Is Obama already unelectable after taking only a few punches by mid-March?

[jackson_dem]

We have a batch of new polls out for the key battleground states of Florida (PPP), Ohio (two polls), and Missouri (SurveyUSA). There is also a poll for Kentucky (SurveyUSA). These polls reflect what the national general election polls have shown: Obama's electability is tanking. He started out beating the rethugs easily and once averaged 9-10 points better than Clinton against McCain. Now, as folks learn more about him and he takes a few punches, he actually does worse than Clinton in the poll average against McCain. That is a shift of 6 points in a month alone, showing his glass jaw. If he is this vulnerable in the primaries how bad will he perform after the rethugs send out their heavy artillery during a general? Even Dukakis was able to absorb a Willie Horton attack during the primaries.

Obama has some very fundamental problems, especially with Democrats. It is not inconceivable that if he is the nominee he would bleed away as much Democratic support as Mondale did (24%). The other groups he struggles with are women, whites, seniors, Latinos, and working folks. Unfortunately these polls are not broken down by income.

His negatives will only get higher so his electability numbers still haven't bottomed out...

Clinton's comparative number will be in parentheses.

Florida

Overall: McCain 50, Obama 39 (47-43 with Clinton)

Women: Obama 39 (48 for Clinton)
Democrats: Obama 60, McCain 25 (74-12 with Clinton)

Whites: Obama 31 (he loses by 26, Clinton keeps it down to 11)
Latinos: Obama 41, McCain 52 (Clinton ties McCain with Latinos)

Senior citizens: Obama 33, McCain 54 (Clinton wins 47-43)

Missouri

Overall: Obama 39, McCain 53 (McCain 48, Clinton 46)

Women: Obama 40, McCain 51 (Clinton 52, McCain 40)
He doesn't do much better with men either, just like in FL. He gets 38% and keeps McCain only 3 points lower.

Democrats: Obama 62, McCain 28 (Clinton 83, McCain 10)
he does only 6 points better with rethugs and 2 points better with indies.

Whites: Obama 34, McCain 57 (McCain 52, Clinton 42)
Latinos: Obama actually does four points better among Latinos in MS, a rare state in which he does well with Latinos. Unfortunately, those states are always the ones with small Latino populations. He does poorly, relatively speaking, with them in states like California, Florida, New Jersey, New York, New Mexico, Nevada, and Arizona. Winning the Latino vote in Iowa isn't going to do anything for us but losing it in California, Nevada, or New Jersey will really hurt us.
Other (chiefly Asians): Obama 11, McCain 72 (Clinton 64, McCain 21)

Senior citizens: Obama 36, McCain 55 (Mc 52, Clinton 44)

Obama gets 24% in one of the four regions of the state. He gets 32% in another. Clinton's worst regions are 39 and 43%.

Kentucky

Overall: Obama 28, McCain 64 (McCain 53, Clinton 43)

Women: Obama 29, McCain 61 (Clinton 49, McCain 45)
He actually does worse with men, getting a scant 26% while Clinton gets 37%.

Democrats: Obama 41, McCain 48 (Clinton 60, McCain 34)
Yes you read that correctly. Barack Obama actually loses the Democratic vote in Kentucky. Obamacons? He gets 8% of rethugs. Clinton gets 23%. Obama does get 53% of indies--but Clinton gets 59%.

whites: Obama 24, McCain 67 (McCain 54, Clinton 42)
Latinos: Obama 26, McCain 74 (Clinton 86, McCain 14)
They both get thrashed among "others". Obama does only 8 points better with blacks.

Senior citizens: Obama 29, McCain 65 (McCain 60, Clinton 35)

Kentucky has four regions. Obama gets 18% and 20% in two. His peak is 36%. Clinton's worst regions are 31 and 41%. Her peak is 55% and she ties in a second region.

Ohio

SurveyUSA

Overall: Obama 43, McCain 50 (Clinton 50, McCain 44)

Women: Obama 44, McCain 48 (Clinton 53, McCain 44)
Clinton actually does better with men (she wins 47-45, Obama loses 52-42).

Democrats: Obama 66, McCain 25 (Clinton 80, McCain 12)
Obamacons? Clinton actually does 1% better with rethugs and holds McCain down 1% more than Obama with indies.

