Rasmussen-Clinton 46% Obama -44%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows ongoing volatility in the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Nationally, Hillary Clinton now holds a very slight advantage over Barack Obama, 46% to 44%. Before the story broke about his former Pastor, Obama led Clinton by eight percentage points (see recent daily results). While the national polls remain close, Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 78.0% chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at 21.8%.

Looking ahead to the General Election in November, John McCain continues to lead both potential Democratic opponents. McCain leads Barack Obama 49% to 41% and Hillary Clinton 49% to 43% (see recent daily results). New polling shows McCain leading both Democrats in Georgia and Arkansas. In Minnesota, the race is

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[Teaser]

1. back and forth we go

.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. It's Interesting

The nat'l pop vote is a push...

Again, I vote for a unity ticket...

[Teaser]

3. No argument here

I don't know if we can squeeze these two egos onto the same ticket, though.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. They Can Learn To Like One Another

~

[JackORoses]

58. Not going to happen, dude.

Your candidate is poison. She will not be on the ticket. Mark my words.

If she had shown a little grace after WI instead of being her usual selfish self, it might have happened.
But instead she took the prideful route and she will reap its rewards.

[Beacool]

76. Oh please, your guy is a slick operator.

All fluff and no substance, but there he is........

[burythehatchet]

13. It is so not interesting. What's the point of the poll? The nomination is decided.

WHy not include Gravel Dodd Kucinich Biden Edwards in the poll?

Just because your corporate media masters are shocked that their gal didn't make it, but can't seem to grapple with that reality, doesn't make her a viable candidate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. Obama Can't Win With Without Her Voters And Clinton Can't Win Without His Voters

I'm sorry your hatred has blinded you to that fact...

[burythehatchet]

25. SO you "factually" know what will come to pass? Good on you mate

I recall a time in my life when I too was a victim to such arrogance and self-exaltation. No, kid, you don't know what is going to happen, but you may keep the fantasy alive if it helps you through the day.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

54. I Have Been Picking Presidential Election Winners Correctly In March Since 68

It's not hard when you include the approriate metrics in your calculation...

[Beacool]

77. And I too have been doing this long enough to know

that either these two hold their noses and run together or we can all start to practice saying: President McCain.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

4. Obama 1408/1626 to Clinton 1251/1506

The only relevant poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. The Only Relevant Metric Is How Well They Do Against McCain

The evidence suggests their weaknesses and strengths compliment one another but if you think you can tell half the party to fuck themselves and win that's your prerogative...

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

16. What?

The Only Relevant Metric Is How Well They Do Against McCain

It's March. The democrat's numbers are down against McSame because of the internecine fighting. McSame is getting a free ride right now. That will change.

The evidence suggests their weaknesses and strengths compliment one another but if you think you can tell half the party to fuck themselves and win that's your prerogative...

Something I, nor 99% of people on this board, have never said. Pointing out that Clinton has a very, very slim chance of winning is not telling you to fuck off. It's telling you to face reality. The SD's will not overturn the primary for Clinton. That is reality. That's not "Fuck off!"

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Go back 8 months (the same distance backward as the GE is forward) and tell me what the polls said?

And that is all you need to know.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Both Of Them Are Running Fifteen To Twenty Points Behind The Generic Democrat...

That should tell you something...

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

19. Imo, it's too early. I have little faith in 8 month prognostications.

The Generic candidate always does better. He/she has no flaws.

How's the Generic Republican doing against McSame?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. Any D Should Be Pasting McCain Now

That's the point... The political environment is such that the Democrat should be doing well:

-unpopular war

-economic woes

-eight years of same party rule

In 76 Carter had a thirty three point lead that was narrowed to two and in 88 Dukakis had a seventeen point lead that turned into a eight point defecit...

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

31. And either of them will.

[Carrieyazel]

53. McCain isn't Shrub, though. He could conceivably distance himself from this misadministration.

And the war has receded from the front pages, with a few exceptions.

If Chainee was running, this would be a slam dunk for us.

I also heard a talking head mentioning that some are going to McCain even though they hate the war, and disagree with McLame on key issues. That means trouble.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

66. Most likely conceivably not.

[Carrieyazel]

52. It's early, but what it tells you is that this race is McCain's to lose.

He's starting to ramp up a GE campaign, and many Indeps and some Dems will go to him even if he's invisible in the coming weeks.
The internal Democratic situation is making their job a lot easier.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

60. if Obama as no chance to win in Nov that is exactly what the SD's will do.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

67. I'm not sure I understand.

Frightenly cryptic.

