Michael Smerconish predicts an Obama win by 2/3

[southern_belle]

just now on MSNBC. Breaking...no link yet.

[saltpoint]

1. That outcome would be just fine with me but my eyes are reading polling

reports that indicate a different result.

[Coexist]

19. I don't know what to think anymore,

so I am sticking with Clinton +9.

If she wins by less than 12, she loses huge.

[Adelante]

24. That's where I am, too

Anything under 10 is good for us.

[Coexist]

32. PPP has Obama +3

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_042108.pdf

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/21/92731/8608/422/499944

SurveyUSA has been callled the "gold standard" many times this year, but PPP has also earned deserved recognition.

They reported the most accurate results for the South Carolina, Wisconsin, Texas, and Ohio primaries.

SurveyUSA has been incredibly accurate in projecting not only the winner, but also the margin of victory in numerous contests. Their only errors have been Missouri (Clinton by 13 pts.) and Texas (Obama by 1 pt).

But to date, PPP has achieved a perfect record, including Texas (Clinton by 6 pts.) and Ohio (Clinton by 9 pts.)

I was especially impressed by their call in Wisconsin. As you remember, the political press predicted a close contest, based on the state's large Blue-Collar demographic. In fact, four different polling outfits (ARG, Research 2000, Strategic Vision, and Rasmussen Reports) all projected a narrow single-digit outcome.

PPP initially projected a 10 pt victory, and in spite of criticism by the Media-Elite, they didn't pull back, and issued a final report, projecting of a 13 point Obama victory. It's difficult to stand firm and not hedge when everyone is trashing you as an outlier.

[southern_belle]

36. Wow! Thanks for the Update.

:hi:

[saltpoint]

26. Agree. She was up plus-20 less than a month ago.

[dancingme]

2. I'm hopeful but his listeners are Republicans

generally. I don't know that he has that much familiarity with Democrats in the Philly area.

[Spider Jerusalem]

3. I'd say he's off considerably.

Best guess is Clinton by 5-10. I'll be shocked if Obama pulls out a victory in Pennsylvania.

[AllexxisF1]

4. I have this gut feeling that he will be winning.

I have this gut feeling that he will edge her out and it will go late into the night. Hillary will give her concession late into the night and disappear the next day.

[southern_belle]

8. I've been having that same feeling AllexxisF1

:toast:

[lisa58]

22. does she give concession speeches....

...won't she just say "on to north carolina and indiana"?

[PBS Poll-435]

5. If he has to campaign in PA until February 3, 2009 to win..

I am more optimistic than EVAH!

[BlooInBloo]

6. huh?

[HereSince1628]

7. Among what subpopulation of voters?

That would be an extreme outlier for the overall projected vote in PA.

[southern_belle]

15. I'm just reporting what Smerconish said

and he has been saying very encouraging things about Obama in the last few weeks on MSNBC. I find it interesting that he is a conservative radio host in Philadelphia. :shrug:

[HereSince1628]

27. While I think that outcome is possible for some groups and some places

It seems out of line with the other polls for the overall vote in PA.

I'm not challenging that he said it, just that it may not be what it seems.

[chimpymustgo]

35. Surprised by another conservative pushing Obama???

You guys...

[Eurobabe]

9. yeargh! I think Obama will pull this off

but it will be a squeaker.

[AtomicKitten]

10. That would be truly unexpected and amazing if it happens.

[Sensitivity]

11. Better listen to the Gov. -- "There are some are not ready to vote for a Black Man"

Just wishfull thinking to think that undecideds break for Obama.
He needed a 5 point lead in the polls.

[ErinBerin84]

12. lol

Pat Buchanan says that if Hillary Clinton wins by 5, it will be a big victory for her because "THIS GUY CAN'T CLOSE THE DEAL!"

[dchill]

29. He is a blowhard. Hillary isn't exactly...

closing the deal, either - not by a long shot.

[vi5]

13. He won't win....

I'd love for it to happen. I'd welcome for it to happen.

It's just not going to happen. In almost every instance undecideds have broken towards Clinton by larger margins, and that's the only thing left to happen beyond where the polls are now.

[flpoljunkie]

14. Buchanan just lowered Hil's threshold to between 5-10 to be declared the big winner in PA!

Damn, racist Pat Buchanan and bully Joe Scarborough surely do work hard for the Clintons. MSNBC showed a clip a little while ago of Bill saying to please say hello to Joe to an MSNBC reporter.

[ScarletSniper]

21. I saw that..lol..he stumbled before he got out the 5% because he knows he full of shit..as is Joey

[Bigleaf]

23. Mike Barnacle set him straight. He said it's over. She has to win by 15%, she's out of money,

it,s over.

[ErinBerin84]

25. and he said

if Hillary wins by "a few points" then maybe Obama will have a point. A few points?!

haha...Mike with his "Obama is a cell phone and Clinton is the land line, and some people are having a hard time with the transition."

[Galway girl]

28. Pat Buchannon

It appears that anyone who is against Obama has the final word on what state is important , How much of a win is a win etc.

As much as I like Hillary and Obama she cannot win the nomination without stealing it . She should do a deal with OBama now and unite the clans !!!!!!

[Evergreen Emerald]

16. who?

[ScarletSniper]

17. Mike Barnicle just said on MSNBC...It's over...it's done...she can't win...

Ha Ha..Pat Buchanan and Joey didn't like that one..lol!

[lisa58]

18. he said that last friday too...

...I hope he's right

[PBS Poll-435]

20. I love Obama folks using RW sources...

When it fits their agenda.

I think this guy subs for every Ahole under the sun. Rush/Wiener/ORLY

[mystieus]

30. It sounds like they're changing the narrative

so that tomorrow they can talk about the "big comeback" by HRC.

[my3boyz]

31. He has been saying that for a while now. Unfortunately, I don't believe him. nt

[southern_belle]

33. Mike Barnacle just agreed that Obama

could win PA.

[Eurobabe]

34. Watch.Wait.Listen.

Tomorrow history will be made. :hi:

[mcctatas]

37. Michael Smerconish is an asswipe...

but I hope the old "even a broken clock is right twice a day" saying is true in this case! Then wouldn't she FINALLY have to concede?