Has anybody noticed that all recent polls have Kerry 2 pts ahead of *?

[MoonRiver]

I've seen a real pattern here. Is it because 2 pts make a * theft, via bbv and other shenanigans, look reasonable, while a higher, and more representative difference, would seem questionable?

[David Dunham]

1. NBC/Wall Street Journal has Bush 44%, k40%; Seems like Bull*

[MoonRiver]

2. WSJ is an avowed rightwing pundit.

No surprise that their readership would support *. Haven't you seen the recent mainstream polls?

Oh, and please supply a link when you site sources.

[papau]

3. www.msnbc.com is the link - real poll - but results are not in line

According to the poll, the Bush-Cheney ticket gets the support from 47 percent of registered voters, Kerry-Edwards gets 45 percent, and independent candidate Ralph Nader and his running mate Peter Camejo get 2 percent. In the last NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, which was released on June 30, Bush was at 45 percent, Kerry was at 44 percent, and Nader was at 4 percent.

July 19 to July 21 of 813 registered voters, and which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points

But Hart/Teeter had a Bush win by 44 to 47 in 2000 - like many other "polls"

Final Pre-election Poll Estimates of the Outcome of the 2000 Presidential Election Gore
Democrat Bush
Republican Nader
Green Buchanan
Reform Other Undecided Total Gore Lead
Election Outcome**** 48.6 48.3 2.7 0.4 0 0 100 0.3
ABC** 45 48 3 1 0 3 100 B
CBS 45 44 4 1 0 6 100 G
CBS/NYT 42 47 5 1 0 5 100 B
CNN/USA Today (Gallup)*** 46 48 4 1
1 0 100 B
Fox (Opinion Dynamics) 43 43 3 1 0 10 100 Tie
Harris (internet) 47 47 4 0 2 0 100 Tie

Harris (phone)* 47 47 5 0 1 0 100 Tie
Hotline [phone] B
ICR 44 46 7 2 0 1 100 B
Marist College 44 49 2 1 0 4 100 B
NBC/WSJ (Hart/Teeter) 44 47 3 2 0 4 100 B
Newsweek 43 45 5 0 0 7 100 B

Pew 47 49 4 0 0 0 100 B
Rasmussen 41.4 46.9 3.9 1 1 5.6
99.8 B
Reuters/MSNBC (Zogby) 48 46 5 0.5 0.6 0 100.1 G

Voter.com (Lake/Goeas)* 45 50 3.5 0 1.5 0 100 B
Washington Post 45 48 3 1 0 3 100 B


*Harris (phone) and Voter.com "Other" include Buchanan.

**Original percentages and report in PollingReport.com added to 99%, due to rounding. An additional 1% was added to "Undecided."

***An additional 1% was added to "Other." This modification was based on a conversation with David Moore on 12/6/00.

****soucre: cnn.com




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Table 2: Two Assessments of Accuracy in Final 2000 Pre-election Polls after Allocation of Undecided Voters
3 Candidate Race Revised Candidate Totals
Gore Bush Nader
Percentage Average Absolute Candidate Deviation Rank Difference in the Differences Rank
ABC 46.9 50.1 3 100 1.2 5 -3.4 11
CBS 48.5 47.5 4 100 0.7 2 0.8 4
CBS/NYT 44.8 50.2 5 100 2.6 6 -5.6 15
CNN/USA Today (Gallup) 47 49 4 100 1.2 5 -2.3 7
Fox (Opinion Dynamics) 48.5 48.5 3 100 0.2 1 -0.3 1
Harris (internet) 48 48 4 100 0.7 2 -0.3 1
Harris (phone) 47.5 47.5 5 100 1.4 10 -0.3 1
Hotline 44.1 51.9 4 100 3.1 18 -8.0 18
IBD/CSM/TIPP 47.2 49.1 3.7 100 1.1 4 -2.2 6
ICR 45.5 47.5 7 100 2.7 17 -2.4 9
Marist College 46.4 51.6 2 100 2.1 12 -5.6 15
NBC/WSJ (Hart/Teeter) 46.9 50.1 3 100 1.3 9 -3.5 13
Newsweek 46.4 48.6 5 100 1.6 12 -2.5 10
Pew 47 49 4 100 1.2 5 -2.3 7
Rasmussen 45.0 50.9 3.9 99.8 2.5 15 -3.6 17
Reuters/MSNBC Zogby)
48.6 46.5 5 100.1 1.4 10 1.7 5
Voter.com (Lake/Goeas) 45.7 50.8 3.5 100 2.1 13 -5.4 14
Washington Post 46.9 50.1 3 100 1.2 5 -3.4 11
Average for all Poles 1.6 -2.9

[mhollis]

4. In other words...

The numbers are not changing.

Present poll:

Bush-Cheny.....Kerry-Edwards.....Spoiler-Unknown
50 - 44% ............ 48 - 42% ............. 5 - 0%

June 30 Poll, which I know had a larger margin for error:

Bush-Cheny..... Kerry-Edwards......Spoiler-Unknown
50 - 40% ............. 49 - 39% ..........Question not asked

The right conclusion is that there is no significant statistical difference between the two polls. They both show Kerry-Edwards minutely behind Bush-Cheny, but within the margin for error.

[RummyTheDummy]

5. Ummmm

It's July.