With 98.4% reporting at the Penn. Department of State website:

[JackBeck]

OBAMA, BARACK (DEM)

1,027,315 45.7%

CLINTON, HILLARY (DEM)

1,222,919 54.3%


8.6% difference.

Not double digits.

Edit for link: http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1

[thewiseguy]

1. That's odd. His totals on that site are more than his totals on CNN...

Can you put a link in your OP?

[rug]

2. Is double digits a fetish we must worship?

[thewiseguy]

4. Ask the Hillary supporters.

[rug]

11. It's Obama supporters who set that bar. She won. Handily.

[Guaranteed]

17. The bar is 2025. She can not hit it, not with these numbers.

Those are FACTS.

[rug]

37. Neither can he.

That's a fact.

[DUyellow]

18. You are so right... Wolfons: "This is a delegate race"

[Gore1FL]

19. Actually it is the big money donations that set that bar

The math set the bar much higher.

She actually has to win the rest of the contests by 69% and get 50% of the remaining delegates to win. The biggest remaining state has trailing considerably, and she has no cash to counter it.

This is more done now than it was after WI, and it was done then.

[Hugabear]

31. Actually, I think mathematics set the bar

As someone in another thread pointed out, Hillary would need to win by 34% in each of the remaining primaries to overtake Obama's lead.

[rug]

40. What percentage does Obama need to win without supers?

[Zhade]

36. Keep dreaming, Obama will be the nominee when you wake up.

NT!

[rug]

42. I'm not Rip van Winkle.

[JackBeck]

6. We're not constantly re-defining the end game.

[Cant trust em]

7. I think it's a symbolic hurdle

Somehow its a psychological dividing line between what is significant and less so. Even when I spend money, $10 is like a threshold of what I'm willing to buy on a whim and what I'll think first if I really want it.

[DUyellow]

27. i'll give you that

[HCE SuiGeneris]

32. Did you say double digits?

[MadBadger]

3. Hmmm, thats different than CNN

They see it as 1.239 million to his 1.023 million

[Lucinda]

12. MSNBC has the same numbers CNN does

The state page may not be updating overnight?

[MadBadger]

15. Thats not it. The numbers are fundamentally different

THe state site has more votes for Obama.

[Lucinda]

41. Their site shows a different set of numbers on one of their other linked pages.

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=12&ElectionID=27
CLINTON, HILLARY (DEM) 1,231,557 54.3%
OBAMA, BARACK (DEM) 1,038,242 45.7%

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1
CLINTON, HILLARY (DEM) 1,231,814 54.3%
OBAMA, BARACK (DEM) 1,038,373 45.7%


It's most likely just a clerical error. Their site was down earlier tonight too.

[rodeodance]

21. you prediced obama would win by a half % I recall.

[MadBadger]

26. And I was wrong...so shoot me.

[JackBeck]

51. Explain to all of us how Hillary can win?

Seriously, in your opinion, how can Mrs. Rodham-Clinton secure the Democratic nomination?

[Hepburn]

5. Wow...what a loss for HilLIARy....from a 20 pt lead to this.

She is just such a loser.

[BzaDem]

9. At least she didn't actually lose.

[Gore1FL]

25. It depends...

She gpot less than she needed to win in all the remaining contests in her most supportive state,

[Hepburn]

79. Depends on how you look at it...

...Obama out-foxed her and got her to spend a hell of a lot of money in a state she was going to win anyhow. LOL...like I said, she lost.

[dugggy]

22. Hillary now has NEW MOmentum

This win means we go all the way to the convention floor.
There the super delegates will put her over the bar.

[tokenlib]

30. Yeah, SD's want the party to implode...

But if you think the SD's can do that and we'll all live happily ever after...good luck...

[Zhade]

39. HAHAHAHAHA!!! Oh, the wishful thinking is cute.

But pointless.

She won't be the nom.

[Hepburn]

80. What have you been smoking?

The SDs have been breaking for Obama...:rofl:

[Coexist]

8. but they won't change it - why?

[TheDoorbellRang]

10. CNN's numbers are higher for Clinton and lower for Obama. hmmm

With 99% reporting:

Clinton 1,239,424 55%

Obama 1,023,350 45%

I had just noticed this oddity, myself.

[JackBeck]

16. If Clinton camp wants to be specific about single and double digit leads,

I think we need to accurately look at the real figures, instead of rounding up, like CNN.

