BREAKING 4-29-08 Survey USA: North Carolina - Obama 49 / Clinton 44

[PBS Poll-435]

Edited to add a better link from jefferson_dem. (thanks! :-))


http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d4d1bc7e-32d4-438e-8143-75c8b25b3435

Hillary is up 4 points in less than a week!

:woohoo: :woohoo:

[YEM]

1. WOOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!

This press conference won't help either.

[JKaiser]

2. Yippie! The tide is certainly changing! Go Hill!

[islandmkl]

3. and...to Hillary's primary history...the last week is Obama's week...

we shall see....

no votes counted so far...

[tritsofme]

4. That must be because Obama hasn't campaigned there yet.

lol

[PBS Poll-435]

5. (And he isn't running any ads...)

;-)

[rodeodance]

31. Did he take NC for granted?

[jefferson_dem]

6. Link here -

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d4d1bc7e-32d4-438e-8143-75c8b25b3435

[PBS Poll-435]

11. Awesome - Thanks for the link. I will edit the OP.

:-)

:toast:

[panAmerican]

42. jefferson_dem, you're a gem!

Tee-hee :)

[Dinger]

Good News Indeed!

Thanks:)

[Dinger]

7. Good News Indeed!

Thanks:)

[Dinger]

8. Good News Indeed!

Thanks:)

[Dinger]

9. Good News Indeed!

Thanks:)

[Dinger]

10. Good News Indeed!

Thanks:)

[PBS Poll-435]

12. Thanks for the Kicks!

She is closing in on him FAST.

[GoesTo11]

52. You are quintuply pleased!

[gabeana]

13. and you said you were not a hillbot

I caught you lying again

[PBS Poll-435]

14. WTF? Put up or STFU. Thanks!

I never EVER said that I wasn't for Clinton.

[gabeana]

15. last week you said you were not a Hillbot

if not so whats with your whoop nothing wrong with that if you are Hillbot but you said you are not. then when it was reported that Hill underreported her debt you said they did not but today it was just annunced that they fixed the "error" so her debt was really 15.3 million for march, then you claimed you don't attack Obama for Wright but I caught you doing that
you lie a lot it must be in your DNA

[PBS Poll-435]

16. Umm....how did I attack wright?

The loan to her campaign was in her initial filings, also.

[gabeana]

102. It was an oversight because supposedly it was listed on the wrong

page:sarcasm: Everything with her campaign is a caculation to minimize her appearance of lying. What sounds worse 15 million debt or 10 million?

so if nothing was wrong what did they have to correct over the weekend.

you are smarter than that don't be so naive

as for wright just go back to our history on the matter,

[PBS Poll-435]

110. Listen Bozo...

Knock it off. You are being silly or insane.

Your pick.

[book_worm]

17. Don't get your hopes up, Obama will win by double digits

among people who have already voted he has a 57-39 lead. I think in the end it will be something close to that.

[PBS Poll-435]

18. Nah...he was leading in the Texas primary among early voters too...

[book_worm]

20. She's not going to win NC or come that close.

But dream on.

[rodeodance]

35. he ws 20-25 pts had at one pt. tsk tsk

[PBS Poll-435]

39. Isn't this a state where he was supposed to win BIG?

:rofl:

[rodeodance]

41. sure was. Folks here on DU and Obama himself have gotten too overconfident.

[PBS Poll-435]

43. Well...If you count your chickens before they hatch,

they will never come home to roost!


:P

[rodeodance]

46. ha ha

[totodeinhere]

61. Clinton supporters were saying that it didn't matter that Obama was behind by twenty points in PA...

and then came back to lose by single digits. But now that it's possible that Clinton has come back from a big deficit to make it closer in NC, to some Clinton supporters that's a big deal. So why wasn't it a big deal when Obama did it in PA? This is just another example of political hypocrisy practiced by the Clinton camp.

[musicblind]

86. It was impressive that Obama managed that. It is also impressive that Hillary managed this

(if she does manage this). However, I remember it being mostly Obama supporters who were saying how it was such a BIG deal that Obama did achieve that in PA, and now they are saying the opposite about Hillary achieving it in NC. So there is hypocrisy on both sides. I for one say they both deserve props for their achievements, although a win is still a win either way.

[SoCalDem]

30. And surprise surprise he DID win what mattered in TX..DELEGATES DELEGATES DELEGATES

As he did also, in NEVADA and TIED on delegates in NH..

So THREE of the states that she (Thanks Media) claims as HER states, were 2 losses and a tie...for what COUNTS..DELEGATES DELEGATES DELEGATES

I am in no suggesting that she will nt try to undo the delegate count in any way she can, and it's impossible to know how this will turn out....BUT based on the rules of this and ANY primary (even the two her husband ran and won) PRIMARIES ARE ABOUT DELEGATES...NOT "popular vote"..

Super delegates can READ, and they DO know how Rush Limbaugh folks have been pumping up her "numbers" since Texas & Ohio.. They don't seem to like her a whole lot either, or more than 1/4 of them would have piled onto her bandwagon when she announced..

but do enjoy her good fortune right now.. she seems buoyed and radiant when she benefits for the effects of slime politics on others..so she's no doubt having a great time right now...

reminds me of a 9th inning rally by the home team..all quite exciting, except they are down by 12, so that grand slam in the 9th has to be put into perspective, especially since the next batter hit a pop-up to the pitcher for the last out..

[PBS Poll-435]

33. This was just a POLL vs. RESULT comparison

Thanks?

:shrug:

[LVjinx]

62. Yeah. Who cares about how people actually vote? Just delegats matter. /sarc

[SoCalDem]

71. In primaries, that's just the way it is..

In the general elections popular vote is the measure..

Not all states even record the popular votes in their caucuses..should all their "people who voted" be excluded from the process? There is no law that even makes a state HAVE a primary..They can choose delegates pretty much any way they want (see texas :)..)

[BzaDem]

109. FAIL. Superdelegates matter just as much. And they will look at the popular vote.

[Zhade]

115. Are you saying that into a mirror? She's not getting the nom, keep dreaming.

NT!

[Zhade]

114. Um, he ended up winning Texas after all.

Your point?

[NJSecularist]

19. If Hillary comes within 5, Obama is done.

:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

Obama is starting to have a coalition that is looking more and more like Jessie Jackson's.

[Brundle_Fly]

22. explain that comment in a way that doesn't make me think you are

race baiting.

[NJSecularist]

23. It's not race baiting, it's the truth.

What is Obama's coalition right now? In a state that has as many affluent liberals and blacks as North Carolina, if Hillary comes within 5, he is unelectable.

[Nedsdag]

79. I guess this means Hillary is Walter Mondale.

Hello, GOP sweep!

[demo dutch]

96. Actually I think Obama might turn out to be Walter Mondale

[jonestonesusa]

112. HRCers sound more like Republicans every day.

"Affluent liberals and blacks" have long been the base of the party, and they get the least respect from DINO's. Is this the new party line for HRCers?

[rodeodance]

44. oh for gawds sake!! give it UP..........

when you folks lose you bring out the race card!

[Name removed]

76. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[rodeodance]

108. Get a grip and stop being RUDE. I am a Democrat and I am not the one

mentioning race.

[underpants]

25. I'd agree with that in the sense that she is just trying to eek back before Denver

and then the party can go back to her inevitability and not -the innercircle that is- not think of themselves of being full of shit.

[Triana]

27. WRONG! Obama would STILL be ahead.

[NJSecularist]

34. Obama will not have 2025 delegates by the end of the primary. So it does not matter. n/t

[David__77]

45. Oh but he will.

Counting the superdelegates who have and will endorse him, when the primaries are concluded he indeed will have a majority of delegates. But we shall see. I'd certainly wager money on it though.

[AZ Criminal JD]

111. Every Obama supporter backs off when I try to wager. How about you?

[Leopolds Ghost]

75. "Obama is starting to have a coalition that is looking more and more like Jessie Jackson's." And?

Do you have something against Jesse Jackson?

Of course you attacked Clinton for saying this as if it were
some sort of insult. You were supposedly an Obama fan then,
remember, "NJSecularist"?

[musicblind]

88. If Hillary narrows it to a single digit win... It is a bad sign for the Obama camp

imho

Doesn't mean that Obama wont still be the nominee, but it is a bad sign.

[Secret_Society]

21. Great stuff

Hope she can keep it within ten and win by 6+ in Indiana... Then on to the strongholds of WV and Kentucky

[smalll]

24. WOOHOO!

This is exciting. If she can win NC, which up until now I have had NO hopes for, it will be OVER - Our Girl wins. And this poll is PRE ThrowingWrightUnderTheBusGate! At this point, there WILL be a sizeable contingent of AAs who will decline to show up to vote for Obama.

[PBS Poll-435]

53. I sure hope so..

:party:

[Tropics_Dude83]

26. Hillary win in North Carolina ahead!!!

The nomination is hers!!

