Obama will hit the Pelosi Club number within 2 weeks!

[Dbdmjs1022]

Something that seems to be underlooked about the upcoming primaries is that Obama will, barring a major unforseen event, trigger the "Pelosi Club" Superdelegates within the next 2 weeks. For those who don't know, the Pelosi club is a group of superdelegates who have pledged to support whoever wins the majority of pledged delegate.There are 9 of them right now (6 undeclared, 1 Clinton SD, 2 Obama SDs). So when Obama hits the number he will gain 7 new SDs and Hillary will lose 2 As of right now, that majority stands at 1627 pledge delegates. Obama, as of right now, has 1490.5 (needs 136.5 to hit the number). Hillary has 1339.5 pledged delegates (needs 287.5).

So let's do some quick math.

NC has 115 pledged delegates. Let's say Obama wins those by the current RCP average, 7%, and give him a +5 delegate advantage. So he gets 60-55. That takes his Pelosi number down to 76 delegates. It takes Hillary's number down to 232

IN has 72 pledged delegates. Lets say Hill wins by the current RCP average, 5%, and give her a +4 delegate advantage. So she gets 38-34. That takes Obama's number down to 42 and her number down to 194.

So what's next? WV on the 13th, with 28 delegates. She's polling really well there, so let's say she wins by 20%, and give her a +8 delegate advantage, or 18-10. His number drops to 32, and hers drops to 176.

And after that is the 20th, with KY and Oregon, with 51 and 52 delegates respectively. She's polling well there too, so lets give her a 20% win again, and a +9 delegate advantage, or 30-21. That takes his Pelosi number to 11, and hers to 146.

Then Oregon will put him over the top. Right now he's polling there up about 10 points, but it's a ways off so let's only give him a +4 delegate advantage, or 28-24. That puts him WELL above the 11 more needed and activates the Pelosi club delegates.

And while only 9 SDs are "officially" in this club, the endorsement of Nancy Pelosi for Obama may very well cause other SDs to endorse as well. Either way, Hillary will take a major, and perhaps fatal hit to her campaign.

[Avalux]

1. May 20th.

Will be the perfect birthday present for me since my birthday is May 21st. ;-) :hi:

[Triana]

2. Yes and Hillary will have a hizzy, demand that the R & BC strip him of it...

...on May 31st.

[grantcart]

3. tomorrow it should be between 34-43

[Dbdmjs1022]

4. Agreed. I gave her the edge in my totals so her supporters can't cry foul on my math

[FedoraLV]

5. Good reminder! /nt

[featherman]

6. I agree... my Oregon resident children and their spouses agrees that the Oregon

primary will likely put Obama over the top. Tally up 5 more votes for Obama spread from Ashland to Portland.

[Yael]

7. Good analysis. Bookmarked -- lets hope you are right!

K&R