How in the world is Obama not considered the presumptive nominee on GD P ?

[Bread and Circus]

First, everyone needs to head over to http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/ and give Slate's "delegate calculator" a once over. It's easy to use and the results are very clear.

Using tonight's numbers (with Clinton picking up 16 net delegates in Pennsylvania), giving them a tie in Guam, Clinton +4 in Indiana and Obama +20 in North Carolina, you end up with a difference of +171 elected delegates in Obama's favor. He will likely be better than where he was before Pennsylvania's vote.

At that point, Clinton will be behind by 171 delegates with only 220 delegates up for grabs. She will have to win roughly 78%+ of the remaining delegates after the polls in North Carolina close.

That's just not going to happen.

Clinton might do better than +4 in Indiana and better than -20 in North Carolina but I doubt it will be that much. And even if they tie in Guam, Indiana, and North Carolina (dream on) she will still have to make up 150+1 delegates in the remaining contests. That means after NC she will have to win 68% of the vote. Again, considering Obama is doing well in many of the remaining states, that is not going to happen even if she totally and utterly blows him out of the water in Kentucky and West Virginia (which likely she will).

By my estimates using the Slate calculator, Obama will be up by about 150 delegates, which is where we are right now.

I'm figuring he will be around 1700 delegates +/- 15. He currently has 223 Superdelegates, so if that holds steady (and there's no reason to think it won't) he will be at 1923 delegates. So of the remaining SD's out there, he will need around 100 delegates, which is not too hard to imagine considering he will be ahead in delegates and states won by that time. Even if you include Michigan and Florida and somehow give delegates proportional to vote, Obama would still be ahead in pledged delegates and need even less SD's to reach 2025.

The only thing that will throw any of this off is if all the superdelegates reconsidered their voteds and changed their votes en masse to nominate Clinton. This is highly improbable.

So, by all reasonable and foreseeable assumptions, Obama will be the nominee.

The alternative will be Obama winning the elected delegate race but somehow being robbed of the nomination by superdelegates. This is a remote but real possibility. However, it would be so bad for the party that it would be like Gore running on a third party ticket. It would literally be suicide. A lot of people will "vote for whoever" but we all know elections are won and lost on slim margins. Enough people will be "pissed off" and stay home that it will put a lot of seats in jeopardy.

So I have to ask, considering the stakes, why hasn't Obama been declared the presumptive nominee on DU?

Clinton has no reasonable chance of becoming President in 2008. She either cannot win the nomination or she will win it under dubious circumstances that will doom her in the general election. It's just not tenable to consider her viable at this point.

Obama is still viable but Clinton's further pursuit jeopardizes his chances by most reasonable assessments. Despite the "trial by fire makes Obama stronger" argument, on all other accounts the longer this goes on, the more likely we are to lose the general election altogether.

This makes Hillary a "spoiler" candidate at this point. And if this is her intention, then she means to get John McCain elected. So, on many grounds support of Clinton by DU is essentially actively campaigning against the presumptive nominee. That's against the rules as they are currently stated. The key word is "presumptive" and by my argument, we can "presume" Obama will be the nominee. However, apparently on DU this is officially disputed because the flame on both sides has been allowed to go on.

So, I have to ask what reasonable argument can be made that Obama is NOT the legitimate presumptive nominee at this point? And if under those circumstances (basically the superdelegates going against the elected delegate totals), can it not be said it puts the Democratic party in an untenable anti-democratic position?

P.S. Sorry for my ramblings...it's late, I threw this together only because I'm kind of shocked at what the delegate situation will look like after North Carolina. It's going to be like a football game in the 4th quarter at the 2 minute warning with Clinton being down by 4 touchdowns and a field goal.

[kid a]

1. how did you get in my head and take notes all day? nt

[smalll]

2. In his Edict of the 27th of February, "A Few Reminders," Skinner makes clear that...

for DU purposes, there IS no "presumptive nominee" UNTIL THE OTHER CANDIDATE WITHRDRAWS FROM THE RACE. (And even then, there will be a one week grace period.) Take a look, it's pinned to the top of GDP.

[lapfog_1]

3. I slightly more pessimistic numbers show Obama needs 110-115 Supers... - n/t

[Bread and Circus]

5. You might be right but the magnitude and message is the same.

[wisteria]

4. Because we have had more respect for her than she has had for any one else- but no more. n/t

[TragedyandHope]

6. He is the presumptive nominee according to all the GD-P Straw Polls