Barack picks up a Hillary pledged Mississippi delegate? (Math nerd alert!)

thevoiceofreason

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Mon Mar-24-08 04:30 PM
Original message

Barack picks up a Hillary pledged Mississippi delegate? (Math nerd alert!)

Edited on Mon Mar-24-08 04:49 PM by thevoiceofreason

OK. So I spend a lot, and I mean a lot, of time on conference calls. Hours and hours a day. So, I pore over numbers and double check on things just for grins -- keeps me awake!

So, ever since the election in Mississippi, I have been following the numbers as the official results came in (having had the good news from California be my spur on this point). I think something has changed.

Enough about me -- let's see if I am right.

First, a recap:

After election night, everybody called the delegate split 19-14 Barack. This was based on the following:

Cong. Dist 1: 3-2 Hillary
Cong. Dist 2: 5-2 Barack
Cong. Dist 3: 3-2 Barack
Cong. Dist 4: 3-2 Barack

7 Statewide at large delegates: 4-3 Barack
4 Statewide PLEO at large delegates: 2-2

The election night total for Barack was 255,809 (62.16% vs. Hillary)
The election night total for Hillary was 155,686 (37.84% vs. Barack)

Although many of the splits were close, the one that stood the best chance of flipping, as I saw it, was the statewide PLEO split because Barack only need to break 62.5% to get a 3-1 split there.

Well, the results kept trickling in. I followed them on a district by district basis, hoping something big would happen (it didn't).

Then today, for the first time, the Miss. SOS posted the statewide recapitulation they had received from the democratic party. The numbers made me want to cry. Barack's new total was 265,370, Hillary's was 159,273. When held side by side (as you do in Miss., I believe) Barack now had 62.493%. CRAP. I pouted for a while, then decided, in the middle of another conference call, to compare the statewide recapitulation with individual county recapitulations (I kind of like that word - "recapitulation"). As I did, I found two counties whose numbers were different on the statewide summary as opposed to the county certification, as follows:

Hinds County actually voted 342 more for Obama, and 37 more for Clinton, than the statewide sheet showed.
Jackson County actually voted 210 fewer for Obama, and 89 lower for Clinton, than the statewide count.
Net changes: Obama +132, Clinton -52, total vote change (between the 2) +80.

Because I'm not wise to the ways of Mississippi and its vote recapitulations, I called the State Democratic Party. Their guy on the phone pulled the sheets I was referencing and said "You're right. We'll change those numbers right away."

GUESS WHAT?!? Obama's statewide vote total is (or will soon be) 265,502. Hillary's is (or soon will be) 159,221.

That means Obama's percentage is 265,502/424,723, or 62.512%. Barack will get 3 PLEO delegates to Hillary's 1!!!!!!

Barack wins Mississippi 20-13!

-Please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. I've got to go, another conference call is about to start.

I think this is the basic link:

http://www.sos.state.ms.us/elections/2008/Primary/Democratic.asp