The 3 things Hillary has to do to win the nomination

[Herman Munster]

* win Pennsylvania by 20 points or more
* win Indiana by 10 points or more
* win North Carolina by any margin

If she does these 3 things, I think her chances of winning the nomination go even money or better and I'd have to agree with what Chris Todd said last week, Obama will have a big, big problem.

If she doesn't do these things, the superdelegates will probably decide the race in June for Obama.

These are the 3 benchmarks I am looking at to determine Hillary's viability in the upcoming races.

[MadBadger]

1. I think she will fail in at least two of those....definitely 1 and 3.

[hedgehog]

2. So, explain this basketball thing to me. If one team is ahead by 30 points,

but the other team makes the last basket, which team wins?

[BeyondGeography]

3. Not attainable, IMO, but a very reasonable assessment on your part

[LakeSamish706]

4. Amazing how the Goal Posts keep getting moved... hmmmm n/t

[mcctatas]

but I thought her firewall was Texas...

:eyes:

[earthlover]

40. The first...of many...firewall was New Hampshire!

So many firewalls, so little fire...

[stellanoir]

5. cheat lie and steal

[CBGLuthier]

7. Well then she is a lock then isn't she

Because between her and Bill (who I used to admire) they have those skills mastered.

[CBGLuthier]

8. Well then she is a lock then isn't she

Because between her and Bill (who I used to admire) they have those skills mastered.

[tekisui]

6. Those three things are not gonna happen.

Probably none of them. Maybe a win in IN.

She has won one state by 20%, her homestate. One.

[Herman Munster]

16. if you listened to DU'ers predictions

Obama would have won NH, California, Ohio, Texas.

People's predictions here are not objective. Anyone with half a brain knows that.

[Bicoastal]

26. Obama DID win Texas.

[tekisui]

30. Are you including yourself in DUer's predictions?

I wish the Clinton campaign would hold to the one you laid out.

It seems that Hillary will stay in through the last Primary. At some point, though, we will have a Nominee, and we will have a Senator.

[TheCowsCameHome]

9. Not making up "war" stories would help, too.

It does nothing but fuel the fires in the enemy camp.

[Herman Munster]

13. nobody cares about that stuff

So a lot of people don't like the Clinton's?

So what.

They still vote for her. The NBC poll had the race dead even.

[Danger Mouse]

42. just like nobody cared that gore 'invented the internet'?

it has legs, and it will hurt.

[Kahuna]

10. Turn the tears back on?

:shrug:

[BeatleBoot]

11. I don't even think she needs to do all that.

[Yukari Yakumo]

12. Even if she does do that...

Even if she does do that (she won't), she's still behind by over 100 delegates.

The only thing your scenario would accomplish is that she'll continue her scorched earth campaign all the way to the convention and we'll have a President-elect McCain in November.

[Herman Munster]

14. then that will be Obama's fault for being a weak candidate

If he can't beat her convincingly outspending her 3:1 with the media in his corner, you can't spin it any other way than he's got a lot of weaknesses as a candidate.

[1awake]

21. I can spin it alittle bit on that point..

It's fairly simple why he's not beating her convincingly.. he's running against Hillary Clinton, end of story. She may be polarizing.. she may be any one of a hundred things.. but she's still Hillary and she's still a Clinton, and that makes her a very formidable candidate, whether some people like her or not.

In any case, I like your assessment.

[papau]

15. Penn by 11 or more with white vote by 20 does it - but NC will be tough but if close

a lose would not be fatal to Hillary.

We would go onto to Indiana and West Virginia, conceding the caucus states that the college kid turn out controls - and then the poll - that national by state poll after 6/5 - would decide - with, if Obama has the "electoral votes against McCain" at that point, all the Supers going to Obama - but if a Hillary "electoral votes against McCain" win and an Obama loss by more than the MOE in that poll against McCain, or if both lose and within the MOE but with the white vote very heavy against Obama, Hillary picks up the Supers.

It will be interesting.

[Herman Munster]

19. I think they got every advantage you can imagine in Pennsylvania

* complete support of the Pennsylvania democratic establishment, including Governor Rendell, Philadelphia Mayor Nutter, and pretty much any mayor, or congressman worth a salt in the state.

* large borders with New Jersey, New York, Ohio where Hillary does very well.

* closed primary and Hillary won white demcrats in Ohio 70-30

* 3rd oldest population in the country

* less black people than Ohio

* hometown girl with father's ties to Scranton should give her a large leg up and very large margins beter than 75/25 in northeastern pennsylvania

[earthlover]

43. Based on your post, if Obama comes within 15 points, he wins!

[democrattotheend]

17. I'd say you're right

If she can win North Carolina and win Indiana big, I think she can make a credible case for buyer's remorse. I think those things are unlikely to all happen, but if they do, I think she has a good shot at the nomination. I also think if Obama can win Indiana he might be able to put it away, especially if PA is not a blowout. And I think it goes without saying that if he pulls off a miracle and wins PA by even one vote, it's over.

