New Ohio Poll not good news?

[Thrill]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040530/ap_on_el_pr/ohio_poll&cid=694&ncid=1963&sid=96378798

[tritsofme]

1. Mason-Dixon is usually pretty reliable,

but this poll could just be an outlier.

We'd need to see more polls confirming this before getting worried.

[dsc]

2. The Cleveland PD got the same results

http://www.cleveland.com/election/agate.ssf?/election/pdpoll.html

[Journeyman]

3. It's the same poll, dsc. . .

both handled by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington, DC (see the bottom of your poll, and the second paragraph of the article cited by BT).

[dsc]

4. sorry you are right

the print on the PD disclaimer is so small I was unable to read it correctly the first time. I thought they had asked fewer people and thus had a different poll.

[tritsofme]

6. That's the same poll.

The poll, conducted May 20-25 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington, D.C., is based on interviews with 1,500 registered voters who plan to vote in November. The poll, which has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points, is the largest presidential poll taken in Ohio this year.

[Journeyman]

5. Don't like this poll, check out this one. . .

www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x591709


Challenger (Kerry) ahead in 11 of 16 (key states)

A new poll in 16 "battleground" states where the presidential election of 2004 likely will be decided shows Democrat John Kerry holding advantages over President Bush in 11 states and Bush holding edges over Kerry in four.

He's ahead in Ohio in this poll.

ONLY ONE POLL MATTERS: THE ONE WE'LL ALL PARTICIPATE IN ON NOVEMBER 2!

So keep busy. We've got months to go. . .

[tritsofme]

7. Those Zogby Interactive results mean absolutely nothing,

to me at least.

Its not scientific and its done over the internet.

[Journeyman]

8. My point exactly. . .

Why do you believe the PD/Mason-Dixon poll has anymore validity than a supermarket tabloid poll? This Zogby poll isn't an internet poll (he does many types of polls). But does that give it anymore validity than the PD/Mason-Dixon poll? No.

Who's in first in the race for the World Series? The lead there will change more times than Kerry-Bush will flop positions in the countless polls taken or pushed for each of them in the next 5 months. Hell, the LA Dodgers recently lost 9 games out of 10 yet were still in first place. Will they be in the Series? Doesn't look good, even if they are in first. Same with ShrubCo. He's losing ground everywhere and we have to work to help him lose more, but pay not attention to the "snapshot" assessments. Eye on the prize and all that.

[dsc]

9. the fact it is scientificlly conducted

Yes there is some validity in what you say but that poll is an accurate statment of the state of the race now.

[tritsofme]

10. Valid points,

but I have been under the impression that the most recent polls to come from Zogby have been from the so called "Interactive" questionares that have been done over the internet by people who volunteered to participate, meaning mostly political junkies, besides the sample not being represntative the results probably favor Kerry unduly. Zogby's telephone surveys are probably more reliable, but I am still calling into question his reliability regardless of his nailing 2000 because of his failures in the 2002 midterms and the Democratic primaries.

Mason-Dixon is a reputable polling firm that has gotten things right in the past, and I trust them.

I agree with the rest of your post, and I think bush is going to loose, but that it will be far from a blowout.

[Paradise]

11. oh, for goodness sake,

is that what it is, zogby's internet interactive poll? well, that's a relief. thanks tritsofme. :)

[dsc]

12. No the poll we like is one of those

the poll showing Kerry behind is a scientific one.

[Paradise]

17. thanks dsc :)

i'm cuckoo for cocoa polls... :crazy:

[Nicholas_J]

13. I dont know

THis is the third or fourth Mason DIxon poll which has been out of synch with all the other polls in the same states. In every state where Mason Dixon has done a poll, Kerry had good leads over Bush, then Mason Dixon has found that Bush was in the lead, and then the next poll that comes after the Mason Dixon poll shows Kerry with the very same leads as he had in other past polls. If you look at the polls Mason Dixoon is decideing to do, most of them are in states where Bush has a big lead, OR the battleground states that Kerry has very large leads in, and then Mason Dixon shows the opposite of other polls.

[lancdem]

19. Nicholas, I think you may be right about that

Do you have links?

[Nicholas_J]

20. You have to search archives:

At either:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

or

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

But here is an example..Kerry and Bush are running neck and neck in Florida, with Kerry a point or so ahead in most polls:

Mason DIxon comes along and polls Bush way head of Kerrypoll done for a local Florida Newspaper)

snip:

Polls point to a tight and potentially seesawing Florida contest: In early March, a St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll found Kerry leading by 6 points in Florida. A Mason-Dixon poll in early April showed Bush leading by 8. An American Research Group poll in late April showed a dead heat.

http://www.sptimes.com/2004/05/05/Worldandnation/Kerry_campaign_cranki.shtml

But if you go to this site and check the Florida Polls, the only polls that gives BUsh anything like a large lead in Florida is Mason DIxon. Most of the other polls have Kerry ahead of BUsh by a point or two, and a few show BUsh ahead by a point of two. Only Mason DIxon gives the state to Florida by more than the Moe of the polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html#fl

YOu have to do some searchiing through these sites in order to find the states wher Mason Dixon appears to be pulling for Bush.

The results of the Mason Dixon polls seem extrmely odd considering the latest statistic on registration by party in the state of FLorida. Of the voting age population, 44 percent are now registered Democrat, 34 percent registered Republican, five percent registered as independent(this from a recent Florida news broadcast).

There has been an enormous amount of democratic registration in the last 6 months. Six months ago, the split between registered Democrats and Republicans was only divided by a scant 65,000 voters, but now there is a clear Democratic advantage in this state.

[Nicholas_J]

23. An update on this...

Notice all of the polls that came out today in which Kerry had a significant lead over Bush, or in states that Bush won on 2000.


Minnesota, which has been a solid blue state fom months now goes back into undecided as the reult of, you guessed it, a Mason Dixon Poll:

Mason Dixon Poll 5/24 Kerry 44% Bush 41%

But contrast this with recent polls in the same state:

Zogby 5/23 Kerry 51.3% Bush 42%

Other polls in Minnesota compared with Zogby, rather than M/D


Now lets check the closer race in Ohio:

Mason Dixon 5/20-25 Bush 47% Kerry 41%

but a number of other recent polls place Kerry in the lead:

Zogby 5/18 -23 Kerry 49.7 Bush 44.8

ARG 5/10-12 Kerry 49% Bush 42%

and other polls going back to March which place Kerry in the lead n Ohio.

If you go and check all of the other states in WHich Mason Dixon is doing polls you get:

North Carolina, where Bush has a lead beying the MoE

Montana where Bush has a 20 point lead over Kerry in the last poll done there, Mason Dixon.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

There are a few other states in which Mason Dixon did polls and found leads for Kerry, but by and large it seems that Mason Dixon is polling in states expected to go to Bush or in states that Bush won in 2000, but in which other polls show Kerry leading by more than the margin of error of the polls.


It seems that Mason Dixon is doing a lot of polling where the environmentis favorable to Bush or in places where Kerry appears to be pulling an upset and coming well ahead of Bush, but states which are critical for Bush is he wants to win. I think that these polls are being done in an attempt to manipulate public opinion., particularly among the undecided (a key principal of Social Psych, you can only change the mind of a person who is undecided)

[DarthDem]

14. Registered Voters . . .

. . . not likely voters. I would think Repukes enjoy a huge registration lead in Ohio, no? I tend to believe that Ohio is actually in "dead heat" status right now, and that's great news . . . because while Kerry can win without it, * cannot.

[dsc]

15. I am not sure what the registration actually is

this poll was random not stratified random.

[DarthDem]

16. Right

I hear ya. Still, I'm really encouraged by the fact that Ohio is in play. The Democratic party, on the statewide level, is really weak, Gore made no attempt to campaign there at all, and it was still really close. I think Kerry should devote a huge amount of time and resources to Ohio - - as well as Florida and West Virginia. Campaigning in WV shouldn't be too hard if he's focusing on Ohio, since it's right next door.

[dsc]

18. Ohio is expensive

but a needed expense. Gore can get milage from Michigan, PA appearences as well.

[TruthIsAll]

21. ARG has Kerry ahead by 7%. And Zogby was spot on in 2000.

Kerry is ahead in OH. No question about it.

[dusty64]

22. The campaign has barely

begun with most polls showing the opposite. The Democrats did NOT contest Ohio in 2000, this time will be different. I expect it to go for Kerry in November despite diebold's promise to "deliver the state to" chimp.