Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login

HuffPo: Mississippi: "LIMBAUGH EFFECT" Softens Blow for Hillary Clinton ("HillPublicans" )

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
mod mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 01:22 PM
Original message
HuffPo: Mississippi: "LIMBAUGH EFFECT" Softens Blow for Hillary Clinton ("HillPublicans" )
Edited on Sat Mar-15-08 01:36 PM by mod mom
'Limbaugh Effect' Softens Blow For Hillary Clinton

John K. Wilson

Posted March 12, 2008 | 09:33 AM (EST)

Hillary Clinton suffered a huge defeat last night in
Mississippi, and now faces an insurmountable pledged
delegate lead by Barack Obama. But what most pundits
missed was the fact that Obama's victory would have been
even more overwhelming in Mississippi (and he might have
won the popular vote in Texas) if not for the "Limbaugh
effect": Republicans voting in the Democratic primary in
order to undermine Barack Obama and help John McCain.

Approximately 25% of Clinton's voters in Mississippi
were Republicans voting for a candidate they hate in
order to try to undermine Barack Obama. Obama's 61-37
margin of victory in Mississippi would have been around
70-30 without Clinton's Republican voters, and Obama
would have easily expanded his delegate win there from
19-14 to 24-9.

In the voting during January and February, Republicans
were an average of 3.8% of the voters in the Democratic
Primary, and they heavily supported Obama. But for the
primaries in March, in Texas, Ohio, and Mississippi,
Republicans have been 8% of the voters in the Democratic
primary, and now they heavily support Hillary Clinton.
This is definite proof of the "Limbaugh effect" coming
through. Overall, 1.36% of the voters in the January and
February primaries were Republicans who marked their
ballot for Clinton; yet, 5.67% of the voters in the
March primaries were Republicans voting for Clinton.
Barack Obama's Republican numbers in the March primary
showed only a modest increase, probably from moderate
Republicans who shifted their support to Obama once John
McCain's campaign was assured of victory.

In Ohio and Texas, 9% of the voters were Republicans,
and they split almost evenly between Obama and Clinton.
These votes, more than doubling the percentage of
Republican voters in earlier primaries, gave Hillary
Clinton a big advantage since Obama typically won more
than twice as many voters as she did in previous
primaries. In other words, about 3% of the voters in
Ohio and Texas were Republicans newly voting for Hillary
Clinton out of purely tactical reasons, to try to ruin
the Democratic race.

The "HillPublicans" (insincere Republicans voting for
Hillary) became a much larger force in the Mississippi
election. Fully 9% of the people voting in the
Democratic primary were Republicans voting for Clinton.
That means that almost one-quarter of Clinton's votes in
Mississippi came from Republicans, nearly all of whom
hate Clinton but wanted to distort the results of the
Democratic primary. By contrast, Obama's Republican
vote, at 3%, was similar to his historical average
throughout the primaries.


< >

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
tibbiit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 01:29 PM
Response to Original message
1. Correct me but
Havent the pukes screamed bloody murder when thinking that dems have voted in their primaries to try to screw the vote for the puke?
of course we know its okay if your a republican.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
mod mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 01:32 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. It's called projection. Republican Cross-over was documented in the movie "American Blackout"
Which chronicles how the GOP cross-overed (blatantly) to defeat Cynthia McKinney for her out spoken opposition of the war.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
mod mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 01:29 PM
Response to Original message
2. In Ohio:
Ohio GOP roots for Hillary

One of the worst-kept secrets of the Ohio presidential primary is that Republican party leaders have a candidate they are rooting for on the Democratic side.

Her name is Hillary Clinton, and they believe that if she wins the Ohio primary and goes on to become the Democratic nominee, she will be the one who unites their dispirited and divided party and give them their best chance of keeping the White House this fall.

It is a belief that the Clinton campaign says is wrong-headed and they will campaign across the state for the next three weeks making the argument that their battle-tested, experienced candidate is the only one who can go toe-to-toe with John McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee this fall.

Shell need to do some convincing, fast. For Clinton, Ohios March 4 primary is looking more and more critical.



▪ What might have actually happened in Ohio and Texas? Tin foil hat?
▪ Clip:
: "Rush, I understand that the Rush Limbaugh audience is mobilizing in Texas for Hillary. Am I hearing that right?"

: "I don't know if the audience is mobilizing or not. I am urging people I am using a phrase the Republicans our nominee is chosen. It's John McCain.

Texas is open. And I want Hillary to stay in this, Laura. This is too good a soap opera. We need Barack Obama bloodied up politically, and it's obvious that the Republicans are not going to do it and don't have the stomach for it.

As you probably know, we're getting all kinds of memos from the RNC saying not to be critical there. Mark MacKinnon of McCain's campaign says he'll quit if they get critical over Obama.

This is the presidency of the United States you're talking about. I want our party to win. I want the Democrats to lose. They're in the midst of tearing themselves apart right now. It is fascinating to watch, and it's all going to stop if Hillary loses.

So yes, I'm asking to cross over and, if they can stomach it I know it's a difficult thing to do to vote for a Clinton but it will sustain this soap opera, and it's something I think we need. It would be fun, too."

Turned away at poll? Click here
Some are told to wait - or come back later

In that heavily Republican county, officials weren't prepared for the high number of Democratic ballots requested. Some voters waited for more than an hour for new ballots to be delivered; others were asked to come back later or asked to go to the county Board of Elections to vote.

The reason: a wave of "crossover" voting, in which normally Republican voters asked for Democratic ballots. In Clermont County, turnout surged to 43 percent Tuesday - compared with just 31 percent in the 2004 presidential primary.


Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner said there was also a "crossover problem" in Akron and elsewhere in Summit County where many Republicans and non-enrolled Ohioans voted Democratic.


Of Clermont County's 128,128 registered voters, 37,714 are registered Republicans and 14,496 are registered Democrats. With all precincts counted, 26,279 people had cast Democratic ballots and 28,032 had cast Republican ballots.

Warren County has 12,440 registered Democrats and 41,377 registered Republicans. With all precincts reporting, that county was reporting 27,855 Democratic ballots cast and 28,683 Republican.


GOP voters crossing over in large numbers
Posted by Tom Ott, Michael Scott, Joe Wagner & Maggi Martin March 04, 2008 14:51PM
Categories: At the polls

Poll watchers throughout Ohio are noting large numbers of Republican voters crossing over to vote in the Democratic Primary between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

In the Republican roost of Chagrin Falls, veteran poll worker Liz McFadden was amazed at the number of people jumping the party's ship. Democrats accounted for 70 percent of the voters in her precinct, one of seven at the village's high school.

"That's a complete reversal of what it normally is, even more so," she said. "I've never seen a switch like this."

The defectors had motives both pure and sinister.



Cross-over voting under Ohio law

March 4, 2008

Edward B. Foley
Director, Election Law @ Moritz
Robert M. Duncan/Jones Day Designated Professor of Law
Moritz College of Law

Blogs at both the Plain Dealer and Dispatch are reporting Republican cross-over votes in the Democratic candidate for Senator Clinton on the ground that she would be an easier nominee for Senator McCain to beat. It is unclear how widespread this phenomenon is and whether, if calculable, could make a difference in either the statewide total popular vote or the awarding of delegates between Senators Clinton and Obama. There is also the question whether it is legal, and if not, whether it is remediable in any way.

Although it is widely reported that Ohio permits Republicans to vote in the Democratic primary (and vice versa), that is not technically true. Ohio law does permit voters to switch party affiliation on the day of the primary, but it has a rather awkward mechanism that attempts to ascertain that the switch is sincereand to prevent insincere party-raiding of the kind that (as described above) is being reported today.

Section 3513.19 of the Ohio Revised Code states that it is the duty of poll workers in Ohio to challenge the right of person to vote in a particular partys primary if a poll worker doubts the persons eligibility based on the ground (among others) that the person is "not affiliated with or is not a member of the political party whose ballot the person desires to vote. The same section further specifies that the poll worker is to determine the voters previous party affiliation by examining the voting records of the past two years. If those records show the voter to be a Republican, for example, then before giving the voter a Democratic ballot in the current primary, the statute then directs the poll worker to have the voter sign a statement, made under penalty of election falsification, that the person desires to be affiliated with and supports the principles of the political party whose primary ballot the person desires to vote.