[greguganus]

27. She won't win NC. I don't know of anyone supporting her here

and the only signs/bumperstickers I see are Obama and McLame. Oh, I forgot...there's some guy making Ron Paul signs and putting them up and down Interstate 40. I think it's Ron Paul himself.

[PerfectSage]

18. Penn State has 103 district delegates + 55 caucus delegates....

...So Hillary won't gain at all. Obama is going to pull a Texas on Hillary. :rofl:

http://www.padems.com/about/selectionplan

[Herman Munster]

22. there are no caucus delegates in Pennsylvania

55 delegates are apportioned by popular vote statewide.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/PA-D.phtml

103 district delegates are to be allocated proportionally to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the State's 19 congressional districts.
CD 9: 3 delegates
CDs 5, 10, 16, 17, 19: 4 delegates each
CDs 3, 4, 11, 12, 15, 18: 5 delegates each
CDs 6: 6 delegates each
CDs 1, 7, 8, 13, 14: 7 delegates each
CD 2: 9 delegates

In addition, 55 delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary vote statewide.
35 at-large National Convention delegates
20 Pledged PLEOs

[PerfectSage]

46. My Bad. Your right.

I thought the "c" after the state's delegate total on real clear politics stood for "caucus". I was wrong. The "c" stands for "closed primary".

[UALRBSofL]

20. Evening Herman. How are you??

:hi:

[Herman Munster]

23. I am good

how are you :)

[UALRBSofL]

29. Herman I'm doing great myself

Just catching up on the news, reading email, stuff like that. How was your day? Have you got any good news about Hillary tonight?

[Herman Munster]

32. I'm doing well

the good news is hillary keeps fighting for every vote. She's going to be in NC tomorrow. She has 3 events.

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/hq/northcarolina/

[UALRBSofL]

36. Herman, are you in NC or are you going to any of those events?

If so take some photos for us. :)

[Hawkeye-X]

24. Ok. I'm Karnack and I'll predict as you said.....

1) Failed to win by 20. At most, Hillary will squeak by Obama by 3 points or less.
2) Failed by 20 points
3) Failed.

So therefore, Hillary will be dropping out very soon, most likely before PA, because she cannot *AFFORD* to rip more people off. Iowans are still waiting for their checks, and I would strongly recommend siccing the creditors after her - after all, Hillary supported the Bankruptcy Bill.

Hawkeye-X

[NJSecularist]

25. Those are all goals she needs to reach, but you forgot the most important goal.

And even if she reaches those three benchmarks, it is all rendered moot if, by the time all these primaries are said and done, she still hasn't surpassed Obama in the popular vote.

Hillary's only legitimate chance to have a chance to win the nomination is to win the popular vote.

[Herman Munster]

33. I think she can win the popular vote if she includes Florida since Obama's name was on the ballot

[RBInMaine]

28. This PIPEDREAM is almost as funny as Hillary's Bosnia PIPEDREAM.

[knixphan]

31. and

*Kill Pelosi and Reid
*Stop the Supers from jumping to the O-boat.

[davidpdx]

34. Damn..you beat me to it

I was going to say:

1) Knock off Howard Dean
2) Knee cap Obama
3) And grab Gore by the balls

That way she's the only candidate left, she will control the DNC and have Gore's endorsement.

[TacticalPeek]

35. If she wins or 'ties' NC, then she won't require the 20 point margin in PA, imo.

15 points would do. :)

Hell, if she wins NC that would change the dynamic so much it alone would put Obama behind the eight ball.

In which case as long as PA was a double digit win, it might still work for Clinton. In fact, my thought lately has been that if Obama is so much the presumptive bandwagon the ex-officio delegates are about to jump on, why can't he win Pennsylvania?

He's got this legendary campaign, money an R would envy, and organization etc. - why would he lose such a big race like that?

[wileedog]

37. Your forgot #4 - run Obama over with a truck

[Alexander]

38. How is she going to win NC with Obama 20 points ahead, and increasing?

Keep dreaming. She'll never be the nominee.

[Georgie_92]

39. Won't happen.

[JTFrog]

41. None of that matters after the new ad her husband just made for McCain.

http://www.johnmccain.com/pathtovictory/democrats.htm?s=google&t=electability

[Quixote1818]

44. Thats not nearly enough.

She would have to run the table winning Oregon, Montana and South Dakota. Or at least two out of three of these.

[Cali_Democrat]

45. You think she can win North Carolina?

:rofl: