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AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 09:02 AM
Original message
You might have the wrong candidate IF....
Edited on Wed Apr-30-08 09:31 AM by dmsRoar
Your candidate might not be as different from the republicans as you think she is IF....

Rupert Murdoch donates to her campaign.
Her campaign in fact is funded PRIMARILY by big money donors and special interests.
She voted for the war in Iraq.
She voted for Kyl-Lieberman.
She voted against the ban on funding for cluster bombs, which often are used in civilian areas.
She voted against a ban on torture.
She voted with republicans for the expansion of off-shore drilling.
She favors nuclear obliteration, if necessary, of Iran.
She has a worse senate voting record on Civil Liberties, Civil Rights, and the environment than her democratic opponent.
She was endorsed by Richard Mellon Scaife.
Osama Bin Laden has appeared in one of her ads.
She push polls.
She stirs the Wright pot to attract voters.
Her husband says the African-American candidate running against her will brag next that "he doesn't steal cars."
Exactly one-sixth of her voters in the last primary were whites who said that race was important in their decision.
She's banking on a Florida 2000-style overturn of her opponent's lead in delegates, popular vote, and states won.
She says a hawkish flip-flopping double-speaking republican with no new ideas is qualified to be president.



Your candidate might not be as trustworthy as you think she is IF....

She agrees that two states' delegates won't count, then blames her opponent for not agreeing to count them.
She says a routine landing on a tarmac actually was a duck and run event under sniper fire.
She says she didn't know that her staff in her husband's White House would fire the travel office staff after she told them to do so.
She says voters will decide the primary until she falls behind and then says super delegates should decide the primary.
She advocated consistently for the passage of NAFTA and then said she didn't.
She says she's experienced because of her time as first lady, but limited records of that time show she gained little real experience.
She says shaking MLK's hand changed her life, right before she became a Goldwater Girl.
Her campaign robo-called voters to lie about her opponent's position on hunting and guns.
She says she was named after Sir Edmund Hillary, who became famous only after climbing Mt. Everest five years after she was born.
She says she didn't know that her brothers were being paid to secure pardons that President Clinton granted.
She says she was instrumental in the Northern Ireland peace talks when she really was at best a bit player.
She says she was the first sitting senator to criticize the war in Iraq, when her opponent really was.
Her campaign says she was the first senator to call Darfur "genocide" two years earlier than she actually did, and after other senators already had.
She suggests she has a popular vote lead in the democratic primary when by all reasonable considerations she trails by hundreds of thousands.
She had to try to back-room negotiate her enormous policy failure in the nineties--health care reform--behind closed doors.
Her campaign lies about its campaign debt by $5 mill.
She says she's firing a strategist but keeps him on the payroll.



Your candidate might not be as electable in the general election as she thinks she is IF....

Most of the electorate thinks she is untrustworthy.
The only G.E. electability argument she can muster centers on two swing states, ignores several others, and discounts a handful of red states her opponent can carry, by most polls.
Her core constituency in the democratic primary is white working class voters itching to vote for McCain instead of McCain-lite.
Her persona plugs into a preconstructed sixteen-year-hardened smear-machine's framework to fire off slander against her.
Fox News, Joe Scarborough, Rush Limbaugh, and Pat Buchanan largely have held their fire against her during the primary season, because republicans can't wait to run against her.
Fox News, Joe Scarborough, Rush Limbaugh, and Pat Buchanan have hammered her opponent non-stop during the primary season, because republicans don't want to run against him.
Rush Limbaugh has organized a massive and at times effective campaign to pad her primary vote, because republicans can't wait to run against her.
She's won hardly any urban centers throughout the primary season.
She's broke.
Her right-wing media allies during the primary season would all dry up her screen-time in the general election.
She trails the candidate she calls "unelectable" by 150 pledged delegates, hundreds of thousands of votes, and states won.



BARACK OBAMA 08.

