A Layman's View of What Is To Come

[kentuck]

People are standing in line to vote even as we speak. PA has turned into a very important barometer for the Democratic nomination for President. The prevalent consensus seems to be that Obama will lose but nobody knows by how much? Of course, if Obama were to win, that would be the end of the road for Hillary.

However, PA is much like OH which is much like West Virginia, which is much like KY, which is much like Indiana. This is all a geographical part of the Rust Belt and the coal-mining industry. In this part of the country, the Clintons are very popular. These people vote jobs and economy over everything else. They remember the good economy of the Clinton years and that is paramount in their choice for President.I would be surprised if Hillary were to lose any of these states.

However, contrary to the conventional wisdom, the pressure will not be on Hillary, it will be on Obama. Especially if she wins PA by double digits. Then the spotlight shifts to North Carolina. Obama is expected to win NC. If he were to lose NC, then the whole debate would turn upside down. The remaining Super Delegates would be pressured to vote for Hillary. The race would be wide open.

But, if Obama were to miraculously win PA, then the game is over. The Super Delegates will swarm to his side. The writing will be on the wall. But it appears today that this game is far from over.

[rhett o rick]

1. I don't understand your math if Clinton wins PA. Could you please show your math on how Clinton

can win. Does it count on super-duper-delegates changing their minds?

[kentuck]

2. The one or two super delegates switching here and there....

is not that significant. If Hillary wins PA big and then were to upset Obama in NC, the remaining SDs would flock to Hillary's side and she would surge ahead of Obama in total delegates. That is how the nominee will be chosen. There are approximately 300 super delegates left to vote. Nobody has a lock on this race. Nobody yet has the magic number of delegates. Florida and Michigan still have to be resolved. It is not going away.

[chemenger]

3. Don't dismiss PA so quickly.

I've seen and spoken to far more Obama supporters here in Western PA than HRC supporters. Despite conventional wisdom and the polls, I predict that younz might be suprised at the final outcome here in PA when all is said and done.

[kentuck]

4. I hope you are right.

I would like to see Obama end it here today. However, if Hillary wins PA big, then the focus shifts to NC and the pressure will be on Obama to win NC. If he were to lose there, the whole election would turn upside down.

[rhett o rick]

5. Agree. And the more people talk about Clinton having a chance of winning, esp with smoke and mirror

the more people (new people) come out to support Obama. It's time to throw off the yoke of the corporate influence (DLC) in the party.

[kentuck]

6. The yoke of the DLC ?

I agree with you. I hope it happens. But, we shall have to wait until after tonights votes are counted to consider that wonderful option.

[kentuck]

7. kick

:kick: