Latest Zogby Poll has *ush dropping like a rock

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

gotta love it, even if it is just May!

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=826

[wryter2000]

1. I do love it

Now on to a fabulous convention and a big bump for us. Then, a disaster in NY for *, and we'll be dancing in the streets in November.

[skooooo]

4. What do you think NY will be like?

Any thoughts on the RNC and what the city will be like?

[deepcover]

7. worm in the apple

a week of negative focus on nyc. the country watching, waiting for a chicago replay. the delegates hiding their badges when leaving their temple, ashamed of what they have come to represent. and a very small man with lots of makeup and strings paraded around a stage to the tune of a devils fiddle while a few miles away if you listen hard enough you can hear lady liberty crying....beneath her burlap hood.

[David Dunham]

8. Ny had better be peaceful. Violent protests will help Bush.

[skooooo]

9. ..I don't think people will want to fight the police...

...after 9/11 and all. I just hope the voices of the protestors are shown and heard and not hidden away in typical Republian fashion.

fascists!

[prodigal_green]

17. They'll probably end up expressing surprise that

we didn't kill each other, like they did in 1993, 2001 and during last year's blackout. Personally, I'm getting pretty sick of being praised for not resorting to cannibalism every time something goes wrong on a citywide scale.

We know how to behave in large crowds, even when we're pissed off.

Any trouble will come from outside agitators, probably from the Republican party.

[wryter2000]

11. What I'm hoping

Huge, peaceful protests. I think much will depend on how the police behave. If they handle things well, it'll be a massive, uplifting thing to see.

[prodigal_green]

18. the police

have applied for a protest permit for themselves. I don't think they'll start anything, they're usually pretty cool during protests.

[wryter2000]

21. Good for them

I think the police will be totally cool. I predict the whole thing will be a very positive thing for our country.

[belle]

44. Hopefully NOT like Chicago, but i doubt it'll be all Woodstock 1969 either

For one thing, it's August in New York. Ever been? NOT pleasant. Hot, humid, stagnant. And this is supposed to be the hottest August on record. And then there's all the traffic and congestion. I think the subways will be backed up for hours, and certainly local traffic in Manhattan will be. People will not be happy campers, whether officially protesting or not. I think I'm going to take a powder, myself.

[ACK]

2. Wow. Notice that Kerry's percentage numbers hold steady.

But Bush's percentage numbers drop.

People as the press keep saying do not know Kerry and they are not willing to throw their little undecided asses out there and vote for him, yet.

Gosh, these are interesting times.

[skooooo]

3. numbers reversed in 3 weeks....

Just three weeks ago his approval was 53%...he's lost 9 points in 3 weeks.


WAY TO GO GEORGE!

[deepcover]

5. there's a smell in the air, and it ain't christmas

with this new low, the press now has reason to smell blood and pull their collective heads out of their asses (did you just hear a popping sound?) and go after this abomination we call *, like hungry dogs they will circle him now nipping and biting, seeking a weak spot. he stands on a knifes edge with hell waiting for him on both sides. personally i hope he falls and straddles that knife.

[MoonRiver]

30. I love your prose deepcover!!

Welcome to DU, home of the still free!! :hi:

[FreakinDJ]

6. Shaking lose the die hards

When asked if President Bush "deserves to be re-elected", 41.8% of likely voters (down from 43% last month) responded positively, while the majority (52.7%) say that it is "time for someone new"

even the Freeper types are ready to jump off the band wagon now.

The whole Iraqgate controversy is proving too much for them now

[Doosh]

10. I bet they regret having to gooop convention in NYC

It would've helped them to have it in a swing state city like Milwaukee or Portland. I'm not thrilled with us having it in Boston either.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

12. Us in Boston is dreadful.

I have no idea what the DNC was thinking. Why not plaster a big "Elitist Snot" banner behind Kerry? Why not just scream "Gay Marriage" every damn day?

Cincinnati, Philly, Chicago, even Detroit would have been far better choices.

Oh well, too late now. Hopefully it won't matter.

[Paradise]

13. Don't worry, "pragmatist", be happy!

It's going to be, and anywhere we are is WONDERFUL! ;-)

[Lefty Pragmatist]

14. Hey, I'd do it from the surface of the Sun...

...if it resulted in getting rid of this current administration.

[Paradise]

16. oops, this was meant for you, lefty. (i posted it to myself in error.)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=527868&mesg_id=528001

[Paradise]

15. :) Just wished for us to

"SLEEP WELL" as 'they' so kindly bid! Welcome to DU! :hi:

[Paranoid_Portlander]

37. Do you mean Portland, Maine?

"...a swing state city like Milwaukee or Portland." Bush is very unpopular here in Portland, Oregon. Oregon might be a swing state because of Bush fans outside of Portland.