[kevinbgoode]

54. CNN apparently doesn't know how to do round numbers

Apparently they don't hire kindergarten graduates.

[TheDoorbellRang]

58. Usually the differences are proportional, tho

Here's CNN at 12:26

Clinton 1,249,577 55%
Obama 1,034,686 45%

Here's the state's total:

CLINTON, HILLARY (DEM)
1,232,042 54.3%
OBAMA, BARACK (DEM)
1,038,480 45.7%

How can they be higher for one and lower for the other?

[rocktivity]

13. 31 plus-point winning margin = blowout for Hillary

30 points = victory for Hillary

10 - 29 points = wash for Hillary

6 - 9 points = humiliation for Hillary

1 - 5 points = the end for Hillary

:headbang:
rocknation

[Cant trust em]

28. I would have made 6-9 = bad for Hillary

the end and humiliation are the same thing.

[jgraz]

29. Except...

It's not possible to humiliate someone who has no shame.

[Cant trust em]

72. That was a good one. NT

[FunkyLeprechaun]

43. I said to my mum that if she got less than 10%

In a state that had favoured her nearly 30% a month ago, she should think about dropping out. Yes she won, but won by only 8? Obama looks to cancel her win out in NC and even in Indiana.

She has no money and she's resorted to begging tactics.

Obama might even beat her in Delegates once again in Penn., when the final results are certified. Happened in NH, happened in TX, etc.

If I were a Clinton supporter, I wouldn't gloat at these numbers.

[Guaranteed]

14. No, cuz you round Barack's down, Clinton's up,

and then you add on 5 points to Clinton's total.

That's a 15-point win!

[SoCalDem]

24. And when the numbers come in from Neptune, she'll be at 117%

:)

[Swamp Rat]

33. LOL!

:D

[guruoo]

20. Obamas trashtalkers claimed landslide was in the works.

Maybie next time.
good night.

[Cant trust em]

23. Some were. This came out better than I predicted actually.

I figured it would be 12.

[Zhade]

45. Yeah, they were as accurate as those who said clinton would clinch it on ST.

Her narrow win was expected.

[JackBeck]

49. There are notorious trashtalkers on both sides

Especially among those who think they are above it, yet have consistently slummed day after day in creating manufactured drama just for the attention.

Thankfully many of us would rather not associate with them or feed their delusions of grandeur. The facts of this race are on our side and the majority want it to be over soon.

But you're right. A landslide was predicted many months ago and it didn't happen. Mrs. Rodham-Clinton lost a major battle tonight and will continue to lose. What sucks for her is that her campaign is millions of dollars in debt. Maybe she can lend herself another 5 mil. to ease the blow.

[guruoo]

86. Oh yeeeeah?

[betharina]

34. i like these numbers

Democratic Primary votes: 2,269,799
Republican Primary votes: 773,811

or does that not matter anymore?:shrug:

[HCE SuiGeneris]

38. They are excellent numbers.

And a belated welcome to DU! :hi:

[betharina]

48. thanks!

[SoCalDem]

47. we won't know until Nov

many of "ours" could be turned OFF.. and most of Mccain's this time were uninspired..habit voters..

By Nov, the republicans will have a bigger turn out..adn if we "lose" 1/2 of ours..who knows:shrug:

[4themind]

63. It matters a little less now, then earlier, because McCain's clinched it

although in the earlier states this trend was similar as well, which bodes well for democrats provided we can unite at the end.

[bigbrother05]

35. Thanks for posting, been watching it all night

Think I trust the Sec'y of State over the MSM, they are the ones that will put out the final numbers. It's another instance where they put out numbers that will be in the headlines that won't be corrected until much later, ala TX. A victory of less than 9% is not as much to crow about, symbolic to be sure, but less than advertised.


PA SoS 98.80% in CNN Now 99%

1,230,822 54.3% 1,248,699 55% Clinton
1,037,420 45.7% 1,034,383 45% Obama

still 8.6% 10%

Pretty interesting

[JackBeck]

50. Anytime, bro.

I just can't trust the MSM, so I follow online.

[RememberWellstone]

44. She won.

Quit trying to downplay the obvious.

[Zhade]

46. And yet will still not be the nominee.

Enjoy the temporary victory!

[kevinbgoode]

52. Not many voting in the Republican primary

Weren't there any other offices or races on their side?

