lot of people might show up to WV's open primary.

[NewHampshireDem]

56. To achieve 500,000 Hillary would need 153% of Kerry's vote total

All by herself ... so 153% percent would have to vote HRC--not Democrat, but HRC.

I stand by my request for you to share what you are smoking.

[Austinitis]

59. I'm saying Hillary could pick up 200,000

not 500,000. 500,000 turning out would make that easy for her.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

40. "keep it going" Hmm. Who is it that devised a chaotic strategy similar to that? Hmm....

[indimuse]

44. K&R

Thanks for the post. Facts are stubborn...aren't they..

[barack the house]

46. It is a delegate race. As in any race you can't change the rules to win...

It's a delegate race because small states would be over looked if not apportion delegates. Playing naive won't wash too we are well aware everyone involved is smart enough to know this.

[Clear Blue Sky]

47. Popular vote isn't the deciding factor.

If it was, we would have President Gore now...

[Erin Elizabeth]

48. Clinton can win!

And I am going to be an astronaut and Queen Elizabeth I:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=5887496

[Truth2Tell]

52. Maybe when...

[CakeGrrl]

53. Once again, she *CANNOT* win the primary without having 2025 DELEGATES

The only way she can do this is to twist and turn the popular vote numbers in such a way as to get Superdelegates to change their minds and support her.

The only thing that wins the nomination is having enough Delegates (Pledged and Super) to reach 2025.

Saying she has more popular votes can never be proven and it's only another tactic to sway the SDs.

SDs are breaking toward Obama as we speak. They aren't waiting for WV or KY or PR to vote. That should tell you something right there.

[Cali_Democrat]

57. You got heart kid (nt)

[Undercurrent]

61. According to Clinton math

my state doesn't count, because we pick our delegates by caucus?

My state (WA) went for Obama.
We broke no rules.
You're suggesting we should be tossed overboard.

ROFLOL That's just plain silly.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

66. Possible does not = plausible

Otherwise I'd be spending all that money I'm gonna win in the lottery.

[apocalypsehow]

68. She's not going to win - in fact, she's already lost. Get over it. n/t.

[Voltaire]

72. SIGH....for the MILLIONTH TIME

The name of the game in primaries is DELEGATE COUNT NOT POPULAR VOTES. Means nothing. Sorry to burst your bubble. Nothing to see here. DELEGATES. GodDAMN it!!!!

[Egnever]

75. How pigs can fly! See map...

[lojasmo]

77. 20SD's in two weeks =flood.

Counting on WV and KY being in a swath of the ONLY counties won by clinton by a large margin is a crap argument.


You fail. You fail. You fail.

[gimberly]

79. Hillary needs to roll 4 strikes in the 10th frame to win

[Austinitis]

87. I don't think it's quite that hard

More like 3 runs in the 9th inning.

[Occam Bandage]

80. Hee hee.

:hi:

[SeaLyons]

84. K&R for Hillary

Thanks for posting!!

Go Hillary!!

[Q3JR4]

85. The top 4 ways hillary wins this election.

4.) She could find a genie in a bottle and make a wish for the nomination, or for freaky new superdelegate controlling powers, or for 15 new states that only she can win and that will only appear to help her and then vanish before the run against mccain (that is of course unless she needs them to win):


3.) She could use a magic wand and make it happen for herself without the genie:


2.) There could be a math error in her favor:


1.) And the number one way Hillary could win the election to secure the Democratic nomination to run against mccain for the presidency this year is:
She could master the math with magic!

[cali]

90. Oh, but he has gotten that flood of SDs. 26 in the last week.

Hill is done even if she beats Obama by 80 pts tonight.

[Austinitis]

91. If it's 90 to 10 against Obama tonight it's over for him. n/t

[cali]

92. OK. That'll happen. LOL.

[Austinitis]

94. I'm not saying that it will - just that their are outcomes tonight that could alter the course of

the nomination.

[jesus_of_suburbia]

96. Hillary is NOT GOING TO WIN THIS ELECTION. GET OVER IT!

And I would have loved for her to win.. but it is not going to happen.


Go Obama!

[AtomicKitten]

97. All she needs to do is trade the cow for the magic beans, and she's good to go.

[julialnyc]

100. POPULAR VOTE DOESN'T COUNT CAUCUS STATES!!!!!!!!!!!!

You are excluding many more states that didn't break any rules if you need to count Florida and Michigan and not count the many caucus states.......... and Clinton would barely eek by that way. The Super Delegates are well aware of this too.