[wubbathompson]

19. Does everyone not see the bad news in this poll

No matter how bad Iraq and the Economy have gotten, Kerry CANNOT pull significantly ahead. The economy, by all estimations will be much better by the end of the summer and Iraq likely cannot get any worse. Kerry is probably going to lose so long as Bush can pull something out of his ass in Iraq and if we are out of Iraq by June 30 that is plenty of time to recover in the polls and even pick up some anti-war votes

[July]

20. No, I don't see it.

You don't know any more than I do what the economy will do. What we do know is that the Bush job numbers are fuzzy math. Gas prices are up. Layoffs continue.

Iraq can TOO get worse. Civil war can erupt, for example. The loss of the administration's credibility will prevent them from declaring, "WOO-HOO, Iraq is free." The press is finally reporting that the Iraqis aren't buying what we're selling, and that our troops and our control of Iraq will continue after the phony handoff date.

Bush can't gain without doing something right for a change or by cheating. If I had to guess, I'd say he'll try the latter.

And, yeah, Kerry CAN pull ahead. He's still a fairly unknown quantity and Bush can't beat him in the polls after spending a boatload of money. The more exposure Kerry gets, the more Bush suffers.

You're the only one seeing bad news. It's not over yet, but we don't have reason to despair.

[wubbathompson]

23. Look, anyone but Kerry would be up over 15 points right now

and being an "unknown quantity" in mid may is a bad bad thing. Almost all economists agree that the economy has finally turned the corner, therefore leaving up with Iraq. So if we turn tail on June 30th and head home, most of the morons will forget about Iraq by November meaning Kerry better have about a ten point lead by the end of June or he WILL lose. I don't want to see it at all, hell, I just gave Kerry $500 of my hard earned money the other day.

[lancdem]

28. It takes time for the electorate to switch allegiances

Pollster Andrew Kohut wrote about that in the N.Y. Times last week. First they sour on the incumbent, then they embrace the challenger. It's not simultaneous. That second phase is only starting.

Presidents with approval ratings of 42 percent don't win elections. They lose in landslides. And when people turn on a president in his fourth year in office, they're almost impossible to get back.

[elperromagico]

38. Clinton was at 25% at this point in 1992,

losing even to Perot, and the economy was showing signs of improving. But Bush still lost.

Meanwhile, Kerry has a lead in several polls - not a huge lead, but a lead nevertheless - and Bush's numbers are slipping. I'm not ready to break out the champagne, but I'm feeling more optimistic than I was a year ago.

[July]

40. Compared to others opposing incumbents in the past, Kerry is ahead.

See www.thehill.com/mellman/051204.aspx

So, I don't agree that anyone but Kerry would be up over 15 points right now.

Some people may go back to Bush IF everything plays out the way you describe it (improving economy, leaving Iraq). But that's a big if, and an "improving" economy that is just slightly better or an exit from Iraq that is not really an exit may not help Bush at all. And some people are never going back -- this administration has jumped the shark for them. If Bush has less support than he did the last time -- and there are several disaffected subgroups among former Bush supporters -- Bush can't win without cheating.

[shimmergal]

52. Economists and statistics don't mean much

in shaping people's "take" on the economy. IMO, it's dubious whether those new jobs are real, and in any event they're mostly McDonald's type jobs rather than well-paying jobs with a future. Come August, the average family is likely to feel really pinched by the price of gas, and by the other price jumps that result. It'll be harder to pull extra money out of their home by refinancing. Not to mention the insecurity of anybody in a job that can be outsourced. I think we'll have a great case against the Repubs for causing economic misery. If we can just make the case over the noise of propaganda.

[Mountainman]

22. Bull crackers CNN poll Kerry 51% Bush 46%

Go sell your sob story somewhere else.


The Time/CNN poll showed 51 percent of likely voters favored Kerry, a Massachusetts senator, over the Republican president, who had 46 percent of support.


http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20040516/ts_alt_afp...

[wubbathompson]

24. LOL

What does "bull crackers" mean?

[Mountainman]

29. It's a polite way of saying bull shit

[wryter2000]

25. Respectfully disagree

The "economy" continues to improve, but the economic picture for Joe Sixpack doesn't get any better. Joe Sixpack is starting to figure out that corporations are pocketing the profits.

Things can get much worse in Iraq. If we lose some more cities, that's not going to sit well with the sheeple.

As some columnist has pointed out, Kerry's numbers are a floor for him while Bush's are a ceiling.

You're right we shouldn't get complacent, though.