Whites: Obama 37, McCain 56 (Clinton 48, McCain 48)
This is another rare state where Obama does better with Latinos. Unfortunately, once again it is a state with a small Latino population. He doesn't do well, relative to Clinton, with Latinos in any state so far with a large Latino population.

Seniors: Obama 36, McCain 55 (Clinton 51, McCain 44)

Ohio has six regions. Obama gets 14% in SE Ohio. Yes. 14%. Clinton gets 38% in that region. Obama wins only Cleveland. Clinton wins three regions and is a dead heat in another.

PPP

Overall: Obama 41, McCain 49 (Clinton 45, McCain 45)

Women: Obama 43, McCain 44 (Clinton 53, McCain 35)
They both get 38% of men.

Democrats: Obama 62, McCain 27 (Clinton 76, McCain 12)
Obamacons? Obama gets 12% of rethugs, only five points more than Clinton (nationally he gets a whole 3% more--as much as Gore did! Remember Gorecons?). Obama loses indies with 37%. Clinton gets 33%.

Whites: Obama 36, McCain 54 (Clinton 46, McCain 46)

Seniors: Obama 42, McCain 49 (Clinton 48, McCain 42)

Can the economy save Obama?

He does beat McCain on the economy in some states--but not by nearly as much as Clinton does. Obama simply has no economic record. We have to beat the rethugs on the economy to win and Obama especially has to since he can't rely on foreign policy or Iraq as much due to the points he automatically loses among many for being someone who began running for president in his second year in Washington.

Clinton's weakness

She does consistently worse with black voters than Obama but when you add up the numbers that pales in comparison to Obama's weaknesses.

[stevietheman]

1. The attacks on our nominee Obama need to end. n/t

n/t

[maddiejoan]

3. He's not our nominee

[stevietheman]

4. The attacks on our nominee Obama need to end. n/t

n/t

[maddiejoan]

14. and he's still not our nominee

[TheWraith]

18. Does the phrase "prohibitive lead" mean anything to you?

There is no credible scenario under which Clinton wins the nomination. Period.

[OzarkDem]

24. No such thing

There are many things that change before a convention and neither candidate will be able to get enough of a majority prior to the convention to lock up the nomination.

Obama supporters need to stop thinking they can write all the rules of this election. You're pushing arbitrary bs.

[roguevalley]

42. things can change. maybe California will fall into the sea. maybe

the earth will tilt the other way on its axis. (I hope none happen but remember these oracles. They could happen too.)

rv, just trying to be helpful even as the san andreas fault line runs under her state in a big way. by the by, the BIG ONE -GOod Friday- which some have re-evaluated as 10.6 on the Richter Scale lasted almost SIX
MINUTES up here. (more helpfulness ... consider it a teachable moment.)

[TheWraith]

47. And maybe Bush will resign, then the sun will turn into a lemon!

So we can all have lemonade.

And once again, we see projection as the big tactic of the Clinton campaign. Suddenly trying to change the formally agreed-to rules, to give Michigan and Florida to Clinton--and calling them "fair" elections, when she was the only one on the ballot in MI--but no, it's Obama supporters who are trying to "write the rules."

Clinton has lost. Period. And particularly with the party destruction and disloyalty she's been showing recently, there's no way that the superdelegates are suddenly going to let her steal the election. If you disagree, please come up with a CREDIBLE scenario that results in her reaching 2025... bearing in mind that the highest elected Democrat in the land, and the head of the DNC, have both publicly stated that there will be no overturning of the popular results.

[LulaMay]

55. Exactly. Obama supporters need to stop claiming the nomination belongs to him somehow. Seriously.

[AllexxisF1]

67. It's called Math.

[AX10]

66. Obama supporters are belligerent.

You will never get anything of meaning out of them.

[berni_mccoy]

45. lol

[rodeodance]

72. I just figured out your problem----you are in SWOON MODE

[JoFerret]

81. You mean fair questions about a primary candidate?

.

[LulaMay]

54. Hear Hear! People need to stop usurping the process. She could be the nominee, could likely be.

People cannot say she'd be stealing anything.

It's ridiculous, and insulting.

