PA POLL: Hillary 48, Obama 43 -- "Clinton margin in Pa. won't cut Obama's delegate lead"

[jefferson_dem]

Poll: Clinton margin in Pa. won't cut Obama's delegate lead
By Steven Thomma | McClatchy Newspapers
Posted on Sunday, April 20, 2008

WASHINGTON — Hillary Clinton leads among bowlers, gun owners and hunters in Pennsylvania, a blue-collar trifecta that is helping her hold an edge over rival Barack Obama heading into Tuesday's pivotal primary there.

Clinton leads by solid margins in all three slices of working-class Pennsylvania — the political battleground where the two Democrats have waged war for control of the state, according to a new poll conducted for McClatchy Newspapers, MSNBC and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

The one group where she does not have a solid lead is among beer drinkers; they split evenly between her and Obama.

Overall, Clinton leads Obama by a margin of 48-43 percent, with 8 percent still undecided. The telelphone survey of 625 likely Pennsylvania voters was taken April 17-18 and had an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

"Clinton leads in Pennsylvania," said Brad Coker, the managing partner for Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the poll.

"However, the lead doesn't indicate she's going to win by a large enough margin to make a serious impact on Obama's overall delegate lead."

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http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/34246.html

[bklyncowgirl]

1. "The one group where she does not have a solid lead is among beer drinkers"

All that Yuengling he's been downing must be paying off!

[dbmk]

2. Take a look at this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5575980&mesg_id=5575980

If Obama keeps it under 5 points Hillary will only gain only 1 delegate from the at-large pool.
And would support the projections on her only winning 3 from district delegates.

Leading to a total of 4.

Atm. it seems like it would take a serious swing from the current polls and/or some breaks in a few districts to get her to a plus of 10 delegates or more.
And considering how many of the remaining delegates are in play in PA, even that can't be considered a serious impact.

That is of course a different matter from how it will be spun or argument for a continuation of the race.

But I foresee Hillary stepping out of the race within 5 days after Tuesday.

[Tellurian]

12. Far from it.. PA is still reverberating from Obama's Finger Flip..

Hillary will win by double digits!

[dbmk]

14. I think that "story" only reverberated on few hysterical blogs

[DemsUnited]

3. Zogby poll had it pretty similar. Hope they are accurate but

I still have to say he loses by 7 - 11%

Oh well, he's already won the war, especially if it comes out that the Clinton campaign is broke when the FEC campaign fundraising reports are filed sometime today.

On Edit link to new zogby poll: http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/Newsmax_Zogby_Pa_race/2008/04/19/89395.html

[Dbdmjs1022]

4. "Cell phone numbers are not in the exchanges"

That alone should swing the actual results at least a point or two closer to Obama. But this sounds about right. I hope he pulls out a win, but if he keeps it within 5 I'll be ecstatic.

[AllentownJake]

5. 8% of the electorate

Is not polled because the pollsters don't have their registration information because they just switched or registered.

[hell-bent]

6. But, it means

around a 200,000 to 250,000 vote spread in the popular vote coming out of Pennsylvania for Clinton. Add that to Florida's vote for Hillary and that 700,000 vote lead in the popular vote is whittled down a bit. Then, of course there is the case for the SDs to consider as to which candidate has won the most likely Blue states for the GE. And, what about momentum? With all that money, BO can't wind this race up in his favor. Also, Hillary's spread in total votes may be more than 5%. Start biting your nails, Obamatrons.....:rofl:

[jefferson_dem]

8. Baloney. I'm not sure where you are getting your numbers but...

a 5% win would likely net her less than 100,000 votes. He will more than make up for that in NC. A 10% victory would likely still only net her less than 200,000.

Make your own projections -- http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/chooseyourown.html

Whatever the case, this is a race for delegates. We don't change the rules in order to prop up Hillary.

Your other talking points are refutable too but no need to "go there."

[dbmk]

9. The point about blue states

.. is only valid if you can prove or at least make some sort of case as to why he wont win them in the GE too.
That should be glaringly obvious.

I am genuinely interested in hearing if you think thats the case somewhere.

[Vinca]

7. The undecideds and cell phone users could create headlines. nt

[ORDem]

10. Even IF she gets 20% over Obama it won't be enough to seriously impact his delegate count.

She simply can't garner enough delegates to overtake him in the number of contests that are left. 1627 is the magic pledged delegate number, that's the majority of PDs. Obama will be there in a month and the SDs will be climbing all over themselves to sign on with the winning side.

:dem:

[malletgirl02]

11. Closing the gap

Wasn't Obama, originally supposed to lose to Clinton in PA by about 20 points? Good for Obama for closing the gap.

[stillcool]

16. That has been the stated case..

Pennsylvania is "Hillary Country" and she is expected to win by 20+ and prove that she can make a dent in Obama's lead. There may not be many who are sticking to this position but I am. That is the goal post.

[meow mix]

13. K&R

:toast:

[slinkerwink]

15. I still think she'll win by 12