New Indiana Poll Shows Commanding Bush Lead

[salonghorn70]

This probably dims Bayh's chances of landing the VP choice. If you scroll down, the story says Bayh on the ticket doesn't make much difference.http://www.indystar.com/articles/6/148936-8476-092.html

[lanparty]

1. 700 voters

While I agree with the whole Bayh thing, I don't think the WTHR poll reflects a good cross-section of Hoosier voters. If they conducted their poll strictly in the 317 area code, they would have gotten VERY schewed results.

The large municipal centers of Northwest Indiana and Terra Haute are Democratic. The college towns of Lafayette and Bloomington also tend to go Democratic.

If the jobs situation in Indiana doesn't improve, Bush is in for trouble in the general election. It's been a VERY long time since Indiana has voted for a Democratic presidential campaign. They way I see it, we're due.

[salin]

2. I think we are due - but I don't think the majority of our fellow

hoosiers think so. And I come from one of those places that you cite as traditionally democratic. I think it will be closer at the top than it has been for years. But I have contended for a long time (and this poll matches it) that as popular as Bayh is (heck they can't even mount a serious republican challenger) - he is nowhere as popular as Bush - as evidenced by the huge turnout at his multiple fundraisers for "His B*tch Mitch". Bayh wouldn't tip the state's vote to Kerry.

[zulchzulu]

38. Yep, 700 people in 317 area code with MOE of 4.3

Indianapolis is Quayle Country. Yawn...

[gristy]

3. Here's a close look at the numbers

2000 Presidential Vote in Indiana
Bush: 1,245,836 (56.6%)
Gore: 901,980 (41.0%)
Nader: 18,531 (0.8%)
Other: 32,899 (1.5%)
Total: 2,199,246

This Poll
Bush: 54%
Kerry: 33%
Nader: 6%

My take on this:
Bush has lost votes Kerry.
Kerry has lost votes to Nader.

My predictions:
Bush will continue to lose votes to Kerry.
Nadar will lose nearly all his votes to Kerry come 11/2 (less than 1% voted for Nader in 2000).
Indiana is "in play".

Woo hoo!

[qazplm]

4. having gone to Purdue

are you sure Lafayette is Democratic?

I participate on one of their sports boards and I tell ya it runs about 80-20 conservative-moderate, I'm about the only liberal on that board.

[lanparty]

14. Professors

I'd agree that the admin is pretty conservative. But the profs are all the types who are astonished at Bush's ignorance and arrogance. (I went to Purdue as well). Students also tend to be more liberal than older folks.

The blue-collar townies in that area are more likely to be townies. But take note. Ingersoll-Rand just shut down in the area. The Isuzu plant ALSO has shut down. People vote with their pocketbooks. Under Bush, Lafayette isn't doing so well.

If you see some of the Indianpolis area manufacturers moving out before the election, you may see a MAJOR shift in the white, blue collar Indianapolis vote.

The Democratic party does need to do a better job at educating farmers on the way that Republicans are SCREWING THEM. They give money to huge agribusiness producers (subsidies) and drive their commodity prices down.

I personally believe that Indiana is IN PLAY!!!!!! Many Republicans are fed up with Bush. They may not vote for Kerry. But they may either stay home or vote for Nader or Lyndon LaRouche.

Remember for Democrats, a vote for Nader is a vote for Bush. For Republicans, a vote for Nader is a vote for Kerry. If we can turn out the vote BIG time in the poor/urban minority areas of Indianapolis and Gary and combine that with waning Bush support as well as some independent support, we can make the state swing Democratic.

[MAlibdem]

21. most sports run conservative

there is a demonstrable conservative bias in sports and among athletic commentators. Not that it's consequential or bothersome...

[WI_DEM]

5. 43%disapprove of the job he is doing

yet Kerry is getting only 33%. Indiana is just a lost cause.

[salin]

7. that is what it looks like - from within a liberal part of Indiana.

worse is the lead that "My B*tch Mitch" is opening up in the governor's race over Gov Kernan.

There is much greater discontent with Bush than I have ever seen against a republican president in Indiana. However there are just huge swaths of increasingly politicized pulpit based voting republicans that make it exceptionally hard for any democrat at the very top of the ticket.

