Obama Needs ONLY 43 More Unpledged Superdelegates-Not 100, Not 60, Just 43...

[kpete]

OBAMA: 43 SDs TO CLINCH
by Canadian4Obama
Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 09:27:23 PM PDT

Obama needs only 43 more unpledged superdelegates to clinch the nomination. That's right. Not 100, not 60. Just 43. At 43 more currently-named, unpledged superdelegates, Obama and his supporters can claim that Hillary Clinton cannot win.

Here's why:

If you've played strategic boardgames, you know that the cardinal rule is that you declare victory and stop playing when your win is possible and your opponent's is not. At that point, your opponent becomes irrelevant. Remember McCain vs. Huckabee?

305 UNPLEDGED SUPERDELEGATES IS A MYTH. Please repeat this over and over. There are only 240 undeclared Superdelegates, because 65 are Add-Ons, and their selection process is not arbitrary.

When Obama wins another 43 superdelegates, although he has not yet reached 2024 delegates, his supporters will be able to argue that as a matter of practicality, Hillary Clinton no longer has a viable path to 2024 delegates.

Read why at:
(lots of charts, stats, info)
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/24/02723/7112/307/502085

[NJmaverick]

1. A very valid point

[Triana]

2. interesting...

..thanks!

[Vinca]

3. That could happen within a matter of hours. The SDs

will probably move after NC.

[KittyWampus]

5. you mean the way they were supposed to move after PA?

[Vinca]

7. They were? I thought they would probably wait for an Obama

landslide to move and that will be North Carolina. Pennsylvania was a given for Hillary, although it's kind of surprising she didn't do better.

[tekisui]

8. He's gotten 9 this past week, 2 yesterday.

[Dawgs]

15. They don't all have to move at once.

It's projected that he could get as many as 25 in the next 12 days.

[tekisui]

4. Thanks! I didn't know that 65 were add-ons.

So when he hits a total 276 Superdelegates, he has it.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

6. You're nothing but a factmonger.

[kpete]

10. thanks

that is quite a nice thing to say...kp

[MindMatter]

20. Reality-obsessed

[mkultra]

25. what does ad-ons mean

please explain.

[Pavlovs DiOgie]

9. K&R!

It's good to have the math facts out there.

[WillyT]

11. K & R !!!

:bounce::kick::bounce:

[phrigndumass]

12. This does make a whole helluva lot of sense! K/R

Thanks kpete!

:hi:

[TheDoorbellRang]

18. The new Huckabee index!

It looks like what you've shown, except also separating out the add-on delegates from the pre-existing ones. Seems we'll have to pay a bit more attention to these little rascally add-ons. :-)

[phrigndumass]

29. We can call it Huck 2.0 ... The Upgrade!

Most of those add-ons won't be chosen until each state's convention, right? We'll have a presumptive nominee before then.

:hi:

[Window]

13. K/R.

:kick:

[Crabby Appleton]

14. I don't think Hillery will drop out of the race before an actual vote

of delegates at the convention. Super delegates can change their minds about the intention to vote a particular candidate. I think Obama will eventually get the nomination, but neither candidate will go into the convention with enough actually committed delegates to win - not until there is an actually convention delegate vote.

[mckeown1128]

16. haha... you beat to posting it here...

It is a very interesting read. Too bad it can't be explained in a soundbite... so the media will never mention it. They will continue to go with the "they are only 150 delegates apart" talking point.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

17. Half that number would remove the Clinton thumb from the scale.

Obama is only 20+ SD's behind Clinton at this point. Down from a whopping 150+.

That thumb is being forcibly lifted from the scale.

That thumb has always skewed perceptions of this race.

[kentuck]

19. Excellent...

I's all in the numbers.

[nolabels]

21. Gee, can't it go on a little longer?

In the last few days the tinge on things has started to change. All those obnoxious people are starting to seem so much smaller and irrelevant.

After May 6th how will it all seem, guess we just get to wait and see :-)

[thevoiceofreason]

22. Add in Wu, now it's 42!

Hey, that rhymes!

[wowimthere]

23. Obama has 20 SDs or so in the wings...

They are going to trickle in. No bombardment. It is the campaign's strategy to counter any momentum she gets from winning PA or in case she should win Indiana.

[DemVet]

24. Superdelegates don't vote until the Convention

Who they SAY they are going to vote for until then is irrelevant. They reserve the right to change their minds until they cast their ballots.

[mkultra]

26. what is an Add-on SD?

please explain?

[DerekJ]

32. Yah!! What is that?!!

[jackson_dem]

27. Assuming FL and MI are disenfranchised... (yes, I know FL and MI having a say terrifies Obamanation)

[hill_win_2008]

28. WTF?

The only "myth" is that Obama has 100% chance and Hillary has 0% chance.

Here's a thought: let's wait for the vote.

[sandnsea]

34. So they can overturn it with superdelegates?

That's their plan. She can't get enough delegates to overtake his lead. So you're saying let's wait for the vote, in order for the Clintons to overturn that same vote.

[krkaufman]

30. All I care about right now is the elected pledged delegate majority ...

... and Obama crossing that line. Once he has the majority of delegates, the race is over and superdelegates will start coming out in droves.

[Kurovski]

31. K&R. (nt)

[Raine]

33. Thanks

for posting this! :thumbsup:

[ClayZ]

35. K and R

[boppers]

36. Math skills bad, they are.

Runinng on Hope that the math is wrong, and belief that emotions can change numbers....

Well, that's why they lost.