:scared:

eta: :scared:

[Misanthrope2]

30. Obama loses to McCain and Clinton wins in latest matchups.

From real clear politics. http://realclearpolitics.com/

[Seeker30]

43. And what would those numbers be if people knew about Wright 6 months ago?

There would be no numbers because Obama would have dropped out by now.

[goclark]

6. Anyone that would vote for McCain is stuck on stupid

This man is a Senior,older than I am by 10 years.

I know how I feel and most of my friends feel.

Watch the sound bits, watch his energy level ~ he is out of it.

I'm not sure he will make it to November, he can not keep up the pace, noway.

So let them keep polling all the Rethugs that have home phones and get a low count on the young who have cell phones and text messages.

Let's get out the youth vote!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Reagan Was Re-Elected At Seventy Three

I am not disagreeing with you that McCain is old...


Oh, Gallup polls people with cell phones and is getting similar results...

[goclark]

23. The youth that I know would not answer a call identified

as Gallop.
Most just respond to text messages and their friends.

[goldcanyonaz]

7. Obamas negatives are catching up to Hillarys.

I believe that most Democrats want a unity ticket. I know I fully support one and have stated this since New Hampshire.

[maddiejoan]

10. and in either order FWIW

I think the DNC has pretty much decided that the rest of the primary is for how the bumper stickers get printed.

[wileedog]

15. I just don't see how it works

Obama's platform is for change. How does that pair up with one of the most politically entrenched families in DC?

Plus he loses his advantage on Iraq.

As for Hillary, she has spent a month tearing apart Obama for not being ready to be CIC, and claiming that experence is the deciding factor in the election. How does she flip flop that and run with Obama? What does she say about her own 3am ad, or own admission that McCain is better qualified?

I can see where many say it is the only way to come out of this mess with the least damage, but its an awkward ticket at best when it comes to actually running the GE.

Plus I don't want Hillary's staff anywhere near the GE. If the Superdelegates do turn it for her there must be a requirement she fire everybody first.

[maddiejoan]

21. Then I guess Obama can kiss his Presidency bye bye.

Does he plan to shit on half the Democratic electorate?

[wileedog]

22. And vice versa

Just saying its not a strong ticket. Hardly the "Dream Ticket".

[maddiejoan]

27. yes and visa versa

politics make for strange bedfellows.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. An African American Man And A White Woman Is Risky

But if they both bring their coalitions with them it's a strong ticket:

-Working class whites

-Affluent whites

-Latinos

-African Americans

-Young people

-Females

-Older people

Seems like a winner

[Nedsdag]

32. Why the Obama hate?

Did he turn down your advances?

[maddiejoan]

33. In a way --yes.

[goldcanyonaz]

36. ....

:thumbsup:

[Nedsdag]

41. So I guess you'll be sitting home come November.

Cutting your nose to spite your face isn't becoming, McClurkin or no McClurkin.

[maddiejoan]

61. If Obama is the nominee

I'll vote for him --but I sure the fuck won't expect anything out of him besides sitting in a chair behind a desk.

After I vote for him --I'll probably throw up.

[Nedsdag]

71. Funny.

Sitting in a chair behind a desk is what I expect from Hillary, along with divided government, divided electorate, and political cynicism.

[cd3dem]

39. Many Hillary women are pissed and will not vote for Obama

I hear many people say they will not vote for Obama no matter what... his arrogance and disregard for Hillary is seen by many women as disrespectful and sexist! Young males have made the argument to me that having a black "man" elected president would help women. I disagree! electing a black "male" with less experience over a female is degrading! His callus remarks about putting Hillary on a ticket or running with her is rude and insulting to women who support her. I would have a hard time voting for him even if he asked Hillary to run with him, because I see it as putting a more qualified candidate in second because she is a woman.

[TwilightGardener]

48. Electing a "black male" over a female is degrading? What does race

have to do with it? And Hillary trailed in delegates, and yet she and Bill were the ones floating VP for Obama--you didn't find that rude and insulting?

[cd3dem]

74. electing a "male" senator with less experience than the woman is degrading!

the quote was around the "MALE" ... if you want to throw the racist crap on me I do not care! another reason I won't vote for the guy, he throws the word racist out every time he gets a chance.

Obama had two years in the senate when he announced his candidacy. He has no experience for the job and the polls show most Americans agree!

[goclark]

20. So who is going to tell Billary to stop slamming Obama

If they would just tone it down and stop the smears and stop kissing up to Gramps I would support it too but no way now.

And, I would NEVER vote for Billary unless Obama was at the top of the ticket.