[Mags]

5. Oh, yeah, attack Clinton and leave the chosen on alone. If not God will strike you down.

[stevietheman]

7. The attacks on our nominee Obama need to end. n/t

n/t

[Bake]

23. Uh, he's STILL not the nominee

And Geralissimo Francisco Franco is STILL DEAD!

As for the attacks, they've only just BEGUN ... wait until the Pukes and their 527s get rolling. You'll be crying for your mommy.

Bake

[jackson_dem]

6. That has never happened going back to every election since George Washington left

Obamites lived in fantasy land if they thought Obama would be coronated. If he can't take a few punches for a few weeks he will be a disaster if nominated after the rethugs are done with him he may be another Mondale. If you think the priamries are bad wait until the general...

[stevietheman]

8. The attacks on our nominee Obama need to end. n/t

n/t

[JuniperLea]

11. Did I miss the convention? A concession speech?

Nominee? I think not.

[libbygurl]

36. Broken record here? Truth hurts? He's still not the nominee.

Watch the poll numbers for O drop, and keep dropping.

[VeraAgnes]

28. It's a reasonable question. I felt no malice.

I don't like this Primary drag-out any more than the next Democrat. Looking at the stats of the remaining two Democratic candidates is a daily chore we all do....this waiting is stressful. Lets be kind to each other. :hug:

Peace.

[theredpen]

51. It's the least malicious post jackson_dem has done in a while

Yay, jackson_dem. :applause:

[emilyg]

49. Did I miss something?

[rodeodance]

71. OUR " nominee?---IS HE ALLREADY ANNOINTED??--SILLLYNESS!

[joshcryer]

80. Psst, poster wasn't serious. ;)

[joshcryer]

79. HAHAHA!

Best post ever.

[Hawkeye-X]

2. Wait till next week - the polls will be reversed.

sorry, but your candidate is still out of the picture.

[theredpen]

52. It's interesting how all these dire poll results represent data ended 3-16

...while tracking polls representing the last couple of days show sings of a rebound.

[Mooney]

9. Did you mean to say "unelectable" in your thread title?

You might want to fix that.

[jackson_dem]

16. Thanks

[Mooney]

46. No problem.

I may not care for your choice of candidate, but I WILL NOT TOLERATE confusing thread titles.

[JuniperLea]

10. Polls schmolls...

I just don't get why people are so ready to throw one candidate or another out. Why can't we just let this take it's natural progression?

[Mooney]

12. Because this very long primary season is getting annoying. n/t

[JuniperLea]

15. Yep. I can agree with that!

This whole thing started waaaaay too early. Who is to blame for that, do you remember? I just know I should be cursing someone right now!

[elixir]

31. I'm with you, let them slug it out. It makes them stronger and keeps them in front of the public.

As long as they don't soil themselves too much. What's happened so far needed to be said before Denver, a fully vetted candidate is the only answer against McCain.

[JuniperLea]

33. "A fully vetted candidate"

I like the sound of that! Yes! I agree!

:applause:

I think it's our patriotic duty to fully vet all candidates. I'd like to see DUers sticking to the truth, though. And I'm finding far too many of them, on both sides, wouldn't know the truth if it sashayed up and smacked them upside the head! You can give some people links and quotes and lead them to the truth, but they still don't get it. I think there's a fair amount of Kool Aid being swilled in both camps.

I voted for Edwards... I have no horse in this race... except the truth:)

[Recursion]

48. Too bad we don't have one, anywhere :(

Having actual skeletons in your closet dug up in the past is not "vetting".

[jackson_dem]

53. True but Hill is the closest to a fully vetted candidate possible

[ericgtr]

13. You mean after days of endless pouncing by unified dems and republicans?

After a solid week of it he has proven he's above it and came out on top. He's lost some points but not nearly as much as some of you would have liked. The tide is turning back in his direction.

[jackson_dem]

17. No. 1) his problems began well before pastorgate 2) no one cares about his speech outside of Obamite

It isn't even in the news anymore to any significant degree or gone altogether, depending on which outlet you are talking about. See this thread http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5160905#5161117

[ericgtr]

20. Is that so? Then where is all the Wright news that was plastered on the news 24/7 then?

Still on the news all the time as it was before the speech?

[TheWraith]

22. What makes you think anybody here cares about your delusional spin?

You've spent weeks screaming every negative thing you can think of about Obama from every rooftop you can climb, and predicting his imminent doom on an almost daily basis. You've been proven wrong again, and again, and again. Why do you assume that anybody believes anything you're saying when it's so clearly untrue?

[NJSecularist]

32. You are right. And he ignores everybody who calls him out on his shit n/t

[cali]

43. completely

his flat out hate of Obama stems from the fact that Obama edged St Johny out of the race. Go read some of his earlier posts when Edwards was still a candidate. He's pathetic.

[NJSecularist]

44. He has some nerve to demand Obama supporters to dispute his posts

But when they do, and they call him out on his lies and spin, he puts them on ignore.

[zabet]

19. Looking that way.

:kick: and R

[DrFunkenstein]

21. When There Are Issue Differences On Health Care, Economy, Iraq The Dynamic Will

Change in Obama's favor.

[OzarkDem]

27. As the SUSA report noted

Obama has no history on economic policy. His health care and Iraq policies are inferior to Clintons. He doesn't bring much to the table, sorry.

[zulchzulu]

25. It is way, way, way too early to be using national polls on a race 8 months from now

WHEN Obama is the nominee, he will make mince meat of Grandpa McCain't.

It's very simple framing. If you want more endless wars, go with McCain't. If you liked the Bush years, well, gee golly, how about some more... If you think spending trillions of dollars in wars is what our economy needs right now and keeping the tax cuts for the rich, then McCain't is your man.

McCain't showed himself to be a dumbass the other day with Al Qaeda in Iran. He is going to get spanked in the fall and the RNC knows it.

If we want to give the Repugs a nice little gift to empower their base, let's give them the Clintons to get every monkey and their uncle to get out and vote.

Wait...that's not going to happen anyway. It is nearly mathematically impossible that Mrs. Clinton will get the nomination anyway.

[elixir]

26. NIcely done, JD. But I didn't expect anything less.

[democrattotheend]

29. He's having a rought week. I hold out hope that he can bounce back

If the polling continues to look like this consistently for a month, I'll start worrying.

When it comes to black voters, you also have to factor in turnout. If blacks feel Clinton got the nomination unethically (which is likely, given her delegate deficit), they will be less inclined to come out and vote for her. They probably won't vote for McCain but they might not vote at all, which can be just as damaging.

[goletian]

30. i suggest you consider the glass half full, because hillary is not going to win

focus on bashing mccain instead. youre only hurting your party by bashing the most likely winner. hillarys chances of winning at this point are slim to none. accept it. embrace it. plan for it.

[LulaMay]

57. Stop predicting the future and claiming the nomination is his. Maybe you are bashing the winner.

You don't know.

[frazzled]

34. If we continue to make him into "Scary Black Man by association" ...

If we use the words of another person to caricature this man, this candidate--ignoring completely his long public record in Springfield and the Senate, as well as his words and actions and writing over the last dozen or so years--as a secret leftist black separatist Scary Negro, then, yes, we will make him unelectable. Because there are enough people in the country just ready to buy into such a cartoon.

I know the Hillary supporters are just gleeful that this is happening, but they shouldn't be. Not only on moral grounds and political principle, and because it is an attack from the right, but because this will bloody the probable Democratic nominee beyond all possibility of election.

If you prefer the war-crazed, fact-challenged, Bush-policy supporting old guy, then continue to paint this crude caricature of Obama--turn him into the few minutes of soundbites we have heard from Jeremiah Wright. Believe me, they will do the same thing to Hillary if somehow she should manage to secure the nomination as a result of this sad, frankly racist jihad going on in the media. (I'm not saying she was behind it, just that she could end up benefiting from it). They will turn her into a lesbian terrorist based on something Marian Wright Edelman once said, or something. I'm sure they have tons of video ready to go (including her kiss of Mrs. Arafat after a speech saying Israel should not exist.) And she will lose, too.

Let's just be frank: if Obama becomes unelectable it will be because racism succeeded. I hope that will make you pleased.

[The Backlash Cometh]

35. Oh, God. Don't do anything based on Florida.

[libbygurl]

37. Thanks for all your research work, JD! Great compilation! nt

[pointsoflight]

38. What will you say when...

...his numbers rebound to right where they were within a week or two? Will you come back here and see that he is electable after all? Or are you just being disingenuous here?

[jackson_dem]

39. They were pretty much the same a week ago

He has been sliding since last spring. It didn't start last week. When it really took off was the week before Ohio and Texas, when the msm gave him some bad press for once.

[Froward69]

40. I blame Hillary

and her selfishness.

[LulaMay]

56. Oh, women are sooooo selfish! How can SHE still this from him? POPPYCOCK.

This is an election. Grow up.

[Froward69]

62. It is obvious she would rather

sink all of our aspirations for a Democratic president... if it is not her.

[futureliveshere]

41. In fact Obama is already bouncing back in the polls

Obama Clinton
March 19: 47 42
March 18: 45 44 -- Obama's speech
March 17: 46 44
March 16: 47 44
March 15: 46 45
March 14: 50 42
March 13: 48 41 -- Wright hits news
March 12: 47 42
March 11: 48 41 -- Mississippi
March 10: 46 44
March 9: 45 47
March 8: 45 46 --Wyoming
March 7: 43 49
March 6: 43 48
March 5: 43 48
March 4: 44 46 -- OH, TX, VT, RI

from Kos:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/19/133848/790/...

[theredpen]

50. The Ohio data is already stale

1. Any data taken prior to Obama's "race speech" represents what happened to Obama's polling numbers during the low point of the "Wright" flap.

2. McCain gained against both candidates, although not nearly as much against Clinton.

Will Obama rebound? We'll know when the poll data is returned on Friday or early next week.

[moobu2]

58. Baracks numbers will get much worse against McCain in the GE if he’s the nominee

If he's our nominee, McCain wont even have to work hard to win..

[anonymous171]

59. "A few punches?" How about full-scale media assault?

[Lilith Velkor]

60. That'll happen later, if he is nominated

This is only a few punches.

Have you been asleep for the past sixteen years, or do you really think all that shouting was about the Clintons, and not blind partisanship?

[moobu2]

61. I wouldn’t call it "full-scale media assault", the media is just beginning to ask questions they

should have asked months ago. And after being intensly unfair to Hillary for so long, and giving Barack a free ride etc... It probably just looks that way to Barack supporters because they're used to seeing Barack in the most favorable light. Unfortunately, the media didn’t do it’s job so now it looks like were stuck with another GE looser.

[cloudythescribbler]

63. The goal of HRC and others is to insure no ALTERNATIVE Democrat could be elected

That is the underlying meme and agenda of Jackson_Dem

[Orsino]

64. Ludicrous. n/t

[BlueManDude]

65. They're both un-electable and always have been.

[Scurrilous]

68. The attacks on our nominee Obama need to end. n/t

[rodeodance]

75. HA HA HA "our nominee obama "---on my gawd~~ Bubblemania

[Citizen Kang]

69. How is Hillary more electable?

You cherrypicked 4 states, ignored several other polls showing Obama trailing McCain in the National Polls by a smaller number than Hilary. And yet not a word on how Hillary is more electable?

Got polls for Washington, Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa, Nevada or other states where Obama beats McCain and Hillary loses to McCain? No? Those don't fit into your meme?

Hillary is less electable than McCain, even more so if she keeps up these underhanded tactics to steal it from Obama. How many real Democrats are going to show up for Hillary then?

Answer: ZERO

Fraud.

[rodeodance]

73. One thing for sure-The BO 'electabilty ' myth--is just that- a MYTH

[jefferson_dem]

70. Didn't you call this same thing (citing state polls) "cherry picking" last week?

:shrug:

[rodeodance]

74. rec

[Hottest Housewife]

76. And the Other Shoe has yet to drop

Rev. Wright is nothing compared to what Barry is still hiding.

Barry thought that he was so clever, hiding it like he did, in plain view.

When the vetting is complete, no Super Delegate will stand with Barry.

[SeaLyons]

77. K&R

[WDIM]

78. Looks like Clinton would lose to McCain too.

And trust me she would. especially after she has to steal the nomination with superdelegates.