ARG: Clinton up by 20 points in PA!!!

[uberblonde]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

Guess that SUSA poll from last week (http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/04/08/pennsylvania-clinton-18-points-ahead-of-obama/) wasn't an outlier, after all!

[YOY]

1. Doug Henning Lives!

Cos anyone who pulls those numbers out of their ass must be using MAAAAAAGIC!

[uberblonde]

2. There, there.

You just keep telling yourself that.

[YOY]

4. I knew you weren't dead Doug!

All those nights I cried for you! I knew you'd come back.

Just like Jesus...in rainbow spandex.

:applause:

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

7. Anything's possible in the World of Clintusion!

[cliffordu]

29. HAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!!

:rofl:

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Well you sure are using that uber blonde logic.

There are far more than just 2 polls that do not show Clinton with a 20 point lead. This very well could be the case, however, until a majority, or even a bit more than 2, show Clinton that far up, I'll still believe it's an outlier.

[Eurobabe]

5. How reliable is ARG, what's their track record?

I think polls are bullshit. Do they call cellphone users? NO. Then they are ignoring a whole demographic.

[SoCalDem]

6. Arg.. 48% prefer "Yo-ho-ho" .. 52% "prefer shiver me timbers"

[Eurobabe]

15. Please don't take my name in vain.

:rofl:

[SoCalDem]

27. oops.. so sorry

:rofl:

[Eurobabe]

38. actually a yo-ho-ho sounds yummy right now

is that like a ding-dong? :hi:

[Voice for Peace]

17. LOLOL! Aaarrrrrrgh

[Blue_Roses]

39. Not very and here's why:

http://ajacksonian.blogspot.com/2007/12/problem-with-american-research-group.html

[TheDoorbellRang]

41. ARG will probably hedge their bets with their next poll results -- see WI

Here's ARG poll data right before the election in WI:
ARG* 02/17 - 02/18 600 LV 52 42 Obama +10.0
ARG* 02/15 - 02/16 600 LV 43 49 Clinton +6.0

Obama won on 2/19 in WI 58.1-40.7% Obama +17.4

I'm not sure what magic formula these pollsters are using to come up with their results, but I don't think ARG has the winning formula.

[Melinda]

50. ARG is consistently wrong. They predicted S. Carolina by 3, and Obama won by 28%

American Research Group is, on average, 11.5 points off the actual results with their polls. A lot of that has to do with the fact that they have continuously under-represented the support that Barack Obama draws. In South Carolina, they predicted that Obama was up by 3 when he won by 28%. In Delaware they predicted a race that was within the margin of error when Obama won by 10 points.

At this point, you should be skeptical of any poll by ARG that shows a close election because Obama most likely is performing a bit better in the polls.

ARG gets graded on its results.

[Eurobabe]

59. Thank you, ARG you are dead to me.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

8. Too bad she has to win by 30% just to keep from losing ground.

[jobycom]

14. Could you explain that?

Not challenging you, just haven't heard that.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

25. Based on the difference in pledged delegates

Right now, Hillary has to win 64.9% of the remaining pledged delegates to tie up the p.d. count with Obama. If she wins less than that in Pennsylvania (say, 60%, as the OP's poll predicts), she will have to win even more than 65% of the remaining states.

[jobycom]

28. Ah. Thanks. nt

[book_worm]

9. Another poll out today has it only 40-37 in Clinton's favor

http://www.susquehannapolling.com/polls/Clinton_Obama_4-14-08.pdf

I guess we will find out in about a week who is closer.

[Divernan]

Self-delete, dupe.

[Divernan]

21. And this morning Steeler Owner Dan Rooney endorsed Obama!

[jackson_dem]

48. The difference is that poll was taken before smalltowngate...

[thoughtcrime1984]

10. uhhhh uhhhhhh POLLGASM!!!

She won't win by 20, see you on the 22nd.

[datopbanana]

11. YES!!! I CANT GET ME ENOUGH HRC!!!!

[roguevalley]

57. can't get enough HRC? She should be available shortly. Check in

around NC.

[JBoy]

12. So she WILL win big in PA! Anything less than a 20 point margin is a catastrophic loss.

[Eurobabe]

16. Set that fucking bar REALLY high!!

Annie get your gun.

[nels25]

13. I will believe it when

Rasmussen, Gallup, Pew and some of the better known and some what more respected polls start showing the same.

Also can she hold it??

I wonder??

[jackson_dem]

49. There is only one week left and O is still taking fire for smalltowngate

Plus there is a debate coming up and Hillary almost always wins them as far as the public is concerned.

[Texas Hill Country]

18. Friggin OUCH.

[4_Legs_Good]

19. Not surprising, expect a big night for Hillary on Tuesday. Matches Zogby which had her up by 4

And he's usually off by at least 16%.

Enjoy the party on the 22nd!

David

[oasis]

20. "Bittergate" has guaranteed Hillary a Pennslyvania tsunami. (eom)

[billyoc]

31. She's already getting booed for bringing it up, they fired their bolt. nt

[oasis]

37. Of course there were some Obama "dead-enders" in the crowd.

The polls show that Obama's disparaging comments have hurt him.

[billyoc]

40. Ah, yes, I can see that the Obama campaign is in it's "last throes"

"if you will". :rofl:

[jackson_dem]

51. Of course Obama zealots will be in the crowd

These are the same people who gave Tavis Smiley death threats for daring to question the messiah (but it is not a cult!!!!).

[grantcart]

22. today after bittergate

[RememberWellstone]

23. I am not bitter!

Nor do I have to parse what I believe! Good news indeed!

[Vinca]

24. Not freaking out. Polls take about a week to catch up with news.

The same thing happened around "Wright-gate." I doubt very much it will be 20 points on election day. For starters, didn't I just hear Hillary on the tube getting booed in front of her own crowd?

[Dawgs]

26. ...or ARG is trying to make sure it doesn't screw up this time.

:shrug:

[milkyway]

30. Thanks for this. Anything less than 20% should be considered a disappointment for Clinton.

ARG has been dead on in all its polling this year.

Clinton should win PA by 20%-30%. This 20% lead is before the full effect of all the happy PA voters turning against Obama.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

32. The trend is your friend...

Unless your Annie Oakley

Includes the latest ARG nonsense

[jackson_dem]

52. The trend is Ohio redux. You all were hailing the trend in Ohio too

Without realizing the clock was running out. Obama is going to storm into a lead in PA over the next week? Unlikely.

[nsd]

33. The thing I don't understand is that national polls have Obama up by 4-10 points.

How can he lag in PA by 20 points? Is PA really that much different than the rest of the country?

[Texas Hill Country]

45. it is largely rural and homogenous. AND the national polls are still lagging.

[nsd]

47. PA is not "rural and homogenous".

Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are big cities, with large surrounding suburban areas. There are lots of African Americans, lots of colleges and universities. Certainly there are big parts of the state that are rural, but you can't characterize PA that simply (especially since we're talking only about Democratic primary voters).

ETA: Also, the national polls I referenced came out today and were conducted over the weekend -- the same as the ARG PA poll.

[AX10]

34. Possible.

But we are taking no chances. I'm in PA to help HRC up until the 22nd.
We are putting everything we have into winning this state for her!
If she wins by a massive margin, she will get a boost across the board.

[sniffa]

35. Awesome

That's pretty much what everyone expects from her in PA. :bounce:

[woolldog]

36. I didn't buy the ARG poll when they said it was even

and I don't buy this one either.

[madfloridian]

42. ARG...why doesn't Real Clear Politics use that poll?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

I am doing some reading on that.

Here is one site:

http://ajacksonian.blogspot.com:80/2007/12/problem-with-american-research-group.html

And another:

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2005/03/disclosing_part_4.html

[jackson_dem]

53. ARG does suck but this is the only PA poll taken during smalltowngate

It is a bad sign for St. Obanma...

[madfloridian]

58. No, not really. Not if it is not reliable. People are not as dumb

as the Clinton campaign thinks they are.

Hillary is doing her job. She is tearing down Obama the best she can and building up McCain....perhaps so she can run with him.

[AZBlue]

43. And here's why we shouldn't pay attention to ARG

whether they say Clinton or Obama's ahead - they are completely unreliable:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5498905&mesg_id=5499494

[RiverStone]

44. Hillary down 10 points nationally

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106504/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Numbers-Holding-Strong.aspx

[jackson_dem]

54. When is the national primary?

[moondust]

46. They're pleased as punch with Mrs. Nafta!

:crazy:

[jackson_dem]

55. IRONIC! You must be another bitter "anti-trade" (Wall Street code) person, as Obama says

Suckers...Not a single Obamite has come to grips with what he meant by "anti-trade". You can "hope" he is what you fantasize him as but that does not make it so.

[slick8790]

56. There's a reason RealClearPolitics doesn't use ARG polls in their averages.

Usually because they're shockingly off base every time.