[Coexist]

53. 98.91% - 54.3% 45.7%

and from a diarist at kos:

40 of the 111 outstanding districts (0 / 0)
are in Philly. Another 19 are in Chester. Both areas are Obama territory.

I feel pretty comfortable saying this thing is 8 points

[bobbert]

55. great info

it will be 8% by morning

[Patsy Stone]

56. 0.3

is all it takes for an 8 no one can deny. :)

[Coexist]

57. that would be sweet - even though it would make my 9 prediction wrong

but I will happily take it!

[Patsy Stone]

59. Nice pick!

I said 6, so I was really wrong. :)

[Coexist]

61. latest update only has her up 10 delegates!

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/22/11912/6533/642/500733

[Patsy Stone]

65. There is only a

193,562 vote difference now according to PA, and this diary was based on a 214,510 vote difference (20,948 more) in calculating total percentage. I'm not sure, but I don't think the 10 delegate difference in the updated diary accounted for the state assigned delegates based on total vote percentages (55 total). 35 "at-large" delegates and 20 PLEOs.

So, it might be less than 10 when all is said and done.

ed: it's possible I misread the diary, because it's late and I need to go to bed.

[Coexist]

67. I tried to go to bed,

but hubby was snoring terribly, so I came back out to wait until I am exhausted!

[Patsy Stone]

69. LOL

I just heard that very noise coming from the other room as I wrote that last post, and I wondered if I should go in there or not. Then it stopped. I'm going in, but I think I'll check to see if he's still breathing. :)

Good night.

[jbardin]

60. discrepancy is lancaster county

according to state website: Obama 40628, Clinton 22710
according to CNN: Obama 27126, Clinton 22710

13,000 votes increases his percentage to 45.6% from 45.2%. Who knows which is correct.

[thewiseguy]

64. Thanks dude

[Patsy Stone]

66. Welcome to DU!

:hi:

[Coexist]

68. I wish I knew.

[jbardin]

77. cnn may be right.

lancaster county's site is consistent with CNN. available at
http://www.co.lancaster.pa.us/lanco/cwp/view.asp?a=564&q=411897&lancoNav=|&lancoNav_GID=1004

Candidate Votes
Barack Obama 27126
Hillary Clinton 22710
Write-In 0
by District 49836

[DerekJ]

83. I agree. The county website has a full breakdown by district. It will be hard to mess that up with

big of a margin.

I guess state site is wrong, CNN is right. :(


http://66.216.166.82/PubICE/default.asp?Category=VotesLC&Service=result&offc=0845&bkg=USA_Flag&ele=P&Prty=Dem&LOP=D&da=Dem&cat=F&ret=menu&rcat=F

[Eurobabe]

78. Wow, who knew there were so many SMART people

in Lancaster Co.!

Hi from another smart county - Chester. Obama 55 - Cliton 44

[DerekJ]

82. Jbardin, A big welcome to DU. Thanks for finding it, I was going to go county by county to find

the discrepancy. You saved me ton of work.

[JackBeck]

62. Still 8.6%.

Once again...not "double digits".

Look, we weren't the ones to place and then move the goal posts. Y'all did.

[FlyingSquirrel]

70. CNN sez 1,249,936 to 1,035,230 -- 54.7% to 45.3% (9.4% difference)

still "99%" reporting.

[Guaranteed]

74. Which still would not be double-digits. nt

[MadBadger]

71. I believe the CNN numbers are right

The state numbers from PA overreport Lancaster County. They say there are a total of 63,000 democratic votes while CNN says its closer to 49,000. Considering there are roughly 80,000 dems in the county itself, I would have to say that the 49,000 number is more in line with the PA turnout.

[JackBeck]

73. Something that's comforting

Over 2 million voted for a Democratic candidate, while roughly 750 thousand voted for a Repug in Penn.

Notice a trend?

[Eurobabe]

75. Halle-fucking-lujah!

I say it will narrow further, but the media is all over this like a cheap suit.

[mystieus]

76. actually..

they are rounding before subtracting.. which is an odd way of doing it. the real difference is ~9% (9.4 exactly), but the way the media does it its ~10% . though, its the way they've always done it.. oh well.

[johnnydrama]

81. NC

a 14 pt win in NC would equal her PA delegate count.

And about a 16 pt win would equal her in voting totals.

[kmsarvis]

84. yep!

And I'm going door to door the next two weekends to help make sure Obama gets that 16+ point victory.

[mystieus]

85. kmsarvis , yes sir!