[PBS Poll-435]

28. It is gonna take more that a win in NC, but the path is clear...

:party:

[Bensthename]

29. delete

[Bensthename]

32. Other polls show him up by 12 and 14.. So dont get your hopes up too high.

Obama Clinton Spread
RCP Average 04/26 - 04/28 -- 50.3 40.0 Obama +10.3
SurveyUSA 04/26 - 04/28 727 LV 49 44 Obama +5.0
Rasmussen 04/28 - 04/28 774 LV 51 37 Obama +14.0
PPP (D) 04/26 - 04/27 1121 LV 51 39 Obama +12.0


Today from Real Clear Politics.

[PBS Poll-435]

38. Yep.

I am gonna go with the winner, among those, this season...

And this result was before the big endorsement and the controversy regarding Obama's former pastor.

[David__77]

36. Obama doesn't even need to beat Clinton in NC to win at the convention.

There are relatively few delegates in play right now. Obama will be competitive, the superdelegates are committing each day. Obama will not withdraw and he will be ahead in delegates at the convention. Clinton can hope for a VP slot, I suppose.

[rodeodance]

47. ha ha MOVE THAT GOALPOST!!

[David__77]

50. The only goal post is getting a majority of delegates at convention.

You'll never hear me saying anything to the contrary, at any time. I strongly believe Obama will have a majority of delegates when it is time to select a presidential nominee. All else is PR shenanigans.

[Hoof Hearted]

67. When Obama loses North Carolina it will truly be OVER.

But, he does have a nice house, so, he'll be O.K.

[PBS Poll-435]

69. And lots of land too!

;-)

[David__77]

72. It will be over when a candidate gets a majority of delegates.

And not truly before that. I believe Obama will emergy with a majority, you do not.

[muryan]

92. Not quite

Obama Clinton Spread
RCP Average 04/26 - 04/28 -- 50.3 40.0 Obama +10.3
SurveyUSA 04/26 - 04/28 727 LV 49 44 Obama +5.0
Rasmussen 04/28 - 04/28 774 LV 51 37 Obama +14.0
PPP (D) 04/26 - 04/27 1121 LV 51 39 Obama +12.0

[Texas Hill Country]

37. nice! good for her.

[rodeodance]

40. says obama had a 10 pt lead last 2 months with this pollster. oops.

.....
........In North Carolina, Clinton Closes To Within 5 Of Obama: In a Democratic Primary in North Carolina today, 04/29/08, one week till votes are counted, the 10-point lead that Barack Obama has had for two months is halved, to now 5 points, Obama 49%, Clinton 44%, according to SurveyUSA's 7th tracking poll, conducted exclusively for WTVD-TV Raleigh. In SurveyUSA last four polls, over the past two months, Obama has led by 10, 8, 10, and 9 points. Today: 5. White voters are key. Since January, Clinton had led among Carolina whites by 14, 19, 17, 22 and 23 points. But today, suddenly: 31.

[TheWraith]

48. Sorry, but you're looking at a bogus poll

SurveyUSA is always more friendly to Clinton than Obama, for whatever reason.

The way you know it's a bogus poll? Clinton went up. She's only done that once before in the entire campaign.

[PBS Poll-435]

49. umm? They are in the very top tier of pollsters this year

Rasmussen, Zogby, ABC/WashPo, No Kudos for them...

[TheWraith]

55. Wrong. Try comparing results to reality.

[PBS Poll-435]

56. Reality or "reality?"

Who is your pollster of choice?

[nxylas]

57. They have a history of overpredicting for Clinton

They were the ones that showed her winning PA by about twice as much as she actually did.

[NJSecularist]

59. False. They showed her winning by 5. She won by 10.

They overpolled Obama.

Any more excuses you want to make?

[nxylas]

70. Sorry, I hadn't seen their most recent PA poll

The one before that had her winning by 14 points.

[muryan]

93. She won by 9

If you are trying to make factual claims, use facts.

[Zhade]

116. 9.2, not ten.

Just for the record.

[LVjinx]

63. If by overpredicting, you mean "getting close to the actual result" then yes, what you say is true

[rodeodance]

51. KILL THE MESSENGER--very Rovian

[TheWraith]

54. God, your hypocrisy is stunning.

Accuse anybody who tells the truth of being biased against you, and if somebody points it out, call them "Rovian."

Try actually comparing poll results to reality.

[FlyingSquirrel]

58. Gawrsh.

I wonder what Hill supporters will say if Obama wins, say, 54.7% to 45.3% (a difference of 9.4 points)?

Will they say he won by 10%, 55-45? Or will they say "She got it down to single digits"?

[FlyingSquirrel]

85. *crickets*

[jackson_dem]

60. Change we can believe in!

:woohoo:

[jackson_dem]

64. Clinton leads 2:1 among whites. Cue the racism! excuse

/img]

Obama leads 8:1 among blacks--he is just that damn good a candidate!

