Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Obama 49/Clinton 46-Public Policy Polling-Final PA (Most Accurate This Election Cycle)

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
kpete Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:14 AM
Original message
Obama 49/Clinton 46-Public Policy Polling-Final PA (Most Accurate This Election Cycle)
Edited on Mon Apr-21-08 09:16 AM by kpete
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_0421...


Public Policy Polling, the most accurate pollster this election cycle, has released their final poll for Pennsylvania: they are projecting

Obama 49

Clinton 46


Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
malik flavors Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:15 AM
Response to Original message
1. Wow. I guess we'll wait and see.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
scheming daemons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:15 AM
Response to Original message
2. This is good....
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
nebula Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:19 PM
Response to Reply #2
111. yes!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
truebrit71 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:16 AM
Response to Original message
3. That would be superb. The final nail in the Hillary coffin.
Let's hope so!!!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
meow mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 02:18 PM
Response to Reply #3
100. need to silver the eyes, pour salt in the mouth..
Edited on Mon Apr-21-08 02:18 PM by meow mix
shes a monster after all
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
backscatter712 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 03:02 PM
Response to Reply #100
104. I thought it was wooden stake through the heart...
garlic stuffed in her mouth, head cut off to make sure she stays dead. :P
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bilgewaterbill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:20 PM
Response to Reply #104
112. Heart?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Robbins Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:16 AM
Response to Original message
4. PPP
I would like to believe them but what Is their track record In the primarys?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ps1074 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:19 AM
Response to Reply #4
12. They nailed South Carolina, Wisconsin, Texas and Ohio
The only pollster to predict the big Obama win in Wisconsin. Sofar they've been right on the money.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
me b zola Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:31 AM
Response to Reply #12
71. Be still my heart!
I have been bracing for a single digit win for Clinton--and all of the insane spinning from her campaign in the aftermath. I have been guarded about optimistic predictions of an outright win by Obama. Damn...do I dare to hope that this pollster will prove to be correct again?

:makeitso:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJmaverick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:17 AM
Response to Original message
5. Excellent, Obama really doesn't need to win
just keep the percentage to single digits, but a win would be sweet.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Citizen Kang Donating Member (424 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:22 AM
Response to Reply #5
20. Yeah, but it would be nice
if he could seal the deal tomorrow instead of having to wait 2 more weeks. I can't take more Rovian attacks from a fellow "Democrat" much longer.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJmaverick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:42 AM
Response to Reply #20
44. I agree
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
speedoo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:25 AM
Response to Reply #5
26. An actual win by Obama completely undercuts Hillary's arguments.
For staying in the race. She obviously could stay in, but her financial situation would become even more dire, as she would have no argument to offer for getting contributions.

It's been over since Super Tuesday, but this would be the last nail in the coffin.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
thereismore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:17 AM
Response to Original message
6. Dammit the polls are all over the place, and so are touch screen machines. Damn, damn. nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
wiggs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 04:00 PM
Response to Reply #6
109. Good point. Both need to be in place. nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:17 AM
Response to Original message
7. Most Accurate ??? Really??? No. REALLY?
People Polling Poodles(PPP) is in the bottom tier of pollsters this elections cycle

They are in Zogby/LA Times/ARG territory.


http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/surveyusa-report-car...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:20 AM
Response to Reply #7
15. FYI, when you're evaluating pollsters, you might not want to take another pollster's word for it.
Sure, they could possibly be right, but the conflict of interest here is as massive as it gets.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:22 AM
Response to Reply #15
19. Sure...I would rather take the OP's word....
LOL
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:24 AM
Response to Reply #15
24. That's Objective Information
Pollster A and Pollster B takes several polls... It can be independtly verified who is more accurate...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:26 AM
Response to Reply #24
27. absolutely, but do you want pollster B verifying pollster A's accuracy?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:28 AM
Response to Reply #27
31. Sure, why not. What is the worst that can happen?
I think they would have a major credibility problem if it was found not to be true.

Don't you think Zogby would be yelling from the mountain tops?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:29 AM
Response to Reply #27
32. Doesn't Really Matter
As long as I can see the math...

