My Prediction: Obama wins BOTH Indiana and North Carolina (Bookmark it)

[zulchzulu]

Based on some information from someone in Indiana, this is my prediction:

Indiana
Obama 49%
Clinton 47%

North Carolina
Obama 56%
Clinton 43%

Look for Hillary Clinton to be in New York by mid-afternoon. It's over.

[babylonsister]

1. From your lips! nt

[DesertFlower]

4. i was just gonna say that,

you beat me to it.

:hi:

[roguevalley]

48. truly. please, please, God.

[JoFerret]

69. to the voters saying

no way

[Va Lefty]

2. God, I hope your right

This primary season reminds me of "Groundhog Day" It just keeps going on and on and on.

[LSparkle]

7. "They say we're young and we don't know ... "

Love the movie but HATE THIS PRIMARY!

[Va Lefty]

10. Yeah, the movie was funny. This, not so much.

[chill_wind]

22. Perfect analogy! n/t

[BlueIdaho]

3. Interesting... based on?

Thanks!

[zulchzulu]

12. Internal polling in both Clinton and Obama camps show Obama GOTV very strong

I just talked with someone who has been in Indiana for a month and has very good info on internals.

I sure hope she/he is right.

:hi:

[Secret_Society]

19. I saw someone on MSNBC today say...

that Clinton's internals for Indiana were strong. She noted the they showed her leading in NW Indiana where Obama is supposed to do well. I guess we'll have to see who's sources are better.

[MadBadger]

25. Well then Evan Bayh also would have been more than "Cautiously Optimistic"

[Secret_Society]

34. Not necessarily

Setting low expectations so the win looks bigger.

[Cosmocat]

39. His GOTV ...

was better than hers in Pa, and it might only have kept it from being 10 points ...

If they hadn't blown the SF thing into him hating rural people, he probably would have gotten to the five point loss range here ... I think he had a SHOT at Indiana until they beat the snot out of him over Wright ... They got him GOOD, REAL good with that ...

I WANT him to win Indiana to put a stake in Hill's heart, but it ain't going to happen ...

[BlueIdaho]

52. Thank You!

Finger crossed.

[Emillereid]

5. You shouldn't tease - but I sure hope you're right. This campaign is ruining our

chances in November - and the sooner it's over the better.

[PoliticalAmazon]

35. It's also ruining our naturally sunny dispositions. n/t

[WA98296]

6. Okay, I bookmarked it...It will be a party if your sources are right! (:

[PoliticalAmazon]

36. NO FUCKING KIDDING! I know just the place, too. n/t

[cliffordu]

8. K AND R

[LSparkle]

9. I pray you're right because then TWEETY and all the moran pundits

WON'T HAVE ANYTHING TO TALK ABOUT ANYMORE!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[zulchzulu]

16. Well, there is always Billy Ray Cyrus' daughter to pick over...

[LSparkle]

26. Hey, even THAT would be a welcome relief from this primary!

[zulchzulu]

51. You think they might start focusing on McCain's many flip flops...but...

...that is so complicated.

:sarcasm:

[Zachstar]

60. That would rock!!

[Bucky]

11. Ah yes, the infamous "reverse Bradley effect."

Much as I'd like it to be true, I think your prediction is sadly over optimistic. If it's not the Bradley effect" pulling it in for Clinton, then she's just remarkably adept at having the last-minute deciders break her way since Super Tuesday. Either way, you can usually best predict outcomes by adding 4 points to Clinton's polling average from the last polls taken in each state.

It'll be Obama by 5 in Carolina, Clinton by 8 in Hoosierland. Obama will net gain by about 3 delegates.

[dbmk]

38. Yeah, I have him at +5 overall

Over these two posts:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5820291
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5828943

I am very reluctant to believe a double digit win in NC, as I was burned on PA by giving Clinton too little credit there.
+5 might be a bit low though.

Indiana I still think will be a mini-PA.

There might be some Clinton fatigue kicking in, though, as more and more see Hillarys chances for what they are - and as a consequence stay home. Not sure the polls would catch that.

