Regardless of who they plan to vote for more voters expect Kerry to win

[Nicholas_J]

46% Say Kerry Will Win

45% Expect Bush to Triumph

Who do you think will win?

Bush-Cheney 45%
Kerry-Edwards 46%
RasmussenReports.com




Thursday, July 16, 2004--Regardless of who they plan to vote for, 46% of all voters now believe the Kerry-Edward team will win while 45% say the Bush-Cheney ticket will be re-elected.

While the one-point advantage is statistically insignificant, it's the first time that a plurality has expected a victory for the Democrats. Last week, 46% thought Bush would win while 44% said they expected a Kerry victory. That's quite a change from a month ago when 53% of American voters believed Bush would be re-elected and just 35% said Kerry would win.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Who%20Will%20Win%20July%2016.htm

[Bronco69]

1. I think you'll see Kerry's lead

increase significantly around September/October. :-)

[Nicholas_J]

2. Its no the lead that is important

Its the fact that even those who are going to vote for Bush do not beleive that Bush will win. They are losing confidence in the Bush Administration.

This is very much the way the Dean machine began to lose its momentum. After Iowa, and thne after the New Hampsire Primary, exit polls showed that among people who voted for Dean, only 22 percent of all of those who voted for him beleived that he would win the nomination and even less, 20 percent beleived that he would beat Geprge Bush, as commpared to exits polls for Kerry in which 54 percent of those who chose Kerry thought he would be the nominee and either 56 o4 58 percent ( I cant remember all of the numbers at this point) of the people who wanted Kerry thought he could beat Bush. Once those who are voting for you start losing faith that you can win, you cant.

[Downtown Hound]

3. The bandwagon effect is starting to take hold

Yeah! The momentum is clearly shifting towards Kerry. Bush is stumbling around still defending all his past decisions while Kerry is glowing more and more every day. Things are looking up!

[Kahuna]

4. This number has to be very distressing to lil' Georgy. The air of....

inevitability is now with Kerry. A year ago it was overwhelmingly with *.