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
high density Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:36 AM
Response to Reply #7
38. That's data from mid February
It seems stale, to say the least.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
pnorman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:27 AM
Response to Reply #7
93. I was really hoping that survey to be accurate.
But thanks for that link. I'll study it carefully, as well as the criticisms of it elsewhere on this thread.

pnorman
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:17 AM
Response to Original message
8. "Romney Takes Lead In Florida"
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
panader0 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:18 AM
Response to Original message
9. (Grinning at my monitor)
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
thesubstanceofdreams Donating Member (625 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:18 AM
Response to Original message
10. Big sample! 2338 interviews

MoE 2%. I still think Hillary is ahead, but hopefully this indicates her victory will be minimal.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Zachstar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:23 AM
Response to Reply #10
21. That is good news indeed!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
meow mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:11 AM
Response to Reply #10
57. nice
!!!
:7
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Coexist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:19 AM
Response to Original message
11. I was just reading a diary on Kos that said PPP stood their ground
when we all laughed at them last time.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/21/92731/8608/422/...

SurveyUSA has been callled the "gold standard" many times this year, but PPP has also earned deserved recognition.

They reported the most accurate results for the South Carolina, Wisconsin, Texas, and Ohio primaries.

SurveyUSA has been incredibly accurate in projecting not only the winner, but also the margin of victory, in numerous contests. Their only errors have been Missouri (Clinton by 13 pts.) and Texas (Obama by 1 pt).

But to date, PPP has achieved a perfect record, including Texas (Clinton by 6 pts.) and Ohio (Clinton by 9 pts.)

I was especially impressed by their call in Wisconsin. As you remember, the political press predicted a close contest, based on the state's large Blue-Collar demographic. In fact, four different polling outfits (ARG, Research 2000, Strategic Vision, and Rasmussen Reports) all projected a narrow single-digit outcome.

PPP initially projected a 10 pt victory, and in spite of criticism by the Media-Elite, they didn't pull back, and issued a final report, projecting a 13 point Obama victory. It's difficult to stand firm and not hedge when everyone is trashing you as an outlier.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:30 AM
Response to Reply #11
33. SUSA was most correct in OHIO. NOT PPP
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:31 AM
Response to Reply #11
35. That's Factually Incorrect
But to date, PPP has achieved a perfect record, including Texas (Clinton by 6 pts.) and Ohio (Clinton by 9 pts.)


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Florida_Rele...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:20 AM
Response to Original message
13. McCain Holds Lead in Georgia!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Galway girl Donating Member (177 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:20 AM
Response to Original message
14. Love it to be so but don't believe it
How can all the polls be so different. The poor people of PA must be the worst miondchangers in the country haha!!

Only messing . Do the right thing folks in PA end this thing tonight
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
harun Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:31 AM
Response to Reply #14
34. I hope they do (I am in PA), but I don't think it will happen. I am an
Obama supporter but Ed Rendell the Governor here is putting his political machine behind Hillary. I think she will get enough votes from this to beat Obama by 5-10%.

Obama by 10% would end this thing though, that would really be nice.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Zachstar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:21 AM
Response to Original message
16. Most polls that I have seen lately have her winning by under 10.
If he can keep it under 10 that would be GREAT.

If he keeps it under 5 he has a small change of walking away with a net delegate or two.

But overall 10 is a disaster for the Clinton campaign because she will not pick up many delegates net.

Anyway now that I have said that. Let us hope for the best and expect the worst because polls this close to the primary are not good to rely on.

Polls are good for long term planning and they worked with that because Obama put PA in play and that is good!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
thereismore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:21 AM
Response to Original message
17. MOE = 2%. over 2,000 polled. nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
yodermon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:21 AM
Response to Original message
18. I thought Survey USA was most accurate? n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:23 AM
Response to Reply #18
22. By far.
Among pollsters polling more than 5 contests this cycle.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
monicaaida Donating Member (172 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:25 AM
Response to Reply #22
25. ppp ohio
here is creditability clinton 9 point ohio lead on 3/3
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:26 AM
Response to Reply #25
28. They got lucky?
Median error in excess of 7 points.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:00 AM
Response to Reply #28
52. off by only 2% in TX, closest in Wisconsin. Maybe they're just getting better.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:02 AM
Response to Reply #52
53. By November, perhaps they can crawl out of the 2nd tier...nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
slick8790 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:13 AM
Response to Reply #53
91. Perhaps you should stop basing your references off a single chart that is over 2 months old
at this point. You're kinda making an ass out of yourself.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 12:22 PM
Response to Reply #91
97. SUSA has a PROVEN track record.
Consistantly among the most accurate.

I have a feeling they will continue that trend.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:23 AM
Response to Original message
23. PPP: off by 1% on the gap in Ohio, off by 2% in TX
Under-reported Clinton in Ohio, over-reported her support in TX.

This one's a keeper.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Ichingcarpenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:27 AM
Response to Original message
29. Sounds good but
I think it could go 4 points either way.
Gonna be an exciting night tomorrow and will
likely go late until they call it for O or C.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:27 AM
Response to Original message
30. holy crap: that sample size is 2-4 times as big as the other pollsters'.
They might actually have nailed this thing.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
mod mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:32 AM
Response to Original message
36. I really hope this one is the most accurate. Thanks kpete!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Bullet1987 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:33 AM
Response to Original message
37. PPP or SUSA? Battle of the Polls!!! One of them is wrong...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:37 AM
Response to Reply #37
39. Yeah...Most likely the Total & Complete Outlier
They are the ONLY poll to have Obama's # more than 45%.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:13 AM
Response to Reply #39
59. Their number of undecided is the smallest comparing to other polls
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:21 AM
Response to Reply #59
63. Wrong. Their Undecided Number ...
Is the same as the Quinnipiac poll (Clinton + 7) and the ARG Poll (Clinton + 13)

and just 1 less than the SUSA Poll and the Suffolk University Poll (Clinton + 6 and Clinton + 10 respectively...)


And BTW...SUSA had a sample size of 1800.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:26 AM
Response to Reply #63
67. Thats why her lead dropped by 8 in SUSA?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:30 AM
Response to Reply #67
70. Is that your explaination?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
dchill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:39 AM
Response to Original message
40. If I'm picking a poll I like, it's this one, but...
It's all about turnout. Conventional wisdom is that undecideds will go for Hillary, but it seems like her negativity is an effort to keep the vote down. I don't know what's up with that.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
george_maniakes Donating Member (831 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:40 AM
Response to Original message
41. Its still going to be Clinton by 5...undecideds will break for her...
unless the negative air war these last few days turns people off.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
mystieus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:42 AM
Response to Original message
42. Report Card
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
RUMMYisFROSTED Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:08 AM
Response to Reply #42
55. I only care about what Ron Lester & Associates has to say!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:22 AM
Response to Reply #55
64. ROFL---
:rofl: :rofl:

Ron Lester & Ass ROCKS MY WORLD.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
quakerboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 02:36 AM
Response to Reply #42
120. Meanwhile, it is now 4/22/08
not 2/20. a few things have happened since then. It would be interesting to have an updated version of that.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Bullet1987 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:42 AM
Response to Original message
43. The close race being shown by Rasmussen, Zogby, and SUSA
Doesn't rule out the possibility that Obama could tip the scales in his favor. You never know...this could be another Wisconsin.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
george_maniakes Donating Member (831 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:46 AM
Response to Reply #43
45. I cant see obama winning in penn. She loses here, its over. Every last dime shes got....
...every favor she can call in will be used here to get out the vote. Obama can afford to lose here, she cant.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Connie_Corleone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:47 AM
Response to Original message
46. Their polling size is over 2,000, which is a lot more than the other polls.
I would like it to be true, but I have to stay realistic.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ErinBerin84 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:47 AM
Response to Original message
47. I would love for it to be true,
but I'm not going to get by hopes up. If anything, it could help in the goalpost moving, making a five point Clinton victory a stunning upset. I tend to be fairly skeptical of Public Policy polling anyways.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NorthCarolina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:51 AM
Response to Original message
48. If Obama pulls a win, the media line will be
that he outspent Clinton 3 to 1 thanks to elitist latte sipping Liberals.

