PPP NC: Obama (53) ; Clinton (43)

[MattNC]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_050608.pdf

Obama leads 84-11 among blacks
Clinton leads 60-34 among whites

Margin of error 3.3%

[MadBadger]

1. Stable since last week, her gaining only two points. PPP is based out of NC so I trust them.

[writes3000]

2. Did not know that. Good to know. And thanks, MattNC.

[MattNC]

5. Me too

I think it'll probably be Obama by high single digits, but I won't be surprised if he wins by well over 10 either.

[MadBadger]

10. I'm still thinking 12 points.

[cali]

3. kick- though I'd really like to see Obama do better among whites

I'll take it.

[Zynx]

4. That sounds about right. I anticipated Hillary winning about 62-38 among whites and

Obama winning 90-10 among blacks which comes up with about that percentage spread.

[MadBadger]

7. Me too, give or take a few points.

Most of my predictions have been using a 60-40 white vote split and a 90-10 black vote. I think the margin will depend on black-white vote ratio.

[Zynx]

11. I think they have it about right in this polling sample.

Some polls had it closer to a 40% share for the black vote, but I think 35% is a fair estimate.

[MattNC]

17. It's about 40%

in early voting. Probably a little higher than election day numbers if I had to guess.

[maxsolomon]

6. as a caucasian obama supporter, i'd like to ask

what's with the caucasian support for hillary at almost 2:1?

i realize i'm a wine drinking saab driving advance degreed tree hugging elitist, but out here in WA state, its a landslide for obama.

[MadBadger]

8. Well, your in NW liberal land. NC, though it has the college educated liberals, its still the south

[MattNC]

12. if Obama

runs well in the major cities among whites, it won't be such a landslide among them. if he breaks 40% with whites statewide, he's headed for a big win.

[Independent-Voter]

13. It's likely the far east and west end of the state. I'm interested to see how the districts shake

out. The I-40 / I-85 corridor should go strongly for Obama.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

14. Low information voters, mostly.

Those Obama-is-a-Muslim-who-doesn't-say-the-Pledge emails go out like crazy in states that are about to have a primary. It seemed that every white voter I talked to in NV had gotten one. And god knows what kind of robo-calls and flyers they're getting.

[democrattotheend]

9. Obama leading big among early voters

63-34 among those who have already voted. That's encouraging, I guess.

This may be one election where Obama actually outperforms the exit poll. Usually it's the other way around.

[MadBadger]

15. 29 percent early voters

matches up with the 26% that Zogby had.

[thevoiceofreason]

16. And, from the results I had door to door in Durham this weekend

There had been very little early voting in the African American precincts - folks said they liked to vote on election day.

That could be a very good sign.

[oldhickory1767]

18. Obama propped up by the AA vote as usual

just the facts folks

bad news for the GE.

[MattNC]

19. b/c the AA vote

somehow counts less than others?

[Iceburg]

20. Darn, he was up +25 on 04/20 -- 15 point drop in 15 days...YIKES/nt