*** Hillary Urgently Needs Early Projection Tonight ***

[Khaotic]

Bottomline, we're not seeing the numbers others are seeing.

Judging from the unseen numbers reflected in the predictions pundits are throwing out there, Hillary is going to win PA.

However, we don't know by how much.

I think it goes without saying that for signs to point toward Hillary blowing out Obama in PA, every network will have an immediate projection giving it to Hillary at the stroke of 8 p.m. Eastern Time.

If you're tuned in at that time and the networks aren't ready to call it, then we will already know that Obama has made it close enough to get a good slug of the pledged delegates out of PA.

If Hillary blows out Obama in the exit polls across the board across the state then look for every network to project her as a winner at the tick of 8 p.m.

Either way, we'll know more than usual early in the night. No early projection for Hillary will equal a close race in PA and will basically be a victory for Obama.

[goldcanyonaz]

1. I highly doubt there will be an early prediction, regardless of who wins. They want ratings.

[ginnyinWI]

3. Ah but they also are desperate to be the first to call it. nt

[truedelphi]

7. They want the militarist neocon to win

And they have been setting us up for the notion that early projections are acceptable ever since primary seson began.

Early projections were acceptable in states like Califonria which had paper ballots.

It is not acceptable anywhere where there are electronic voting machines, like PA.

[goldcanyonaz]

10. But, you had no problem with their speedy S.C. prediction?

[truedelphi]

22. No I have had a problem with any and all early projections

Though less of a problem should the state in question in the election be using verifiable paper ballots.

My belief is that they are setting us up so that once again it will be the WH who decides in November whether the Dem or the Repug candidate won.

I have a problem with any early projections. But if they are occurring in a state where paper ballots are used, I am not as worried about dishonesty.

And I confess, red-faced, that the week of the SC primary, I was taking the week off from politics -I really didn't focus on it.

Before i die I wanna see two things
Paper ballots and only paper ballots being used in any and all elections

No way that the media can determine who is the winner - as happened in Nov 2004 with Andy Card announcing the winner while the news media was too exhausted to do more than agree, and while most voters were already asleep!

[Terran]

2. "blowing out Obama"?

Not according to any poll I've seen in the last, oh, 30 days.

[Deja Q]

4. Well, if she wants to blow him, who would want to post a poll about it?

:hide:

[Khaotic]

11. Many factors could result in a blowout

We don't know what the impact of Limbaugh's Operation Chaos will be. I think we're kidding ourselves to think that hundreds of thousands of Republicans in PA have seen the light and turned Democratic. They haven't.

Lintball's efforts were young back during the Mississippi primary, but the exist polls from that state did show that there were a decent amount of people who identified themselves as Republicans voted for Hillary, but turned around and said they wouldn't vote for her in the general election.

That Mississippi exit polls vendicated Lintball and gave him reason to dig in and push PA rethugs hard to get registered as Democrats and to vote for Hillary.

For the week or so prior to the deadline for registering in PA came, Lintball hammered and hammered his rationale forward. Chances are very high that he was more successful in PA than he was in MS.

On top of that Hillary has been receiving most of the late deciders.

There's also the case of the location.

Folks, face it ... we're talking about the very heart of Appalachia where ANY candidate from either party who isn't white has a very challenging task at winning.

The odds are stacked against Obama (whom I support hardcore), but there's always the youth.

In every state they've been counted out and come back to show the country that they're here and have a voice. They could really make a difference, and I'm sure they will.

That difference might not mean that Obama wins, but could keep him from being slaughtered.

If Obama actually wins PA then I'll be shocked out of my mind.

That will be a very good thing.

[SoonerPride]

5. They will call a 7% (net 8 delegate win) a blowout.

Just watch.

They will re-define the goals in order to keep her campaign going.

It's a ratings bo-fucking-nanza.

[Khaotic]

15. Maybe ...

some of Hillary's drones will attempt to do that, but I don't think they'll get away with it.

If Obama walks away with more than 70 delegates it will be hard to ignore how much closer he is to 50%+1.

With every primary that goes by that keeps her within double digits, it basically says that the remaining primaries have to result in Hillary mauling Obama.

I mean, can she expect to beat Obama by 80%+ in N.C.?

Basically she'll be hanging around with hopes that Obama self implodes with a scandal that forces him to drop out. She could suspend her candidacy and accomplish the same thing without putting herself in debt like she's doing now.

[book_worm]

6. Hillary won by 10 in Ohio and that state wasn't called until later

But then too, Obama did OK in the delegate fight in Ohio as well.

[BzaDem]

8. That's not how they do it.

They only call immediately if a) the margin is big, but more importantly B) if the margin was expected to be big, and the exit polls just confirm that.

For example, the South Carolina margin was 28 points, but more importantly, it was expected to be huge. It was called immediately.

Mississippi wasn't called immediately, since the margins in the exit polls were less than 20 points (slightly lower than expected), but it was called soon after, since both the exit polls and the expectations still predicted a big margin.

With New York, the margin was 17%. But the key is Hillary was expected to win by around that margin, so they projected immediately.

In PA, the margin is not expected to be big, so they probably won't project no matter what happens. Even if the exit polls show a 30% blowout, they will still probably wait, since it isn't what they expected and they want to make sure there wasn't some methodology problem in conducting the exit poll.

[Khaotic]

13. I'll stand by this ...

If they don't project in the first hour then I say Obama has kept it below 12, possibly below 10.

Just my opinion.

[BzaDem]

14. Maybe that's true. But there are really only two options.

Project immediately (if margin is big and expected to be big), OR, wait until there is overwhelming evidence from actual votes that one or another won. Even if the margin is big, if they don't project immediately, they will still wait until there is overwhelming evidence. However, you are correct in that if Hillary's margin is bigger than 12, there is more likely to be overwhelming evidence earlier on than if the margin is closer.

[Jack Bone]

9. they better call it by 9pm est..'cuz I'm switching to Big Brother then

Priorities!! :hi:

[NightWatcher]

12. I think they'll give it to her early, but the final percentages wont be know till tomorrow prob

[Khaotic]

17. If they give it to her early ...

Then for me it's time to shut the television off and call it a night.

The only thing that makes me a little reluctant to do that is for fear of missing a possible Obama speech that rivals the one he gave after the New Hampshire loss.

It floors me how he was able to step back up after that loss in N.H. and to give one of the best speeches I've heard in my lifetime.

Even after a PA loss, Obama could deliver yet another monumental speech redefining himself again.

He continues to amaze.

[Auntie Bush]

16. Do you actually eat your own BS?

How disgusting! :puke:

[Khaotic]

18. No

But if you're into BS go have a look at 2 girls and a cup.

I've heard it's for people like yourself.

[Secret_Society]

19. Watch for MSNBC's wording...

They call sooner than CNN. If they say "too early to call" as opposed to "too close to call" the margin may still be quite large. I watch way to much TV.

[Khaotic]

21. too true

[SoCalDem]

20. Fingers crossed here in CA

:evilgrin:

[Khaotic]

23. Given early exit poll numbers

It looks like it will be a long night.

I would really be shocked if there's a projection by any network within the first hour.

Hillary will have to wait a long time to make her victory speech.

It will be great if Obama can give us a speech like he did after N.H.