[scheming daemons]

50. It is not the "bradley effect"... it is the "Diebold effect"... only nobody wants to talk about that

[book_worm]

13. you're a brave person.

[rwheeler31]

14. That would be the best outcome.

[JimGinPA]

15. I Hope You're Right...

Even if he does win both, the M$M will spin it that it was somehow just what Hillary needed to stay in the race.

[zulchzulu]

23. The SDs are going to start tapping the Clintons on the shoulder even if HRC wins Indiana

Latest polls in Indiana have Clinton with a 3-4% lead with over 8-10% undecided. It's going to be close as hell, but the Obama Get Out The Vote efforts are going to be overwhelming. The Undecideds will split with a slight advantage to Obama based on the perception that Hillary Clinton is pandering on the gas tax issue as well as Wright Fatigue.

What the MSM will do after this is bring up Wright again to prove that Wright doesn't matter anymore. :crazy: After a day of Superdelegates parading over to Obama, Hillary Clinton will drop out by Friday.

That's my guess.

[mopinko]

27. gotv

i was in indianapolis for the weekend. although the "boots" are tired, they are grimly determined to send hillary home. the voters are tired, too. most of the indecideds i talked to i would bet money were gonna go for the o.

[zulchzulu]

31. Precisely

The GOTV on Obama's side is going to be critical getting the Undecideds (who are sick of the race) to finally do their duty...

[Zachstar]

64. Thank you!!

[Hippo_Tron]

17. So I take it the other 4% in Indiana are gonna vote for Mike Gravel

[mcctatas]

18. OK...

I bookmarked it, but not to gloat if you're wrong. I will not gloat, I will just snark at you for getting my hopes up. I sure hope you are correct though, I could use some good news. :hi:

[Texas Hill Country]

20. lolz

[faithfulcitizen]

21. I will believe this for about 30 seconds and relish it...........................

:loveya:

[MadBadger]

24. I agree on North Carolina. I see it 56-44.

I see Hillary winning the white vote 61-39 with it making up 62 percent of the vote. Obama wins the black vote 90-10 with it making up 34% of the vote.

Indiana is a whole other story, but at the moment I see it being 53.5-46.5 in favor of Hillary.

[cjsmom44]

28. RE: I pray

I pray you are right

My prediction was similar 55 43 Obama in NC 2% other
and a squeaker in IN
1-2% probably going in Hillbots favor..but maybe NOT...

Lets all pray tonight....Remember the 7 votes in Guam ??

I would just love to hear Tweety bird whine and spit ....if Clinton loses

[Pisces]

29. I will keep my fingers crossed all day

[Cha]

30. zulch..I love ya but

this kind of thing has a way of not materializing:(

[zulchzulu]

32. I'm willing to take the hit if I'm wrong

That's my story and I'm stickin' to it.

:hi:

[Cha]

37. I know you are...and please let it be..

:hi:

[Coexist]

43. did you have any other predictions for states?

and how did you do?

[Quixote1818]

33. It's possible. Zogby said Obama had movement toward him the last couple of days

That means the undecideds are breaking for him. He might pull it out by .5% or 1% in Indiana. A real nail biter.

[zulchzulu]

47. That's what I'm saying about Indiana

The undecideds, which are double most MOEs in most polls, will go for Obama. They are looking at her pandering gas tax story and have Wright Fatigue at this point... it will be a nail biter, as you said.

[Zachstar]

59. Hopefully!

[mckeown1128]

40. Nope... your not getting my hopes up...

I got my hopes up for NH... and he lost. I got my hopes up for NV and he lost. I even got my hopes up that he would keep PA close... and he didn't. I jinx Obama when I get my hopes up. The more cynical I am the better he does. So he will lose... and big. -18 in Indiana and minus 2 in North Carolina.

[Jed Dilligan]

41. Though I tend to take these "someone I know" threads

with, not a grain, but a big honkin' BOULDER of salt, I sincerely hope you're right.

