More Democrats Now Say They Want Clinton Not Obama - Hutchinson

[Alamom]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/earl-ofari-hutchinson/obamas-race-speech-didn_b_92720.html



Obama's Race Speech Didn't Matter, More Democrats Now Say They Want Clinton Not Obama
Posted March 21, 2008 | 09:39 AM (EST)
Earl Ofari Hutchinson

The one question that coursed across everyone's lips in the ad nausea yak over Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama's so-called race speech was: Did the speech help or hurt him? A Gallup poll stretched from March 14 through March 18. It was released two days after his speech. While it did not fully measure Democratic voter sentiment on the effect of the his speech, the responses in the poll on March 18 may have reflected some voter sentiment about the speech.
The results offer no cheer to Obama. In fact there are two things about the results that should cause much worry for him. One is that arch rival Clinton now tops him among Democrats and Democratic leaning voters.

This is less a stunning turnabout than it seems. Obama's much ballyhooed string of victories have come in mostly red states that the Democrats don't have a prayer of winning in the general election anyway. Meanwhile, core Democrats have continued to consistently and quietly (they're not chic, exciting, and mediagenic to the loathe Hillary pack), backed Clinton. They, not young voters (too fickle), the independents (GOP leaning anyway), and cross over Republicans (not reliable) are the backbone of the Democratic Party. No Democratic or Republican presidential candidate can win the White House without the solid backing of their core supporters. They are the ones who will loyally trudge through rain, sleet and snow to cast their votes, and pony up the cash and people the phone banks for their party.

They have kept Clinton in the hunt for the nomination at the times when it seemed that the Obama surge would sweep her away. They were the ones that have insured that her win the big states strategy has paid off and will continue to pay off for her in the final showdown for the nomination at the Democratic convention.

The second and maybe even more worrisome thing for Obama is that most of the respondents in the Gallup poll gave the nod to Clinton three days before his speech. This could only mean one thing and that's that the sands of popular Democratic voter support had already quietly but decisively begun to shift back to Clinton.

<snip>

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

1. "The Emerging Black GOP Majority" (2006)

One of his books.

[krkaufman]

29. ha! Good to have my impressions of him (TV and commentaries) buttressed ...

... by an objective fact. His arguments above certainly seemed as bereft of reality as a typical BushCo Conservative stance.

edit: For the Hillarites looking to acquaint themselves with the views of their latest prophet, check here.

[madame defarge]

2. Not this loyal Democrat...

a college-educated middle-aged white woman.

[LostinVA]

5. This college-educated middle-aged white woman is for Hillary

:shrug:

[emilyg]

10. So am I.

[Auntie Bush]

16. Me too! n /t

[Andromeda]

34. I'm for Hillary too.

[MattBaggins]

21. This colege educated almost 40

middle class blue collar heterosexual male veteran

supports Obama

[maddiejoan]

22. Holy Crap!

me too!

[Iceburg]

24. Ditto! /nt

[Straight Shooter]

47. This college-educated, self-employed, Italian-American, middle-aged woman is for Hillary, too.

:D

[Maven]

53. Me too!

:hi:

[HockeyMom]

9. Same here

plus a former Independent and Hillary voter twice before.

[adoraz]

3. Rasmussen Tracking and CBS News have Obama up 3

And those are the other 2 newest tracking polls from yesterday.

How are those any less relevant than Gallup?

People who keep depending on Gallup's newest poll keep missing this fact.

[high density]

4. Not me

Are we going to revote all of the states now or what? This buyers remorse shit I would expect from Republicans, but not from fellow Democrats.

[ej510]

6. Sorry but black people like myself have always been the core of the party not Hillary supporters....

whom all crossover.

[xmas74]

17. Aren't women also a core of the party?

According to you, I will cross over since I am a woman and a Hillary supporter-even though I've been with the party since before I could vote and was taught the party values in my Union household outside of Chicago. And for that matter, aren't unions a core of the Dem party too?

Am I missing something here?

[rodeodance]

35. Yes, and yes, you are not missing anything

[Clark2008]

43. Psst... more women support Obama than black people support

Hillary.

I think that's the point.

[Iceburg]

40. Welcome to DU ... apparently the core is just discovering DU/nt

[Mezzo]

42. whom all crossover? More repigs have voted Obama than Clinton...

or haven't you bothered to find out the truth?

[JoFerret]

45. the core of the party has always been

a big messy raucous rag bag of good people.

[Bullet1987]

7. It seems Earl Hutchinson doesn't understand the importance of

crossover appeal.

[democrattotheend]

I did a little analysis of the "core Democrats" claim

And found that a lot of the demographic groups of so-called "core Democrats" that support Clinton, including seniors, Catholics, and whites making less than $50k, actually voted for Bush in 2004. Clinton is doing better among registered Dems, but Obama might be doing better among people who voted for Kerry in 2004. More details http://purplestatepundit.com/blog/election08/is-clinton-really-winning-core-democrats/">here.

[Blue_Roses]

15. he's also doing extremely well among young voters who are a HUGE

voting block this year. Seniors are dying out.

[democrattotheend]

25. People under 30 were the only age group to vote for Kerry

So in some ways they are the core Democrats, not seniors who voted for Bush.

[krkaufman]

30. And *most* importantly, and something the superdelegates need to understand ...

... the *future* of a resurgent Democratic Party.

[islandmkl]

8. "....quietly but decisively begun to shift back to Clinton."

OR not....

but definitely one of the two...

i especially like the part where the 'true Democrats' are the ones backing Hillary...

yeah, that explains it....

the Obama bogus-dems are of no matter....

they won't vote in the GE....they are only participating in the primaries 'for fun', is that the argument??

this is just a cheerleader cheering for his/her team...

reality (and math) has no place in blind-emotion-based editorials....

[Armstead]

11. The list of his previous columns shows that he is strongly opposed to Obama

[BeyondGeography]

19. He started out extremely hostile, now he just masks it

[krkaufman]

31. "now he just masks it" .... none too well. n/t

[PetraPooh]

12. Actually Gallup poll didn't say what this person is saying; it said

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105559/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-Now-47-Obamas-45.aspx

"However, the surge in Democrats' preference for Clinton that Gallup detected earlier in the week has started to move out of the three-day rolling average, and the race is back to a near tie. It is possible that Obama's aggressive efforts to diffuse the Wright story, including a major speech on the race on March 11, have been effective."

So EOH is either lying or can't read.

[DerekJ]

32. "So EOH is either lying or can't read." .. hmm, how about both?!.eom

[otohara]

13. Methinks It's Too Soon

to come to this conclusion.

[Celebration]

14. this dude cannot do maths

Gallup poll shows a dead heat. Note that he conveniently does not discuss actual statistics, because they do not go with his narrative.

[UALRBSofL]

18. Thanks for posting Alamom

Great article. Good news. Keep up the good work. :)

[BenDavid]

20. where the whoremedia went wrong was as soon as obama

finished his speech we had the mediawhores claim this was the gretest speech ever. I thought at one time the mediawhores were going to say it was better then the sermon Jesus gave and is called now the Sermon on the Mount. Right thinking people knew this what was happening and more were actually turned off by the obama speech then were ripping their clothes and laying on the ground and throwing dirt over their bodies.

The coverup had already began. What coverup? The lie obama carried around for a year or so and then in the speech contradicted hisself. Here is proof. "Until yesterday, Obama said the only thing controversial he knew about Rev. Wright was his stand on issues relating to Africa, abortion and gay marriage. …
His initial reaction to the initial ABC News broadcast of Rev. Wright’s sermons denouncing the U.S. was that he had never heard his pastor of 20 years make any comments that were anti-U.S. until the tape was played on air.
But yesterday, he told a different story. “Did I ever hear him make remarks that could be considered controversial while I sat in church? Yes,” he said in his speech yesterday in Philadelphia."

It seems unreasonable to hate whites and then expect them to vote for you. Yet, that seems to be the contradictory basis of Obama’s campaign of reconciliation.

[anamandujano]

33. The whore media is still salivating but they seem afraid to say

anything else.

[rodeodance]

36. The media went bonzo and DU Obamafolk followed like sheepie.

[Raffi Ella]

23. Thanks K&R

:dem:

[RememberWellstone]

26. Yes.

I knew that was the truth of the matter.

[kwenu]

27. Don't think so Earl. The most talented leader in this race is SENATOR OBAMA!!!!!!

[krkaufman]

28. I saw this guy the other night, and he didn't come across as objective

... and comments like "the loathe Hillary pack" extend that impression. Oh, that, and along with the fact that the maroon is trying to discount any beneficial effects of Obama's speech based upon a single polling organization's results for poll data that only minimally stretched beyond the morning of Obama's speech.

Earl's background is obviously not statistics.

Meanwhile, core Democrats have continued to consistently and quietly, backed Clinton.

... or English.

Though he may want to give a career in fiction a try, nonetheless.

[SoCalDem]

37. EO Harrington's quite a character.. read some things he has said

before you take his word as gospel..

Just because he's an African American , does not mean that he's in step with that community..



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/earl-ofari-hutchinson

[Spider Jerusalem]

38. Too fucking bad for them that she has fewer delegates and votes then, innit?

Latest Gallup poll has Obama ahead; this is bullshit. Less than a week's polling means NOTHING; anyone who thinks other wise is DELUDED, or possibly stupid (or maybe both).

[Vinca]

39. It must be disappointing that the polls are turning around again, huh?

Reality sucks.

[Mezzo]

41. Chucrch services today...a LOT of people are saying the same thing...

one pastor from a Methodist Church was saying that it is wrong for ANYONE to judge ANYONE ELSE based on their skin color. Alluded to no one being a typical anything.

I fear Obama is still in it, with this one.

[JoFerret]

44. Maureen Dowd

the "cobra" has a couple of good points today on how obama's speech enables blacks to transcend race but not "typical whites".

From her class background she makes a couple of good points.

I would like to hear more from the "base".

[Misanthrope2]

46. Obama never sought the base.

He always played for race and the Republicans.

[doc03]

48. I want a Democrat in the Whitehouse although

I don't much like Clinton either I think the Rev. Wright thing will do in Obama in the GE. I don't care how many people watch Obama's speach on youtube the vast majority of Americans don't pay any attention to the election until the last couple weeks. I heard one of the talking heads say months ago the Republicans always go for the guy with seniority when in doubt and the Democrats fall in love and lose..

[doc03]

49. Remember the Massachusetts Miracle

a photo of Dukakis in a tank done him in. The Deaniacs a "yeehaw" was his undoing. Al Gore lost his on a sigh, with the help of Nader and Florida. Kerry changed his mind and went goose hunting.

[LiberalAndProud]

50. Truthiness? "and pony up the cash "

There's something missing here.

[MethuenProgressive]

51. The Obamatrons hate threads like this. Kick and rec!!

:kick:

[doc03]

52. I think that has been true since the start

Obama has the latte liberals, young people that won't show up if it rains and the Republicans that will go back home in the GE. :kick:

[qnr]

54. I missed this when first posted

It's been obvious for a while now. The "pet rock" is over.

[stevenleser]

55. This must mean that reality has a well known Obama Bias...

Puhleeze. I can post old and meaningless polls too. The CURRENT Gallup poll shows Obama in the lead, but I am sure you know that.