As an African American, I could never support them.
They have betrayed my trust. I know that I could never give her/Bill (same person) my time or my dimes unless Barack Obama pleaded with me to do it.

We need a Dream Team that really has a Dream - like the one that Dr. King was talking about ~ and from what I see and hear,Billary is only dreaming of Clinton/Obama and that is a nightmare in my book.

Even with Obama/Clinton ~ she has been so hateful that she does not belong on a "Unity" ticket. She joins GW as a "Divider."

Nothing against you,just being honest.

You are right, a real "Dream Ticket" would absolutely assure us winning in November. That's why I'm for Obama/Boxer.

That should make all the "women" in America happy.

Peace

[maddiejoan]

35. First --calling for UNITY

while using a loaded slime term like Billary is hardly going to win you any love.

Second --I'm insulted at your implication that "women" are onl;y supporting Hillary based on her gender.

I'm supporting Hillary because she is our best choice for President.

I love Barbara Boxer BTW --and I'd rather see her as President than Mr. Obama.

[goclark]

49. I am calling them Billary because they are both running for

President this time.

He is her hit man and I am being as honest as I can be.
I respect your feelings, but since you want the Dream ticket, I was voicing my concerns about it.

And, as an African American activist and a Democrat for my entire life, I KNOW that my people helped big time to see that Bill Clinton got elected.

Review the members of Congress that were standing by their side when they were going through the IMPEACHMENT mess. As my memory serves- ALL of the Black caucus was behind them.

Jesse Jackson became his personal life support and minister at the WH.

You can point your finger at me if you want to but I am being honest.
I am trying to help your "Dream Team" and help you understand the depth of hurt/anger/disappointment that the Black community feels for them right now.

So ~ if Hillary and Bill get elected this time,they will have to court their base again, not take us for granted.

I know that with Obama out of the race, HC would think that African Americans would naturally come back to them. Well-I'm saying to you that it would have to be a new kind of math to make us support the Clinton's again with the same vigor.

Though you may not realize it, on our side, it appears
that he wants to be President again and she can't stop him
from being mean as well.

The "Dream Ticket" was coming from the mouth of Bill Clinton,not Sen.Obama.
Yet, Bill's deeds in this election process are making it a nightmare to the majority of my people.

Your put down and eyes wide shut approach to my honesty clarify my thinking and let me know that you do not value our feelings and that is exactly what I have been led to believe by Hillary and Bill Clinton.

Peace and end of discussion

You have truly inspired me to give $100 more today to Obama's campaign. I know he will need my support to keep his message out to the people that are eager to hear it.

[Nedsdag]

57. "Billary" is a "slime term?"

Then I guess "Brangelina" is a slime term as well, not that they give a hoot.

Don't get your panties in a bunch over a term of endearment.

Your inner hatred of Obama is troubling. Donnie McClurkin is not Grand High Executioner to me. And please, let's not start the McClurkin wars again. I don't hate Hillary. I just don't see her as qualified to be President of the United States. Using your husband as a political stepping stone troubles me. Before you jump on me, I am a woman who is rubbed the wrong way by her political rise.

[maddiejoan]

62. Then you are the type of woman

I laugh at behind your back.

[Nedsdag]

69. I've been laughing behind YOUR back for quite sometime.

Anyone as narrow minded as yourself deserves to have a person such as myself doing this:

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[maddiejoan]

63. Billary is a term of endearment?

:rofl:

Man --some of you Obama supporters crack me the fuck up.

:rofl:

[Nedsdag]

70. Remember "buy one, get one free?"

Who said that?

Billary has been a political partnership for over 30 years. If you don't believe me, ask Al Gore.

[cd3dem]

50. Your use of the term Billary is sexist! That is like saying "Oprama"

Like Hillary is a weak woman that needs her husband! Hillary women are sick of people like you and the sexist statements from Obama. We are tired of the race-card thrown out every time Obama is dealt a pair of two's.

[goclark]

55. I love Oprama

thanks for the new name ~ she is one strong woman.

And, since I am an African American and a woman ~ I have the right to speak my thoughts on sexism and racism.

Just calling it like I see it, I know you mean it when you are supporting the anger from your camp.

Just know that my people feel your pain,especially African American women.

Your candidate doesn't seem to care one bit for us as women or African Americans and we catch on to that --

End of discussion, I must go donate that $100 I promised to Obama today.

[cd3dem]

72. your narrow view speaks for itself.. take Oprama and have at it!

[Misanthrope2]

26. Latest Ras. negatives: Obama 50 percent; Clinton 51 percent.

However, Clinton is steady. Obama's negatives are rising. It appears the press and voter honeymoon for Obama ended with Rev. Wright.

[SoCalDem]

45. Gee she should be very proud of herself..and probably IS.

:puke:

[anonymous171]

11. Swiftboating didn't work! Now he can only go up!

[Orsino]

12. Do we have to guess what the margin of error is? Yet again? n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. I Said The Race Was A Push In The Next Post

You have two coalitions that are almost equally divided...

[Orsino]

28. So the margin of error is greater than the reported lead?

I asked about the poll rather than the popular vote.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. I Don't See Your Point

Let's say it was the night before the election and Candidate A was running against candidate B and the final polls indicated Candidate A was winning 51% to 49% if my life depeneded on picking the winner I'm going with Candidate A...

Even with a margin of error it still means the candidate that's leading is leading...

[Orsino]

37. No.

A "lead" smaller than the margin of error is a tie.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. I Said It Was A Push

There is no such thing as a statistical tie, ergo:

... In scientific polls, the pollster uses a specific statistical method for picking respondents. In unscientific polls, the person ... same percentages. And it certainly is not a “statistical tie” unless both candidates have the same exact percentages.

http://www.ncpp.org/?q=search/node/statistical+tie


What’s a Statistical Tie, Anyway?
With more than two dozen presidential primaries coming up in the next two months, tightening Democratic and Republican races, and crowds of pollsters tracking the campaign, you’re likely to hear a lot about “statistical ties” or “statistical dead heats” between the candidates. The terms already have been used in recent weeks by the Wall Street Journal, CNN.com and the New York Times.


Several polling experts told me they don’t care much for the term “statistical tie.” “It’s certainly not a term that practitioners use,” Nancy A. Mathiowetz, president of the professional group American Association for Public Opinion Research, told me. Mark Blumenthal, editor and publisher of Pollster.com, added, ” ‘Statistical tie’ is one of those expressions I wish we could do away with.”

Their gripe with the term: It suggests that the statistics indicate there is a tie between the candidates. Instead, it’s used when statistics can’t demonstrate a difference between candidates’ support. The term is used when “we lack the statistical power to know for certain which candidate is ahead,” said Mr. Blumenthal, a former longtime Democratic pollster. “It doesn’t mean we know that they are ‘tied.’ ”


http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/whats-a-statistical-tie-anyway-234/

[Orsino]

46. You said the popular vote was a push, and again, I asked you about the poll.

A statistical tie means "too close to call by our methodology," which is why it's important to ask for the margin of error...as I'm doing one more time.

Ignore leads smaller than the associated margins of error, but most importantly, examine the methodology. Even push polls can be conducted scientifically.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

51. We're Debating Semantics

I suspect if a statistician were here he would say "Candidate A is leading Candidate B but his or her lead falls within the margin of error and we can not say with total confidence Candidate A is leading or "Candidate A's lead falls within the margin of error."

That's different than saying Candidate A and Candidate B are tied...

[Orsino]

56. A statistician would not use the word "lead."

You were correct to pointing out that we're not entitled to call it a tie, either. The margin of error simply brands the methodology and/or data insufficient for reaching a conclusion.

It's simply too close to call.

[marshall]

40. What good are national polls---unless Hillary runs as a third party candidate

They might as well have Bill Clinton thrown in there--how would Obama poll if he were running against Bill Clinton? Why not poll him against Reagan or Bush? It would make as much sense as this poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. Because He's Not Running Against Them

And it's one factor the Super Delegates will have to weigh as they decide who to support...

To me the most important metric is how either Obama or Clinton run against McCain... As a Democrat that's the only metric to me that matters...

[marshall]

44. That's true, but then there could be a third person who polls even better against McCain

Why not include him or her in the poll too?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. Because They Aren't Running

I realize all the impediments to her nomination but neither can win without the Super Delegates...

[Colobo]

59. Check out the new Gallup poll.

[InsultComicDog]

64. ooo

[jackson_dem]

65. But he was going to gain 80 points after THE SPEECH--the bestest speech EVER!

:cry:

[loveangelc]

68. wow. 2 points.

[totodeinhere]

73. And the latest Gallup has O up by three points.

So essentially it's a ead heat right now. So much for dire predictions from some around here that pastoragte would sink him. As long as it is essentially tied like it is now the supers will have no good reason to abandon Obama and give it to Clinton. If they do that they can kiss the African American vote goodbye, and why do it when Obama is at least as strong as Clinton is in the polls anyway?

[xultar]

75. x