Richardson got 2% in NH. He just sucked as a candidate. Him being Latino had nothing to do with it. See, he is no St. Obama. If the messiah doesn't get 90% racism is a factor.

[David__77]

73. Blacks giving preference to a Black candidate is different than whites doing the same.

Anyone who thinks they're the same thing denies the existence of the oppression of Black people.

[jackson_dem]

74. I am sure Louis Farrakhan supports Obama for non-racist reasons!

:crazy:

[Leopolds Ghost]

77. Why didn't Hillary Clinton reject Ed Rendell's endorsement then?

[David__77]

90. "Louis Farrakhan: 21st Century 'Welfare Queen'"

This old canard is truly Reaganesque in its depravity. I have no idea whether or not Farrakhan is bigoted against white people, and I don't care either. But he's not backed up by a white power structure that gives preference to whites in this society. So, yes, it's different in either case.

[Hoof Hearted]

65. Woooo Hooooo! GREAT NEWS!

K&R!

[Beacool]

66. Wow!!!!!!!!!!!

Great news!!!!!!

:bounce:

[PBS Poll-435]

68. It sure is....

And the data was mostly before the Governor's endorsement and Obama's unfortunate media problems.

[hokies4ever]

78. Her tactics explain her 4 point gain

For example, her despicable use of push-polling by her campaign strategists' company. Hillary would punch a baby in the face if it would win her this primary election.

[Bucky]

80. Obama's stuck between a rock and a hard place

A rock



a hard place

[Aloha Spirit]

81. Haha OMG. The best part of that survey is that blacks were 33% of respondents.

[jsamuel]

83. are you saying that is high or low for NC?

[Aloha Spirit]

89. For the primary, I'd say that's about 10% off, it should be more like 43%.

[jsamuel]

99. well, in most states so far, men and women were at 40-60% and it is 45-55% here

so, I think it would probably even out

[Aloha Spirit]

100. Yeah saw that too. I wish these pollsters would try harder in the respondent composition or just not

publish that info! Gets me worked up! Ha.

[Yossariant]

82. Yeah. And hell yeah!

:woohoo:

[Maddy McCall]

84. I will be pleasantly surprised if she takes NC.

Not counting on it, but a NC win + an Indiana win will effectively end the Obama campaign.

[musicblind]

91. It wont end the Obama campaign but it will give a HUGE push to the Clinton

Campaign. It would make it much more likely she might become the nominee, and would almost guarantee some form of a Unity Ticket. That being said, as much as I wish she would, I doubt she will win NC. I live here, and I just don't think it is going to happen. Though I did get to see Bill Clinton speak in person! So I'm really glad the race has gotten this far. :)

[demo dutch]

95. Cool huh, NC will actually make a difference

[musicblind]

97. I know, it's been very exciting!

plus I've been taking a course on News Analysis while all of this is going on! The professor has been detailing it everyday.

[Radical Activist]

87. eh

nevermind

[demo dutch]

94. Duh, I knew that would happen after PA

[demo dutch]

98. Indiana still unchanged Clinton 52% to Obama 43%,

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/polls/pdfs/surveyusa-indiana-polls-obama-clinton-april25to27-2008.pdf

[MrCTLib]

101. ....

This is good news even if she doesn't win. Close the gap by single digits when Obama was suppose to blow her out. Lessen Obama's popular vote count. Hell Hillary might be even up in popular votes at the end without FL or Michigan.

[Zhade]

117. "Popular vote" does not decide the nomination. Never has.

NT!

[demo dutch]

119. Yes and that needs to change, we need to get with the rest of the world!

Proprtional representation and get rid of the archaic electoral system

[Zhade]

121. That's a worthy discussion, for the NEXT round of primaries.

NT!

[New Dawn]

103. "Survey USA" is a Republican polling organization

[demo dutch]

104. self delete

[goodgd_yall]

120. Oh, how funny.

It's had the most accurate polling for these past many months.

[Maribelle]

105. Rise, Hillary. Rise

Thanks for the post, and thanks also to Dr. Maya Angelou.

[Zhade]

118. Lies, Hillary Lies.

TUZLA!

[ImpeechBush]

106. Uh oh. Time for another Sargeant Schultz speech from Obama

"I know naaathing. I saw naaaathing. I heard naaaathing."

[Hippo_Tron]

107. I'm calling it Obama by 8-10 points

I don't make exact predictions because those lead to 100's of threads about rounding and "double digits".

[GetTheRightVote]

113. NC will go for Obama do not doubt it and he will be the Dem Nominee

Go Obama Go

[Gore1FL]

122. Cool

he is 15% over what he needs.