This statement is supposed to be the test of the voters sincerity in switching party affiliation. Section 3513.20 of the Code make clear that a voter who refuses to sign the statement is to receive a provisional rather than regular ballot. Indeed, even if the voter is willing to sign the statement, but the majority of poll workers at the precinct believe the voter is not sincere in switching parties, then the poll workers are to give the voter a provisional rather than regular ballot.


Tuesday, March 4

An Obama-Hater for Clinton, Temporarily

Meet Todd Appelbaum, a 46-year-old from Columbus, who wore a shirt that says Osama for Obama to the Clinton campaigns election-night event in Ohio last night.
The white t-shirt, with an image of Barack Obama dressed in traditional Somali garb, is adorned with a blue Hillary Clinton button, although Appelbaum is not what one would call a real Hillary Clinton supporter.
I voted for Hillary today, he said, because Im concerned that, God forbid, Barack Obama will beat McCain. The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Don't Call Ohio Too Soon
That's my advice to the news media tonight, in the event of a close Democratic primary. As returns start to come in from Ohio this evening, we should keep in mind circumstances that will probably result in more outstanding ballots on Election Night than in other states, and maybe even more than is typical for Ohio. If that's true, a margin that appears insurmountable on paper -- even with all precincts nominally reported -- may actually be smaller than it appears.

Here are the big things that might cause there to be a large number of yet-to-be-counted ballots than usual on election night:

- Provisional Ballots. Ohio heavily relies on provisional ballots, which are used for people who've moved, who don't have required ID, and whose names don't appear on the registration list when they go to vote, among other things. Most of us probably remember the delay in calling the 2004 election, when Bush led Kerry by some 136,000 votes with approximately 158,000 provisional ballots left to be verified and counted. When these ballots were eventually counted, they cut Bush's margin by about 18,000 votes. In November 2006, an even higher percentage of Ohio voters cast provisional ballots, over 3%. In light of Ohio's new ID rules, still not completely familiar to many voters, and potential problems with its statewide registration list, we can expect lots of provisionals today as well. Voters have 10 days after the election to bring in their information, and it will be a while after that before we know how many of the provisionals will be counted and who they're cast for.

- Residual Votes. These are ballots that don't register a valid vote, at least when they're run through automatic tabulators. They include undervotes (a ballot that doesn't register a choice) and overvotes (a ballot that registers more than the allowed number of choices). Both can sometimes result from ambiguous marks with paper-based voting systems, but some of the undervotes may be recoverable through a manual recount. Under Ohio law, a ballot on which a voter circles the candidates name or makes a mark with an instrument that can't be recognized by tabulating equiment should eventually be counted. As I explained in Sunday's post, we can expect a significant number of residual votes in Ohio today, because a large number of voters will be voting with central-count optical scan equipment that doesn't allow voters to check for mistakes before casting their votes. Cuyahoga County will be especially hard hit, but other counties will also be affected given that voters in touchscreen counties are allowed to vote a paper ballot on request. If the race winds up being tight, it will be important to know how many residual votes there are -- especially in the Cleveland area.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
mod mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-15-08 01:39 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. OH: Kucinich, Challenging the 10,000 Republican Democrats For A Day
Kucinich, Challenging the 10,000 Republican Democrats For A Day

Edited on Wed Mar-12-08 09:49 AM by G_j

In Ohio's primary election in the 10th Congressional District last week, 10,000 registered Republicans switched their party affiliation on election day and became "Democrats for a Day" - allowing them to try to unseat the one Congressman who has been a national leader on every issue that reflects the core values of real Democrats: Rep. Dennis Kucinich.

10,000 Republicans in one Congressional District! In a race where his opposition was supported by Republican media, Republican contributors, Republican advisors, and a Republican political agenda.

In this special video message from Dennis he explains what happened, why, and how you can help to meet the challenge that will surely be mounted again to put that seat in the Republican "win column" in November.

They tried. They failed. But, they'll try again.

With your support, we stopped them last week. And with your continued help, we can demonstrate in the next 10 days that we intend to stop them in November - but only with your help.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Fri Jul 28th 2017, 07:43 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators

Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC