My early popular and electoral vote predictions

[WI_DEM]

I can hear the collective, "So What!" but here it is anyway.

I think this election is going to be very close to the results of the 1988 election between King George I and Dukakis where Bush won 54-46.

My early prediction is that the people want change and Kerry in his acceptance speech and debates with Bush will convince the waviers that he is an acceptable alternative.

Here is my popular vote prediction:

Kerry: 53%
Bush: 45%
Third parties: 2%

I believe that the following states will go Democratic:
New York
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Maine
New Hampshire
Delaware
Vermont
Rhode Island
Maryland
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Michigan
Illinois
Iowa
Ohio
North Carolina
Missouri
Florida
Virginia
California
Oregon
Washington
Hawaii
New Mexico
Nevada
Arizona

Total 365 electoral votes for Kerry and 173 for Bush--an electoral landslide.

Democrats will regain the Senate.
Right now it is 51 Reps 48 Dems and 1 Independent who votes with the Democrats--so really 51-49--all we need is to have a one seat gain to have control of the Senate--thanks to VP Edwards casting deciding vote.

Democrats will win GOP seats in Illinois, Colorado, Alaska, and Oklahoma.
All of our incumbents will win.
We will hold onto open seats in North Carolina (Erskine Bowles), South Carolina (Inez Tennenbaum), Florida and Louisiana.

The GOP will pick up our open seat in Georgia. They will also hold onto Specter's seat in Pa and to Bond's seat in Missouri.

Net Gain for the Democrats 3 seats
The New Senate will be 51-48-1 Democratic or 52-48 with Jeffords.

[olddem43]

1. very optimistic - But, based on what polls or expected events?

It ain't going that way right now.

[WI_DEM]

2. optimistic

because Bush is an incumbent president who is only at best running evenly with his opponent. I think people want to vote against him but they have to be assured that Kerry is up to the job. It is like Reagan vs. Carter in 1980--up until the one debate they had it was even in the polls--but Reagan aced the debate and calmed people who thought he was a trigger happy mad man into thinking he was a wise old grandfather. The result is that the polls quickly changed as people became comfortable with Reagan and he won by ten points. I think last minute deciders this year will also break heavily against the incumbent.

As for the senate I just think we have better candidates and opportunities and yes, polls have shown democrats leading in SC, NC, IL, Alaska, Oklahoma, and Colorado.