[billhos]

12. coat tails

That lead over Kernan will probably get bigger on election day. What no one on this thread has noted is that Indiana is the pre-eminent coat tail state. that is bad news down ticket. Remember Welsh vs Bowen in '72.

[salin]

13. could you recap that race?

I was a tad too young to be following politics at the time.

[fujiyama]

19. I agree

Even if 4% of the Bush supporters switch to Kerry, and 5% of the Nader voters go to Kerry, that still leaves Bush ahead by 8 points.

While I doubt Bush will get as many votes as he did in '00 in that state, he still will win it and probably quite easilly.

[elperromagico]

6. With or without Bayh, I don't see Indiana going Democratic.

Kerry may as well pick a running mate from Idaho. </sarcasm>

[troublemaker]

16. Re-animate Jim Nabors for VP

You gotta love a nut-right state with an over-the-top gay hero. (Indianans will know what I'm talking about)

[Zynx]

8. Indiana will never go Democratic in my lifetime.

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

9. Why is Indiana so republican?

It seems to stick out in the Midwest, which otherwise is surrounded by swing states.

[spooky3]

24. It has only one urban area, where one normally finds more Dems.

Also, there is a huge Bible Belt influence--people who don't agree with many parts of the Repub. platform and who aren't part of the upper middle class and above demographic support the Repubs. because they share the "religious right" views.

[spooky3]

25. And even in the one urban area (Indy) the media has been controlled for

many years by a VERY conservative publisher.

[realcountrymusic]

27. Birthplace of the KKK

Indiana is the most Southern of the midewestern states, culturally. It's also the birthplace of the KKK (a lot of folks assume that would be Miss. or Alabama, but it's not).

Indianians are my second favorite people. Right after everybody else. Just kidding.

Realcountrymusic

[9119495]

39. At one point Indian had 44% KKK membership!

This state is staying in the bush column. A frined of mine lives there and describes the situation as hopeless--and Bayh is not that popular there anyway with many dems.

[IndianaGreen]

10. Mind you that Indiana has a Democratic Governor and Democratic House

Indianapolis-Marion County is Democratic as is the Mayor.

Kerry is pulling weaker numbers in Indiana than Gore did 4-years ago. The Kerry campaign has written off Indiana before the campaign even began, and they have not bothered to schedule appearances with our local Democrats. On the flip side, GOP gubernatorial candidate Mitch Daniels had Bush campaigning for him once, not including a brief appearance when Bush began his bush tour. Cheney has come to Indiana twice to campaign with Daniels.

If you are not on TV, you don't exist.

[salin]

11. Sadly, there are not many high profile

progressive democrats in the pipeline. Til that happens I think we are stuck with Bayh (who the repubs won't even push a serious candidate against.) A great deal of work has to happen in our state. There are pockets of liberalism - but the rest seems to be divided between the pragmatic (who will vote either way - but seem right now to be swayed by republican packaging of economic issues) and the increasingly vocal religious right. I think the pragmatic can be won over. Only way to explain Peterson's broad popularity.

Beyond Peterson, however, I don't see many in the pipeline. Fortunately, I respect Peterson and find him to be, though still quite moderate, much more intelligent and willing to take an occaisional hard stand than Bayh - but overly liberal or progressive he isn't.

As much as I like how Carson votes in congress, she isn't terribly well respected within her district, let alone beyond it. That has more to do with her tendency in public appearances to go off on long disjointed tangents, leaving many (even supporters) to suspect that she has had a couple of strokes and isn't quite all there. This district is probably one of the most likely possible bouncing grounds for a new progressive democrat that could emerge that could also appeal (over time) to the broader state. But I don't see her deciding not to run any year soon, and thus don't see anyone being preened to follow those footsteps.

[Pepperbelly]

17. seems like the industrial belt in the north would have to vote against ...

their own economic interests in supporting Bush.

:shrug:

[troublemaker]

15. Thank God! If Indiana goes for Kerry I might have to rethink my vote

Everyone has their bete noir State... I find Texas the most evil state (yes, broad brushes *were* on sale at Home Depot this week) but Indiana Republicans do have a special extra-perverted quality.

Birthplace of the Klan, you know...

[Scoopie]

42. Not that I'm bragging

because I absolutely am not...but I did want to correct you.
Pulaski, TN is the home of the Klan.
Now, in keeping with the current conversation, it has been Indiana (and I lived in Seymour for a year, so I know a bit about it) that has kept the KKK membership alive and well.

[trogdor]

18. Too many idiot Hoosiers out there.

I mean, if Dan Quayle was the best they could do for the Senate.

[Nicholas_J]

20. A number of conservative analysts

Have indicated that while Bush will win Indiana, it is going to end up being much closer than current polls indicate, but that Bush is going to lose a number of states that he currently seems to lead in.

It was predicted that Bush would win New Hampsire, but already this has turned around, and is it predicted that Kerry will turn things around in Missouri and win that state by about 3 percent, Wisconsin, where he will win by 3 percent, and Nevada where he will win by 3 percent.

Thee following states are predicted to end up being close Kerry wins as well

Ohio ,Florida, Oregon,Iowa,Pennsylvania,
New Mexico,Michigan,Maine,Miinnesota.

Conservative analysts are rather wirried, because all of the statistical analysis they are doing show a very large electoral vote win for Kerry with him recieving 327 electoral votes , and winning the popular vote by 52 percent.

[MAlibdem]

22. who are these "analysts"?

and can i buy them a drink?

[Nicholas_J]

23. One is a conservative

Mathematician, who rund a web site analzing the campaign, the site is called something like election projection, but a number of other neo-conservatives like William Kristol, have stated that Kerry is going to win Kristol was one of the primary authors of "The Project for the New American Century" (PNAC" the founding document of the neo-conservative movement and in particular, its ideas for foreign policy:

William Kristol, editor of the conservative “Weekly Standard” magazine, told Fox News Sunday it appears people have doubts about Bush they did not have a few months ago because "they’re not confident we have a credible strategy for winning in Iraq.”

“If they believe we can win in Iraq, I think they’ll re-elect Bush. If they think we just have to get out of there, well, why not make the change to (Democrat John) Kerry? 'Bush is the guy who got us in the mess,”’ he said.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5005061/

According to the "neoconservative" thinker William Kristol, the Bush administration's purported lack of ideas and clarity of purpose in Iraq is undermining political support for the war in Washington:

"We do worry that the administration has just decided to tough it out, but doesn't realize -- and this is what struck me last week, being on Hill a little bit -- how many Republicans as well as Democrats, privately at least, are just saying, 'How do we get out of this mess?'"

Kristol, editor of "The Weekly Standard" magazine, was a strong supporter of going to war in Iraq, along with the influential analyst Robert Kagan of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Both men argued that toppling Saddam Hussein and establishing democracy in Iraq were noble goals that would spread progress throughout the Middle East. But both men are now sharp critics of the way the Bush administration is currently handling the war."What worries me most, as a Bush supporter, about the administration right now is that it seems to be wavering between a victory strategy and an elegant, or let's say, delayed exit strategy." -- William Kristol, editor of "The Weekly Standard"

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2004/5/97EBD75A-3A09-4D93-B8FC-B17E2B972325.html


About a week ago, on C-SPAN, after this article was posted, Kristol stated directly he beleives that Kerry will defeat Bush in November.




By the way, the latest online MSNBC poll has Kerry at 60 percent, Bush at 36 percent, Nader at 4 percent, just thought Id add that, as I saw it where this article was posted.

[fujiyama]

26. That would be great

If Kerry gets over fifty percent he would have done something even Clinton couldn't achieve in either of his elections -- win a majority of the votes.

[President Jesus]

28. I lived in Indiana for 4 years, and trust me...

...it is chock full of retards. I would wager 98% of that state's population has never ventured beyond the US border, yet every person you meet will tell you this is the 'greatest country on earth.'

Lotsa Klan types, too, and VERY segregated cities.

[salin]

30. Broad brush generalizations

nearly always are wrong.

In which Hoosier city did you spend four years (assuming - college?)

[Nicholas_J]

31. Fortunately

The states in which Bush has commanding leads, are not among the states that will give the largest number of electoral votes, or the largest number of populary votes. The fact that Kerry commanding leads in the Northeast and in a large portion of the rust belt gives Kerry a tremendous advantage. Five states alonw in which Kerry has a commanding lead give Kerry 20 percent of the entire voting popular vote. Add a few more state, where Kerry is ahead but not with a commandin lead, like California, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and a few others, and with 10 states Kerry will carry between 20 to 30 percent of the popular vote. He needs very few staes after that to win.

So let Bush have Indiana. 111 electoral votes. I would rather have Kerry take the next door state, Illinois, with 21 electoral votes, wouldnt you?

[faithfulcitizen]

33. hey watch it!

There are plenty of Hoosier DU'ers here! :)

The reason Indiana is so conservative, isn't because it's "chock full of retards" and "Klan types". Nor because it only has one major metropolitan area. The Chicago-Gary and Evansville areas are strongly democratic as are many other smaller cities. Imo, Indiana is conservative because of religious reasons and the strong ties to the military. We have one of the highest concentrations of veterans in the country, etc. A strong defense is a major voting factor.

But many conservative republicans I've talked to are disgusted with Bush. If they find Kerry/? ticket a suitable alternative, they may just swing. BTW, they LOVE Clark here. Clark drew a crowd of 3000 at Dan Quayle's alma mater (DePauw, a conservative Christian college) leaving the republican town of 8000 shaking in their shoes.

Some other good signs from Indiana is that, we elected many more Democratic mayors last fall and the democrats in Indianapolis' City County Council just took over the majority for the first time in the city's history! Bayh might help Indiana, but not by much. (Many democrats are also pissed at him here-IWR and 1 of 2 Dem's to vote for Bush's latest tax cut.) I think Clark would fare much better ;) And yes the IndyStar is VERY conservative, so I don't put much stock in their polls.
The tide IS turning against Bush, so I don't think Indiana can be completely ruled out...yet. :kick:

[salin]

35. er... DePauw is Conservative

but while it is affiliated with the Methodist Church (as many universities founded in the first half of the 19th century are tied to a church) it is a loose affiliation. It most certainly is not a "christian college". Indeed it is a highly selective liberal arts college - one with many ties into the business and political networks throughout the state - which is what makes the warm embrace of Clark, quite significant.

[spooky3]

36. Gary and Evansville are not large; I don't consider them "metro areas."

There are Dems in Indiana, but as we know Dems tend to be clustered in large metro areas (except Bloomington and some similar academic towns). There just aren't enough of them to make the state more purple.

The point is that I'm not insulting Indiana or even giving my opinion; I am just pointing out facts.

Gary is part of the greater Chicago area, but the Chicago voters obviously count in Illinois, and there are MANY more of them than in Gary (or Indy). The Evansville area has only a couple hundred thousand people. In contrast, Ohio has three big metro areas (each approximately a million people), Illinois has only one but it's huge--plus a bit of east St. Louis. If Ohio had 1, or if the Chicago area within IL were much smaller than the 8-10 million it is, they would be as "red" as Indiana.

[salin]

37. That is a pretty on the mark assessment. n/t.

[spooky3]

29. I wish David Letterman could influence his fellow citizens more.

[ronnykmarshall]

32. Who was the last Democrat to win Indiana?

[faithfulcitizen]

34. LBJ (n/t)

[Indy65]

40. Indiana Poll

Southern Ind. is very republican. I live in Northern Ind,Twenty-five miles south of Chicago,the poll numbers should be much closer.I moved here twelve-years ago,people who live here call south Ind.the deep south.

[newyawker99]

45. Hi Indy65!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[ithinkmyliverhurts]

41. Well, Quayle thoroughly embarrassed the repubs., so

why not let Bayh (Ugh!!!!) have his turn. Stupid Hoosiers.

[mstrsplinter326]

43. Indianapolis cannot hold it's own weight as a city

The last time I heard it, indianapolis is the 7th largest city in the Union. I am not even sure this godforsaken city has an opera house. There is NO culture and NOTHING to do. Always be leery of giant cities with out major bodies of water or mountains near them. If you're thinking of moving to Indy, don't. No one here could even tell you who DK is. They like the democrats at home though, when things "really matter" they vote Dem. Can you tell how much I hate this place???......

[TexasSissy]

44. I hope this wasn't one of the "swing states"

[salonghorn70]

46. Its A Red State

Indiana is not considered a swing state. Its considered a pretty solid red state.