Tomorrow...We will hear that Obama won Texas...

[CoffeeCat]

I was a delegate to the Iowa County Convention that was held three weeks ago. I don't know if
people remember, but Obama GAINED NINE additional delegates from Iowa at this County Convention.

What does this mean? Iowa selected our delegates at the caucuses--Jan 3. That means--from Jan 3
(the date of the Iowa caucus), to mid-March (the date of the Iowa County Convention), Obama gained
these nine additional delegates.

That's a significant gain! A lot of it was due to Edwards supporters throwing their support to Obama.
However, I spoke with many Hillary delegates who were going for Obama. They all mentioned her "endorsement"
of McCain and insulting remarks about Obama as reasons for defecting.

Furthermore, Clinton constantly insults the caucus process. She whines and claims that the caucuses
are unfair. Guess what? Many delegates are Dem party loyalists who organize the caucuses, volunteer
at them and work hard to ensure their fairness. Lying about the caucuses and insinuating that they
"disenfranchise" isn't exactly a compliment to those delegates who see that she's throwing the caucuses
(and those volunteers) under the bus for her own political gain. Not smart.

Clinton has campaigned dirtier and harder in the past month, plus her "sniper fire" stories have taken
a toll. Her negatives are climbing (WSJ/NBC) and Obama now has a 7-point lead in the Gallup national poll.
I predict that tomorrow will show significant loss of Clinton support.

As the final numbers come in for Texas, it will become crystal clear that not only did Hillary lose
Texas, but Obama gained delegates since the initial Texas caucus.

This is significant, because it signifies that Dems are breaking for Obama and it further crystallizes the
fact that she can't win.

Hillary tried to force the state Texas Democrat Party to delay the County Convention. The Texas Democrat
Party rebuffed Clinton's efforts.

Clinton knows that the trends in Iowa will be repeated in Texas.

The party she threw after winning in Ohio and Texas--will look foolish now. The delegates that Obama
gains tomorrow in Texas, would wipe out most of her delegate gains in Pennsylvania---if she does win that
contest.

Is it any wonder she tried to force the Texas Democrat Party to delay tomorrow's County Convention?

Tomorrow will be a devastating day for Clinton.

[adoraz]

1. anyone know what time results come in?

should be fun :)

[CoffeeCat]

3. I'm sure some Texans...

...will chime in.

In Iowa, we started in the morning, and we finished around 2.

It depends on how things are run in Texas, but I imagine we'll hear results
by late afternoon.

Should be very interesting.

[tammywammy]

4. Hopefully tomorrow night

But Collin County (north of Dallas) had to move their convention to Sunday.

[babylonsister]

7. Check this link tomorrow:

http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5455

[Melissa G]

64. Current numbers

Texas Democratic caucus delegate apportionment
By The Associated Press

Here is the apportionment so far of presidential caucus delegates to the Texas Democratic state convention based on reports from Saturday's county and senate district conventions. A total of about 7,300 delegates were expected to be selected in this stage of the caucus process, according to the Texas Democratic Party.

These results are from 139 of about 280 conventions.

Clinton: 1,196 or 44 percent

Obama: 1,552 or 56 percent.

[ampad]

2. K&R

I cannot wait until tomorrow.

[autorank]

5. K*R

[eleny]

6. k r

[Unsane]

8. The sad thing? Clinton STILL stays in.

[CoffeeCat]

9. Yes, but she'll go into PA...

...severely damaged.

When an Obama Texas win becomes official, there will be some backtracking by the media.
They'll show Hillary at her, "Yay! I won Texas and Ohio!" gala celebration--as confetti
rains down on her. Then, they'll discuss how she really didn't win at all.

She'll go into PA with her "wins" re-examined.

With her credibility and trustworthiness torn to bits, due to Snipergate, this will
incite questions about the credibility of her campaign--without that Texas win.

[anamandujano]

17. She did win the Texas primary. It was the caucuses, the second

votes that Obama took.

He cannot claim that he won the Texas primary.

[DerekJ]

20. Hillary won the primary...Obama won the Caucus..Add them together

And Obama wins the overall number of delegates.

It's like this:
A contest offers 20 points total.
In the first half of the contest Hillary won 6 points,and Obama won 4 points.

In the second half Obama won 7, Hillary won 3.

Hillary won the first half, and Obama won the second half. But over all, he gained 11 points, she gained 9. So he WINS.

You can’t say I won the first half of the match so we split it. The winner is the one with the most points at the end.

[anamandujano]

22. And how many voters did the primary represent? And how many voters

did the caucuses represent.

That matters.

[DerekJ]

31. Obama wins regardless of how you slice it.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5304476

[anamandujano]

32. Obama loses if the fight is fair.

[DerekJ]

33. I just made it "fair". He still wins,

[Name removed]

35. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[DerekJ]

38. look anamandujano.

Did I call you any names? I put in front you a case that refutes your premise. Show me where did I go wrong, and I will concede.

[anamandujano]

43. You didn't refute my premise

which is that Hillary won the representative primary, millions of voters, and Obama won the caucuses, extremely non-representative. Now we hear of delegates doing their own thing when they were elected to represent others.

Add to that his penchant for winning caucuses and his successful foot dragging to shut down re-votes in Florida and Michigan.


You can call that a win, I call it cheating.

[druidity33]

46. really

If Clinton (and by extension you and her supporters) had such a huge problem with "caucuses", why did she not mention ANYTHING about it until she started LOSING them?

Problem with the system? Why did she not work to change caucus issues BEFORE she ran for the candidacy? When you try to change the rules after they have long been written (what Clinton is doing) THAT is cheating.

You know as well as anyone else here that the State Dem Parties of FL and MI are at fault here. They WERE TOLD WHAT THE PENALTY WOULD BE for early primaries. THEY CHOSE TO IGNORE the warnings. In Florida Dems LAUGHED about it on the floor of the House.

They both broke the rules. If they want a re-vote they should pay for it themselves and FOLLOW THE RULES like everyone else did. Dean said he was fine with that, so did Obama. It's the Firehouse Primary funded by the DNC instead of the State Party that they are both against. MI and FL do not want to have to pay for their mistakes.

I'm personally in favor of seating all the delegates from MI and FL in a 50% to 50% capacity. Everyone gets a seat, nobody has to pay, even split.

Would you agree to that? What about your candidate, would she?

:shrug:

[anamandujano]

59. Obama did not earn 50% so he can't have it. He dragged his feet

on a re-vote knowing he would lose big again. It stands to reason that if his internal polling showed he could get the 50%, which would bring him within striking distance of the magic number, he would go for it.

The race has always been run with caucuses. No candidate would start out pointing out the non-representational nature. Kucinich challenged his unfair lack of media coverage. He had zip to lose. Even Edwards, who suffered badly at his lack of coverage did not challenge them. Basically, no one wants to open a can of worms until it becomes necessary.

Now that everyone knows how unfair these caucuses are, I doubt they will be around much longer. It's a ridiculous way to get the voter's will.

[druidity33]

70. are you

then advocating changing the rules in the middle of the contest?

Because THAT'S CHEATING.

Regardless of where caucuses are next year, they are here NOW.

:shrug:

[WolverineDG]

74. He won fair & square

Hillary trumpets her "35 years of experience" in Texas going back to the McGovern campaign in 1972 & Bill's runs for President in 1992 & 1996. She can't claim she didn't know the rules. The one who wins is the one who gets the most delegates. Obama got the most delegates. He won. She lost. Get over it.

dg

[CoffeeCat]

44. Obama will be able to claim that he won Texas...

As you well know---winning Texas is a two-step process: 1.) The Primary, and 2.) The caucus.

The combined "scores" of these two steps, gives us the winner.

Obama will win Texas. He will garner more delegates than Clinton.

Yes, you are right--Hillary won the primary; Obama will win the caucus by a large
enough margin to take the entire state of Texas.

[SoCalDem]

54. Primaries are ALL about delegates, so the popular vote should not even be used

to "prove" a win.. If someone "wins" the popular vote (like she did in Nevada), but the 2nd place ends up with more delegates 13-12, then did the first place in popular (non-counting) votes really "win"?

It kind of reminds me of the figure skating scoring.. A skater may do all the fancy jumps, but not gracefully, and be beaten by a skater with less adventurous jumps, but a more gracefully done routine

[TheDonkey]

10. k+r

[WillyT]

11. K & R !!!

:kick:

[EFerrari]

12. This year is so weird. I'm happy for Obama and, I'm sad for Clinton.

[quakerboy]

13. I hope you are correct

But I have found that patience trumps expectation in this race.

[readmoreoften]

14. Probably. Poor people, old people, and working class folks couldn't take off twice in one day.

My 80 year old grandmother in law couldn't stand for hours to caucus and neither could her friends. My partner couldn't take off from work to return for caucusing after already having taken off to vote. Voting twice is the dumbest most disenfranchising load of BS I've ever encountered. It benefited young people living in urban areas close to their polling stations. Rural people. the sick, working people, and the elderly are at a disadvantage. College students, city folks, and healthy wealthy folks run a plus.

[DerekJ]

23. How is that unique to Hillary?!!

Stop the whining. Those are the rules, have been the rules for decades, if you can't win using them, then you are not fit to be the president.

[blogslut]

29. I guess I don't fit your profile

I am a single mother without a car who lives in a small town. I walked to my caucus and even ended up being elected precinct secretary. Of course, I did take advantage of Texas' early voting period. Our state had record numbers for early voting and polling stations were open seven days a week for it. Maybe you should have taken your grandmother to vote early.

[SoCalDem]

55. ONE day..every 4 years is not that hard to plan for

I saw chairs..lots of chairs at every caucus place and lord knows both candidates had transportation out the wazoo for anyone who needed it..

[WolverineDG]

75. Lots of poor, old, & working class folks at both my precinct & county conventions

So stop with your whining about these folks being disadvantaged because of the caucus system. Where there's the will, there's the way. BTW, in Austin, a fellow DUer reported that a married couple showed up to caucus, even though the wife's father had died THE DAY BEFORE. If *THEY* could make it to a day-long caucus, ANYONE could.

dg

[anamandujano]

15. So, you're saying that pledged delegates for Hillary changed to Obama

after the voters they were chosen to represent clearly stated their will?

"However, I spoke with many Hillary delegates who were going for Obama. They all mentioned her "endorsement"
of McCain and insulting remarks about Obama as reasons for defecting."

[Bongo Prophet]

18. Some Obama delegates could change because of Wright or some other issue

The rules in Texas allow this. Would that bother you?
Perhaps a resolution should be proposed about that...

Are you a Texas delegate Ana? You are in San Antonio area, right?
It would be great if you can post about your experiences down there!
Maybe in the Texas forum - that way it would not sink too fast - we won't be home till late, I think (north Tx district 12)

good luck!:hi:

[anamandujano]

19. No I'm not a delegate. What I'm looking for is clarification that PLEDGED

delegates, who were chosen to represent a good number of voters, just decided to go against those they represent.

That is what I read from the OP about Iowa.

That's all I want to know.

Edit to add--yes, it would bother me. Many of us were voting in our first caucus and thought that delegates would be honorable.

I also think that this was planned in advance by Obama people.

[Bongo Prophet]

28. Too bad, I think you would have been a good delegate, or at least a tenacious one.

As Hillary said herself, pledged delegates can vote their conscience. She has even encouraged this.

Here is Hillary, in an interview with Newsweek:
"There are elected delegates, caucus delegates and superdelegates, all for different reasons, and they're all equal in their ability to cast their vote for whomever they choose. Even elected and caucus delegates are not required to stay with whomever they are pledged to. This is a very carefully constructed process that goes back years, and we're going to follow the process."

So, Hillary is of the opinion that they can "not be honorable", as you put it.


Now, how you think Obama supporters would pledge as Clinton supporters, and then switch later, is far too complicated a plot for me to follow. Why would they not just vote for Obama and get the delegates right then? Maybe if you studied up and actually went through it, it would be less of a mysterious process that you could imagine such byzantine plots.

I plan to share snacks and have nice discussions with both Clinton and Obama supporters tomorrow. Too bad that you see it so divisively. You miss out on a lot that way. We are all democrats, following rules already set, and with mutual respect.

[anamandujano]

34. Hillary made that remark to state the rules. She did not ever say

she would do that. She has been lambasted here by people saying she would poach the votes. Now we have evidence that delegates have just taken it upon themselves to blow off the people they were elected to represent.

My problem is that none of us knew this and I think Obama's people planned a cheat all along.

Spare me your passive aggressive "mutual respect" crap and have a good time cheating the nation again.

[Bongo Prophet]

39. Regardless of your namecalling, our precinct will be civil to each other.

We will all be representing our respective candidates, and I don't think any of either side are switching. Ms. Prophet made some fudge, and we called everyone on both sides to inform them of parking fees, a changed sign in time, weather updates, etc. We are giving one person a ride, and would have done two, but she can't go...

I nominated a Clinton supporter to replace my chair position just so we could have one supporter each in chair/secretary roles.
We checked each other's math, etc.
In the real world, it is not so divisive as GDP, believe it or not.

These are nice people, it seems to me. My librarians, our neighbors, a grad student, etc.
People. Not enemies.
If you prefer war and rancor, I can't stop you, but I do think you miss out on the good side of humanity when you are so bitter.

[anamandujano]

60. What name did I call you? You called me bitter. Oops.

Nice to hear you had a good time.

[Bongo Prophet]

69. You called my attitude of mutal respect "crap" and said I was "cheating the nation"

We did have a good time, although it was tiring and long. Our Hillary and Obama supporters enjoyed each others' company. In our district, both Hillary and Obama supporters danced together to pass the time while they were counting up delegates. Black, white , Hispanic, asian - gay and straight and whatever.People were clapping and laughing together, the main theme was that we were family! I loved it!

I apologize for implying that you are bitter, but I really don't know how to respond to an accusation of cheating. That really hurts, because I respect democracy and fairness to a degree that totally transcends candidate preference.

My fellow precinct folks are truly awesome people. One is a professional clown and does all sorts of charity work. She is a gem of a person. Could I dislike her just for liking Hillary? Hell, no! We ARE family! And we will be together in November, no matter the nominee.We will fight side by side for a common cause.

I do hope you get to see the positive in some Obama people, and to have the chance to be a part of that positive vibe that comes from going beyond our differences to celebrate our commonalities. It is very special, and very uplifting. And it gives us strength to defeat the fascists this November.

I am too tired and have a tremendous headache after 14 hours of convention, but hope to put up a post with some pics of the event tomorrow, maybe in the Texas forum.

Peace to you, anamandujano.
I mean that sincerely.

[Diane R]

47. Ask your own candidate if it's fair. Just this week she said pledged delegates are fair game.

[L0oniX]

50. Exactly.

[WolverineDG]

76. The rules allow it

Oh yeah, that's right. You follow the rules when it's to your benefit & when it's not, you change them mid-stream (aka cheat).

dg

[dailykoff]

16. The more she campaigns the more we find out about her

and the more we or at least I want her out of politics altogether. Maybe one of her media friends can give her a chat show? :shrug:

[nebula]

21. Night of the Living Dead

No matter how many nails you put in her coffin, she just won't die!

[L0oniX]

51. Caption: "Why didn't you tell me the phone was ringing at 3 am?" You're fired!

[SoCalDem]

56. Ring ring ring

(scene: 3 am white house.. HRC sits patiently in the dark, wearing a nice suit, necklace and glasses)


Hello:

Hey Baby...whatcha wearin'?

Goddammit Bill, you dialed the red phone again..

[TexanDem]

24. K&R

[crankychatter]

25. I think so too BUT (not to rain on the parade)

Monday we'll hear that HRC legal team has filed to delay certification based upon what THEY will swear, are improprieties in the Texas Caucus... or some OTHER shenanigans... to keep an illusion of momentum going into PA.

This will be loud and it will be long and it will be repeated, ad flipping nauseum.

I'm with you though... serious beans.

[VolcanoJen]

26. You know, I'm so proud of the work you did in Iowa!

Iowa was the moment when Obama supporters realized this wasn't just a dream, a fluke, a slim shot at the presidency.

Your words must be so encouraging to those great Texas Conventioners! Thank you, always, TwoSparkle!

The whole world watched Iowa, you know. :-)

[crankychatter]

27. k n r

yup

[Tom Rinaldo]

30. So you support claiming victory by having delegates overturn the popular will

Interesting position for Obama supporters to take. Are you claiming that the popular will in Texas supports Obama? They actually had a vote in Texas and Clinton won it. Later a much smaller group of Democrats, a subset of the Texans who voted in the primary, not new voters, overturned the results by throwing support to Obama. It is legal, it is within the rules, so the popular will in Texas doesn't count. Where's the outrage?

[anamandujano]

36. We will see some outrage if Hillary goes public with evidence. She

will be called everything in the book, including everyone's favorite, Racist.

Running against Obama is even more annoying than running against Repukes. What a con artist.

[KansasVoter]

53. Hillary people are really poor losers. Just like Hillary!

[anonymous171]

68. If Hillary can't beat him, then she definately won't be able beat the repukes

What evidence? You mean the youtube video?

[Schema Thing]

40. Oh please you're too smart for that dumbass post

It was the system in place, and Hillary voters are just as much a part of that system as Obama voters.

There is no inherent advantage for one candidate or the other in caucuses. In fact, "popular will" is exactly what drove people in my area to stand around outside for two hours waiting for the last voters to leave so we could overcrowd into a gym and have the chaotic caucus. And if Hillary is attracting the "traditional dem", then those are exactly the people who should have some prior knowledge of the Democratic party system for it's primary in Texas (and elsewhere too, for that matter).

I'm a smart enough guy, and I just don't see the basis for the Hillary supporters bitches about caucuses, EXCEPT that her voters aren't motivated enough by her - THAT is the only factor that is making a difference.

Hell, I thought the texas caucus was a joke, but it was as much a joke on me (getting there on time w/o having eaten, not enough warm clothes) as it was on any Hillary supporter.

[anamandujano]

37. You have just given first hand evidence of elected delegates

blowing off the people they were chosen to represent. I hope the people of Iowa call those "individuals" on it. This contest looks more Repuke like every time we get a new picture.

Aren't you wonderful with your smug reporting that Obama has received delegates THAT HE DID NOT EARN.

It becomes more and more obvious that he is stealing the nomination with technicalities.

You may now stop talking about anyone overturning the will of the people, since that is what is happening and that is what you are cheering on.

[CoffeeCat]

45. These comments from a Hillary supporter are rich...

So, you must disagree with Hillary when she constantly points out that pledged
delegates can "change their minds." She's put that out there a great deal this
past week, suggesting that those pledged delegates are fair game, and that she
is entitled to go after them.

So, do you agree or disagree with Hillary's view on these pledged delegates?

Also, Obama is not "stealing" these delegates, or as you said, "stealing the nomination with technicalities."

The caucus process is a long, drawn-out one. As Hillary said (and I agree with her...what she is stating is fact!),
these pledged delegates are not bound to vote for one candidate. This open process allows the delegates to change
their minds, should something extraordinary happen--as the months of this primary process unfolds.

For example, let's say that Obama murdered his campaign communications director. Should those pledged delegates
continue to support him, just because they were initially Obama delegates? The system allows wiggle room, to account
for attitude shifts.

Obviously--there has been a shift in attitude against Clinton and that attitude is growing. Those delegates in
Iowa who switched from Hillary ---> Obama represent many others who feel the same way. The shift is happening
because Hillary's behavior has caused many Democrats to view her more negatively.

Also, the Super Delegates are overwhelmingly breaking for Obama over Clinton. The pledged delegates are reflecting
what is happening with the Super Delegates and America in general. They are not going against the tide. The are
a REFLECTION of that growing tide.

The reason this is happening, is because of Hillary's Clinton's lack of foresight. She decided to campaign dirty,
attack and fabricate those outrageous sniper-fire lies. People are turning away from her--because of her actions.
The people are reflecting back her failures.

Furthermore, as an Iowan who lives in a caucus state--I can tell you that Hillary's constant stream of caucus
bashing doesn't exactly help her case. Most of the delegates are seasoned Dem party loyalists. Many of them
work months on those caucuses and volunteer--trying to make the caucuses as fair and accessible as possible. Many
provide childcare, drive people to the caucus and work through call lists. Some Dem candidates have won the
Iowa caucuses and many have lost. Never before, has a candidate swung the hatchet into the caucus process like
Hillary. She looks like a sore loser who is willing to throw our process (and all of the people involved in it)
under the bus for her own selfish, political purposes.

So, now you and her supporters whine when these delegates chang their minds? Oh please. Let's not feign
outrage, and wonder why it's all going down the drain--when the reasons are so crystal clear.

The will of the people IS being reflected in these delegates.

These delegates are a microcosm of reality. You might not like it, but it IS fair and it is an accurate representation
of the electorate.

[Diane R]

48. You always write the best posts........

[L0oniX]

52. Excellent. n/t

[anamandujano]

61. You're doing well with your right wing talking points.

I don't agree that there has been "a shift in attitude against Clinton," nor that "the Super Delegates are overwhelmingly breaking for Obama."

That is Repuke like spin that's been going on for weeks to get Hillary (with half the votes) to step down. God forbid a fair contest get in the way of Obama's installment.

Delegates, who were chosen to represent a number of voters do not represent a microcosm unless they take another vote. It's not like a poll. If they had planned in advance to throw their vote to Obama no matter what, that is cheating.

[AlinPA]

41. Certainly not in the MSM. Doubt they will mention it,

[quantass]

42. Sad, but true -- funny how MSM is always so selective -- never about facts, just entertainment

[totodeinhere]

71. Wrong, CNN and MSNBC have both already mentioned it this morning.

[AlinPA]

77. Good, I'm wrong. Thanks.

[nxylas]

49. Texas doesn't count

It used to count, but now it's just sexist.

[thevoiceofreason]

63. And now we are not counting with authority.

[ampad]

57. Looks like you were right

:toast:

[goclark]

62. I adore Texas! I was there last summer

and Houston was wonderful.

We went to a wedding and had a beautiful time, so much to do, fabulous restaurants and the people were so warm and friendly.

:bounce:

Thank you Texas for loving Obama so much!:loveya:

[theredpen]

65. You went to Houston in the summer and enjoyed it?!

Next time, try Austin or San Antonio in the fall.

[goclark]

73. Sure then, I only went out of the hotel to get in the

the car in the day time. :)

At night it was great!

[liberaldem4ever]

58. K & R!!

[StevieM]

66. In your dreams. Texas will remain listed by all media outlets as a Clinton victory, just like Nevada

eom

[ampad]

67. Thanks for kicking the thread

I'll go ahead and give it another for good measure.:kick:

[greguganus]

72. me too. "eom goes here". eom