If he loses, even slightly, the media line will be that he was unable to close the deal even though he outspent Clinton 3 to 1.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
meow mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:56 AM
Response to Original message
49. K&R
nice
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
City Lights Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:57 AM
Response to Original message
50. Tomorrow can't come quickly enough. nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
wowimthere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:59 AM
Response to Original message
51. K&R not much for polls but Here's hoping PA votes to change this country by voting for Obama...
and a people powered movement. Leave the status quo in the dust and vote change rather than vote "been there, done that".
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:07 AM
Response to Original message
54. That was a big survey over 2300 interviews.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:11 AM
Response to Original message
56. This particular poll has the biggest sample size and fewest number of undecided!
Edited on Mon Apr-21-08 10:11 AM by thewiseguy
I want to call it an outlier but I can not ignore those two things. That sample size is just massive.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:13 AM
Response to Reply #56
60. exactly. 4 times as big as Zogby, way more than twice the size of the others
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:17 AM
Response to Reply #60
61. Their number of undecided fell by 9% comparing to the last poll
That did not change Obama's advantage. With so much fuss being made about the undecided voters breaking for Hillary, it could be like a 50/50 split.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:20 AM
Response to Reply #61
62. yep. that'd be sweet.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
quantass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 01:09 AM
Response to Reply #62
114. .
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:23 AM
Response to Reply #60
66. SUSA had n=1800.
Much larger than their typical sample size.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:27 AM
Response to Reply #66
68. Bigger sample size = Better Obama numbers?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:28 AM
Response to Reply #68
69. Is that what you are saying? nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:32 AM
Response to Reply #69
72. Thats what the numbers are saying
Sample size:

PPP>SUSA>Quinnipiac

Obama's numbers

PPP>SUSA>Quinnipiac

Between I am ignoring polls with ~ 600 sample size. Given SUSA's problems and number changes I think those polls could also be inaccurate.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:33 AM
Response to Reply #72
73. SUSA's Problems?
Do tell...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:34 AM
Response to Reply #73
74. 18 point lead reduced to a 6 point lead in two weeks?
While other polls do not show such movement? Because their sample size was too small?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:36 AM
Response to Reply #74
76. LOL....Spin It However You Want.
The only outlier is PPP.

They are the ONLY poll to have Obama's # above 45%.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:37 AM
Response to Reply #76
77. How do you wish to spin SUSA's numbers?
Obama has got the momentum?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:39 AM
Response to Reply #77
79. Inside the margin of error.
It will be a double digit victory, and Obama will NOT get more than 37-44%
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:41 AM
Response to Reply #79
82. I hope you show up tomorrow night.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:46 AM
Response to Reply #82
87. We gonna "throw-down" in the parking lot.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Bullet1987 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:37 AM
Response to Reply #74
78. Yea...only the SUSA followers who think it's some kind of Holy Grail of polling
ignore their obvious problems seen in the great jumps in their numbers.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:41 AM
Response to Reply #78
80. Well?... They are the best...
PPP looked like they kept polling people until they got the result they were after, IMHO.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:42 AM
Response to Reply #80
83. Any explanation for the big jump in numbers from SUSA poll?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:44 AM
Response to Reply #83
86. Not that huge of jump with a MOE about 3.8.
IF Clinton wins by more than 1 point, will PPP be dead to you?

Obama + 3 - 2 + 2 for Clinton = Clinton + 1

That is the best she can do and this poll still be accurate.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:48 AM
Response to Reply #86
88. Hillary's lead was 18 points in SUSA as of two weeks ago
I like to see how you are going to stretch those MOE numbers to get it even close to what they have now?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:41 AM
Response to Reply #88
94. +3.8 & -3.8 is pretty close to where it is today...
AND OBAMA'S SUPPORT IS STILL 37-44%
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
quantass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:21 PM
Response to Reply #78
113. .
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
karynnj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:41 AM
Response to Reply #68
81. The sample size should not affect the estimate, just the precision of the estimate
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 12:31 AM
Response to Reply #68
122. ?
~
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
1776Forever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:12 AM
Response to Original message
58. Can it be by Wednesday morning we will have a nominee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I pray it is so!!!!!!!


If it happens I will be doing the Pennsylvania Polka!!!!!!!!!

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
RiverStone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:22 AM
Response to Original message
65. Dare we ponder news as good as this?
If this were to be the end result Tuesday, her campaign would be over Wednesday - if not seen by Hillary, it would be seen by the SuperD's as justification to pull the plug.