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Dawgs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 09:06 AM
Response to Original message
1. Nice post. I'm sure a Hillary supporter is working on an Obama one right now.
:)
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msongs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 09:11 AM
Response to Original message
2. two candidates with gob of negatives - paging Al Gore on the hot line nt
Edited on Wed Apr-30-08 09:11 AM by msongs
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chimpymustgo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 09:12 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. Al Gore, please pick up the courtesy phone in the lobby!!!!
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 09:14 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. Sorry
I don't think Al wants it and it shouldn't be his. Like it or not these are the people we have to choose from.
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chimpymustgo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 09:17 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. Well, let's see what happens in Denver. Dems will NOT send up Obambi.
They don't want historic losses across the board.
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Alcibiades Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 09:37 AM
Response to Reply #5
13. This is our year
Both candidates would defeat McCain in November. The same model that has outperformed all the others put forward by the political scientists who are into this sort of thing predicts that we will win, irrespective of who our nominee will be:

"The estimated coefficient of -4.7 for the time-for-change variable means that once a party has controlled the White House for 8 years or longer, it is penalized by almost five percentage points. This obviously makes it much more difficult for the incumbent party to win another term. For example, if real GDP grows at an annual rate of 3.7 percent during the first two quarters of 2008, as it did during the first two quarters of 2004, and if President Bush's net approval rating in late June of 2008 stands at -1, as it did in late June of 2004, the Republican presidential candidate would be predicted to receive only 48.5 percent of the major party vote in the 2008 presidential election."

This model has successfully predicted every presidential election since 1988. I was a skeptic in 2004, because I thought that surely, surely, the American people would see how badly Bush and the Republicans had misruled, yet the Time for Change model predicted a Bush victory, by a share of 53.7% of the two-party vote. Shenanigans aside, Bush won with 51.4% of the two-party vote. That's pretty extraordinary, given that the key variable (other than time in office of the party in power, which is the main predictor in the model) is presidential approval in June. In other words, the model predicted with an error of only 2.3%, which is remarkable because the average error of polls taken four days before the election was 1.9%! It made me a believer.

We will do quite well with either candidate, unless one of them shoots someone in the face. I'm an Edwards supporter, and I would have preferred it if neither Clinton or Obama were running this time around, because they did beat my guy. That being said, I support Obama today for many reasons, but I do think either candidate will do well against McCain, hyperbole from the various partisans notwithstanding.

If you'd like to read more on the Time for Change Model, there's a quite recent paper at:

http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/Political/PDFs/ISF2007/ISF_paper_07_Abramowitz.pdf
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 09:40 AM
Response to Reply #5
14. Dumbest Idea ever
Unless you have a woman, latino, or AA alternative it doesn't work. Taking this nomination away from a woman or an AA and handing it to a white southern male because he is more "electable" is the dumbest idea I have ever heard.
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AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 09:49 AM
Response to Reply #14
15. I second that.
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Lucky 13 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 11:52 AM
Response to Reply #14
23. Third
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1776Forever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 09:18 AM
Response to Original message
6. This should be a hand-out to all Indiana voters and beyond if HRC continues on!
Awesome post - so truthful it hurts! You would think you were reading a McCain post if you didn't know better. But even then it would be hard to come up with as much baggage as this list does!

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AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 10:15 AM
Response to Reply #6
18. don't worry--I'll be on McCain when the time comes.
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hogwyld Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 09:20 AM
Response to Original message
7. And one is threatening Thermonuclear obliteration
on a "what if" question in regards to Iran.
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AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 09:25 AM
Response to Reply #7
10. damn, how'd I miss that one?
(will try to edit)
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stillcool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 09:23 AM
Response to Original message
8. Who needs the Democratic Party?
obviously not Hillary.
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AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 12:27 PM
Response to Reply #8
24. thank you for that..
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redqueen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 09:24 AM
Response to Original message
9. My pleasure.
Edited on Wed Apr-30-08 09:38 AM by redqueen
:hi:
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AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 09:31 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. thanks, rq. I owe ya.
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me b zola Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 09:36 AM
Response to Original message
12. .
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chill_wind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 10:06 AM
Response to Original message
16. One for the bookmarks. K&R n/t
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Labors of Hercules Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 10:08 AM
Response to Original message
17. Nice and succinct.
YEY!!!!! :applause:
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liberaldem4ever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 10:21 AM
Response to Original message
19. Excellent post K & R!!!
:kick:
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TragedyandHope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 11:21 AM
Response to Original message
20. Things that make you go, "Hmmm...?"
Edited on Wed Apr-30-08 11:21 AM by TragedyandHope
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butterfly77 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 11:43 AM
Response to Reply #20
21. K&R...
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AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 11:50 AM
Response to Reply #20
22. yikes
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 12:32 PM
Response to Original message
25. You were better off leaving this one out
"The only G.E. electability argument she can muster centers on two swing states, ignores several others, and discounts a handful of red states her opponent can carry, by most polls"

Florida and particularly Ohio are so pivotal they virtually trump everything else in the OP combined. Obama supporters have been keen to ignore that. If Intrade put up a contract on Florida and Ohio allocated to the GOP, and what the general election outcome would be given that scenario, the Republicans literally would be trading at about 80/20 or 85/15 favoritism.

I think Obama can win Ohio, and even Florida, contrary to conventional wisdom, if he manages a significant national margin over McCain, let's say 3+ points. But in a 50/50 terrain, Hillary has a more natural path to 270+.

Those red states are exactly as you describe them -- red. Comparatively low percentage of liberals and high percentage of conservatives make them red. It's not a game like Obama supporters like to play, grasping at old polls and declaring he made a phenomenal comeback, comfy to ignore the baseline realities. In red states Obama is going to be running smack into 18% liberals and 37% conservatives, devastating breakdown like that, and it's hardly the equivalent of a partisan primary in which like minded voters can suddenly avalanche toward one side. You would think we would have learned that in Lamont/Lieberman, the realities of a vastly altered landscape.
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AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 01:13 PM
Response to Reply #25
28. njo doubt it wouldn't be easy...however, some of the reds weren't red by...
much. Look at Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico, each of which Obama leads in vs. McCain (actually he splits in NM in the last two polls). The news in each of these states is worse for Clinton. IF Obama takes those, he's up 273-265 without Florida or Ohio. (If we eliminate NM, it's 269-269, with the Dem house as the tiebreaker. I agree either Democrat can take Ohio, with the party machinery running that state, which makes it 293-245.) Florida is a land mine that I think Democrats must avoid. I'd suggest strategically spending money there in order to try to exhaust McCain's resources, but for no other reason. It IS NOT winnable for either candidate, given the republican apparatus there.

However, if Obama takes Webb as his veep, Virginia is certainly in play (but Clinton trails there by too much for Webb to help), likewise TX is in play for Obama (but not for Clinton, based, admittedly, on a poll that's weeks old) if he takes Richardson as his veep. (Obviously, NM is a certain win, then, too.) Wins in either TX or VA mean democrats win 306 or 327 electoral votes.

Now, most of these polls are three weeks old or older and certainly aren't enough to go on alone. The news is probably better for both candidates, since their supporters are being asked about hypothetically supporting the candidate they're brawling against at that moment. But Ohio and Florida are no longer the be-all and end-all of the game.
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crimsonblue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 12:02 AM
Response to Reply #25
30. I didn't know that Florida + Ohio = 270 electoral votes
thanks for clearing that up for me.
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eridani Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 02:21 AM
Response to Reply #25
32. Clinton is firmly in favor of voter suppression in urban areas
That will cost her Ohio, just like it cost Kerry.
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Perry Logan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 12:37 PM
Response to Original message
26. It would be funnier if the charges were true. But you can't have everything.
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NoPasaran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 01:02 PM
Response to Original message
27. You might have the wrong candidate if...
Edited on Wed Apr-30-08 01:03 PM by NoPasaran
He comes with his own Willy Horton attached at the hip.

Think Obama can shake the Wright curse? "God damn" you're wrong!



Democrats, just say NO to Obama's political suicide pact!
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AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-30-08 01:33 PM
Response to Reply #27
29. it's possible you have a point. Clinton's entire 9% PA margin=the number of...
white voters who voted for her and said race was important. And we all know Wright is there for white people to have an excuse to vote on race.

Then again, maybe the rest of the electorate will be better than that.
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smiley_glad_hands Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 12:27 AM
Response to Original message
31. K&R. eom
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