[lancdem]

27. Challlengers are NEVER far ahead

at this point in the campaign. Bush's approval rating is 42 percent, and that's his share of the vote against Kerry. Eleven percent are undecided, and they will go overwhelmingly to Kerry.

[Hippo_Tron]

33. He hasn't tried yet...

He has 100 million just sitting there for when he needs it. Kerry will pull ahead, be patient.

[demosincebirth]

26. This is the only poll I trust.

It came within less than 1/2percent predicting Gore to win.

[DaveSZ]

31. Let's agree to disagree

Both the major parties picked horrible places for their conventions.

Boston is the worst possible place the Dems could have picked.

[Sparkly]

36. I don't know what that's got to do with the poll but

I think it's great the convention's going to be in Boston.

[CRYINGWOLFOWITZ]

32. same thing happened to clinton in 1992 and reagan in 1980

At this point in 1992, GHW Bush's approval was around 40%, but he was ahead of Clinton by 10%. At this point in 1980 Reagan was below Carter in matchups, even though Carter's approval was around 40% as well. The matchups don't tell you what the approval does. Matchups are more easily changed and short term with fewer implications then the presidential approval. At this point in 1996 Clinton's approval was above 50% and increasing. After the 1996 SOTU, Clinton never fell behind Dole. He was always ahead by between 15-20%. Same situation with Reagan in 1984.

[Beetwasher]

34. 58% Dissaproval!! Kerry's Lead Is HISTORICAL in the Matchup

Wow! How do you come back from that? I don't think you can.

The big story is the fact that a challenger is this far ahead in a head to head matchup at this time. That's practically UNHEARD OF! It's a HUGE story and yet the spin is "why is Kerry not doing better". That ABSURD. His lead at this point is AMAZING and HISTORIC!

[Sparkly]

35. Even Schneider said that on CNN today

Much to my surprise, Schneider compared approval ratings with eventual election results and said it's looking bad for the Chimp. I couldn't believe my ears!

[dusty64]

39. These numbers

seem to mirror the newsweek poll. Glad to see some coming to their senses, lets hope it continues.

[dusty64]

41. You gotta love those

disapproval numbers.


George W. Bush
May 10-13%
April 15-17 %
April 1-4 %
March 17-19 %

Approve
42
48
47
46

Disapprove
58
53
53
53

Undecided
0
1
0
1

[HFishbine]

42. Any explanation for this?

According to the poll, Bush receives 63% of the Asian vote, more than any other racial demographic (even white).

Why?

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

43. A truck load of Kool Aid was mixed in with a batch of soy sauce

:beer:

[paulk]

46. Asian cultures are conservative?

I don't know, really, but I have heard this before. It's a common misconception that just because they're minorities Asians vote for Democrats. I have two friends active politically in their communities, one Japanese the other Chinese - and they both complain about this all the time. Many older members of those communities are registered Republican.

[seasat]

47. Taiwanese vote and postions against China

Some Taiwanese support Shrub because they think he'll stand up more towards China. I think that position is BS because Shrub will back the corporate sweatshops in China before he'll back the Taiwanese. However, Kerry hasn't really addressed the Taiwan/China issue so I think he has a chance to win some of them over.

[Claire Beth]

45. I'm enjoying every moment of it and...

hoping he drops even more!

[Nicholas_J]

48. And one of the few national polls

That had BUsh a little ahead, Rasmussen, jost reveresed today, with Kerry at 45 percent, BUsh at 43.

[LiberalFighter]

49. I just created a flyer for the back window

one side:
Bush 42%
Americans 58%


other side:
Iraq... a Mistake
Bush... a Mistake

[LiberalFighter]

50. Did you all see USAToday's Gallup article

Voters 1st decision is whether to fire the president Only after that is the choice Bush vs. Kerry

A USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll taken May 7-9 put his approval rating at 46%, the lowest of his presidency. Since 1948, the four presidents who won second terms had ratings of 52% or better in the Gallup Poll in May of the election year. The three who lost had ratings of 47% or worse.

[osaMABUSh]

51. Wow - didya see those numbers for the Blue & Red states?

Kerry up by 10 in the Blues, tied in the Reds:

"In the Blues States, those that were won by former Vice-President Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election, Kerry receives 49.1% of support, as compared to Bush with 38.4%. In Red States Kerry and Bush are statistically tied with 45%. The results here are reflective of a polarized and partisan electorate."

Not sure what that last comment means - yes, we are polarized but the Red/Blue numbers don't really show that.

Anyway, if we win a couple a Red states, we could be talking landside...

I know, I know, a long way to go but the electoral map is looking pretty good. We all know the popular vote don't mean jack.