Thanks for sharing! :hi:

And I'll be hoping!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
LSK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:35 AM
Response to Original message
75. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE LET THIS BE OVER 48 HOURS FROM NOW
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NC_Nurse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:43 AM
Response to Reply #75
85. I'm with you!
I just voted early in the NC primary. I hope ours is just a pile on of support for Barack AFTER
an upset in PA. That would ROCK! :P
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
IDemo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:42 AM
Response to Original message
84. Has Pennsylvania been the final proof that tea leaves are as accurate as polls?
I can't remember another race where poll numbers have been all over the map like this. We've gone from Clinton by 20% to Obama by 3% ? I'd really love for this to be true, but I'm left wondering what kind of pseudoscience pollsters rely on to generate their numbers. From now on, I think I will assign my own margin-of-error number of +/- 10% to all polls, regardless of the MOE they claim.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
BigDDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:51 AM
Response to Original message
89. If he does not win by 3+ its a "HUGE" loss for him.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
blonndee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:03 AM
Response to Reply #89
90. Uh, wrong. If she wins by less than 10, it's a HUGE loss for HER.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
BigDDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:54 AM
Response to Reply #90
95. Where did you come up with that?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
quakerboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 02:45 AM
Response to Reply #95
121. delegate math
If she wants to be viable, she has to get some serious percentages going in her favor. Small wins in a "home" state are not terribly impressive to anyone, and would not be likely to push any money or delegates to her.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Vinca Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:15 AM
Response to Original message
92. Wow - if he wins PA, I might get religion.
:rofl: It's one of Hillary's "home" states so a loss would be about the last nail in the coffin.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 12:18 PM
Response to Original message
96. kicked and recccccccccccccccccc'd
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Medusa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 12:23 PM
Response to Original message
98. Clinton has blown yet another double-digit lead I see
And this is reason #1 why she would be a lousy nominee for our party. But since there is no way in hell she will be the nominee, I can continue to sleep soundly at night.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
meow mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 02:15 PM
Response to Original message
99. K&R
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 07:19 AM
Response to Reply #99
123. K&R
~
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
meow mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 02:56 PM
Response to Original message
101. K&R
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
anonymous171 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 02:57 PM
Response to Original message
102. Why is that everytime someone posts a pro-their candidate poll,
that pollster becomes the most accurate ever.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 02:59 PM
Response to Original message
103. kickers
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 03:21 PM
Response to Original message
105. kick
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
meow mix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 03:25 PM
Response to Original message
106. K&R
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
woolldog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 03:35 PM
Response to Original message
107. This + the SUSA poll= Good news.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed....
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 04:22 PM
Response to Reply #107
110. I was kinda let down by the latest SUSA Poll....maybe they had
Weekend Hangover?


:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

:boring: :boring: :boring:

:hangover:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
UndertheOcean Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 03:56 PM
Response to Original message
108. Sweet!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PseudoIntellect Donating Member (701 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 01:10 AM
Response to Original message
115. Still seems like an outlier to me.
But yeah, if that result actually happened, this thing would be OVER. Last straw.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
JohnnyCougar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 01:20 AM
Response to Original message
116. I predict Obama loses by seven.
Which will still be a victory for Obama. Hillary is going to get creamed in NC and beaten in IN.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bridgit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 02:05 AM
Response to Original message
117. Living by polls at this part in the game is a fools errand
the atmospherics are too volatile
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TheDonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 02:10 AM
Response to Original message
118. MOBILIZE OBAMA SUPPORTERS!!!
LET'S WIN THIS THING!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
quakerboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 02:25 AM
Response to Original message
119. That would be nice
I don't know the accuracy of those in question. But my predictions come more from the trends than anything.

EG. SUSA for Penn...

Date Clinton Obama
4/8 56 38
4/15 54 40
4/21 50 44

I like the trend. Either Hillary does a good job shooting herself in the foot, or Barack is really good at campaigning. Or both. Tomorrow should be interesting. No matter what happens, spin will be like a hurricane here.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NorthCarolina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 07:30 AM
Response to Original message
124. The uncertainty of the PA electronic voting system itself greatly increases the MOE of any poll n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Sun Jul 23rd 2017, 04:50 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC