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Edited on Thu Apr-10-08 10:13 PM by FlyingSquirrel
This you gotta see?
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In the states where there was a virtual tie (MO, NV, NH, TX) the Supers who have declared so far have pretty much split down the middle (20 for Obama, 19 for Hillary)
In Arkansas and New York, Clinton took all but one Super. In Illinois, Obama took all the Supers.
In the other states where Clinton won, she took 63.6% of the Supers who've declared from those states. In the other states where Obama won, he took 61.0% of the Supers who've declared from those states.
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Let's give Hillary the benefit of the doubt and say these patterns continue, and Obama doesn't get any kind of boost at all from this point on.
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12 more Supers for Clinton, 12 for Obama in MO, NV, NH, TX
5 more Supers in AR and NY go to Clinton. 47 more Supers in other states Hillary won go to her, vs 26 for Obama.
3 more Supers in IL go to Obama. 63 more Supers in other states Obama won go to him, vs 39 for Hillary.
Total: 104 Obama, 103 Clinton
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Now let's say Hillary wins PA, IN, KY, WV, PR (just for the sake of argument)
15 remaining Supers in those states go to Clinton, vs 9 for Obama.
And let's say Obama wins NC, MT, OR, SD, GU
21 remaining Supers in those states go to Obama, vs 12 for Clinton.
Grand Total: 134 Obama, 130 Clinton
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And then of course there'll be a bunch of add-ons from who knows where.
My basic point is, the remaining Superdelegates are not gonna do anything radical. If Clinton were to end up winning the overall popular vote, that might count for something in some Supers' eyes, but would be more than offset by those who are fixed on the pledged delegate count.
In reality, the state they're from will probably be the factor you can most count on if you're wanting to guess-timate what they'll do. So really, the very best Hillary is likely to do is end up with a tie with Obama for the remaining Superdelegates.
Might as well include that in your calculations for what she'll need to do in the remaining states.
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