[NC_Nurse]

42. That would be great! I love your optimism. I'm glad he'll win here, nut I don't

know much about Indiana...sounds like he may not pull it off there. I hope
we can be decisive enough so that it matters less. People here in the Triangle
have been totally behind him, you know, us educated, elitists types. ;-)

[Zachstar]

63. Let us hope for the best but be ready to go till June!

Please don't forget to phonebank! http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/phonebankmap/

[tekisui]

44. Obama's Camp agrees.

According to the leaked memo. They have only been wrong once.

[Zachstar]

62. Hopefully Obama will win and this mess can end!

[druidity33]

45. yeah, but have you seen this?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5829697


1.2 million votes purged in mostly Dem leaning (ie Barack leaning) districts.

Including 1 county with 115% of the voters purged?

scary shit... and who's behind it?

[kennetha]

46. HA! Ha!

Ha! Ha! Ha! Are you serious? Really?

Ha! Ha! Ha!

Obama is going to get swept tomorrow. His goose is cooked!

[powergirl]

49. I will book mark you and I want you to be right

I'll keep the candles burning.

[Zachstar]

53. That is the 3rd time I have heard a prediction that he wins both today.

Now I still think it is unlikely but the more I read the more I think Obama is going to keep her win to under 5 so she picks up VERY few delegates when her campaign DESPERATELY needs a BIG BIG BIG win.

Your NC numbers look about right.

Let us hope but PLEASE be prepared for this to go all the way till June!!

We have ALOT of work to do if it is not over tomorrow night! And we have to put more spirit into it than ever before! We can do this but we need to be prepared to WORK for it!

HOPE!!

[ClayZ]

54. Yeah!!

K and R

[PseudoIntellect]

55. This is what I would have expected had this been two months ago.

But ever since the 3 AM ad and Wright stuff, it seems he hasn't been doing as well with the undecideds.

I expect a rebound starting after tomorrow, but I'm remaining pessimistic.

[Zachstar]

56. Well everyone needs to expect this to go to June 3rd

I mean seriously starting May 7th if we do not have a nominee we need to hit the ground running for victory. We need to phonebank at http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/phonebankmap/ and if you can get out to these states and go door to door PLEASE do so as well!

We are in the final stretch and it does not look like the supers will overturn the pledged so work hard for victory and lets finish this! Give it you all!

[eridani]

57. Indiana is way too close to call

Agree on NC

[Zachstar]

58. Which is a very good thing because it will mean Clinton is not likely to win +5

A low Clinton win will still mean supers will go to Obama.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

61. i love u

[zulchzulu]

65. We'll always have Paris, dahling

[Sewsojm]

66. Hope your right,

I'm sick of listening to Hillary's lies!

[Political Heretic]

67. I cannot summon the will to hope that much.

:)

[zulchzulu]

68. Here's hoping! n/t

[WA98296]

70. Kicking with an eye on your predictions! (:

[zulchzulu]

71. My NC numbers are about right... 56% to 42% I called 56% to 43%

Indiana is still teetering with votes still to come in Lake County and a couple other Obama hot spots... I knew it would be a nail-biter.

[zulchzulu]

72. Is Lake County going to drop a bomb?

We shall see. As of 10:28 CST, the county is still holding... 50,000+ difference...

[zulchzulu]

73. Less than 20,000 with 28% in... wow...

Nail. Biter.

[Catherina]

74. Me too n/t

[zulchzulu]

75. So it's now all down to one delegate...

Winning the state for Obama certainly would make a nice trophy.

Barack's lead is now officially unsurmountable.

CHEERS!

[dana_b]

76. it's not over, but you're pretty damn close!!

who needs pollsters? we have zulchzulu!

[zulchzulu]

77. I guess we'll find out tomorrow morning!

I am in shock. By the way, my source in Indiana was the great John Nichols who writes for The Nation. He has had his feet on the ground and was amazed how off the cable news pundits were to hat is really going on out there.

CHEERS!

[zulchzulu]

78. Hey, I was close! Congrats to the Clinton campaign n/t